OK, so I did badly on those predictions I just made.

Suffice it to say that I missed all the actual big surprises (The Reader, the Winslet switch, the Dark Knight snub, Michael Shannon, etc.), instead predicting my own big surprises that didn't pan out (Frost/Nixon snubbed for WALL•E, Patel in lead, Marsdan, etc.). I was on to something with the surprises, but my predictions still suffered for it. So basically I did worse than if I'd just played it safe. Oh well. Maybe next time.

I'll be light on the oscar stuff this year, just sayin'... though there will be more content in the near future.

OK, so here are the oscar nomination predictions that I barely have time to do...

Sorry, to anyone still reading. The blog kind of died over the past few weeks. I've been very busy with real life... making my thesis film and whatnot. But I feel like I should at least make some oscar predictions, on the record. So here goes:

BEST PICTURE
Slumdog Millionaire
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Milk
The Dark Knight
WALL•E

Mostly wishful thinking, I guess, but I'm gonna stick my neck out and guess that the generally unremarkable Frost/Nixon takes a dive for the very remarkable WALL•E... even though my mind says Milk is the one most likely to be snubbed.

BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle
David Fincher
Gus Van Sant
Christopher Nolan
Darren Aronofsky

Just a hunch that best pic and best director will yield two different surprises. Consensus seems to be forming that The Wrestler is building momentum and Aronofsky is the most likely director to surprise here. Though I have a lingering feeling that Van Sant could actually emerge as the lone director. We'll see.

BEST ACTOR
Sean Penn
Mickey Rourke
Frank Langella
Clint Eastwood
Dev Patel

Yeah, I said it. Dev Patel will be nominated HERE, according to my crazy predictions. As will Clint Eastwood. I'm opting for the total Brangelina snub... dangerous, but with a potentially big payoff if I'm right.

BEST ACTRESS
Meryl Streep
Anne Hathaway
Sally Hawkins
Melissa Leo
Kate Winslet

Jolie is probably in, but I refuse to admit it. This lineup would be so sweet... and I think there is a decent chance of it happening.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Heath Ledger
Philip Seymour Hoffman
Robert Downey Jr.
Josh Brolin
Dev Patel

OK, so here's where I hedge my bets. I really do think Patel will get a lot of votes in lead. But it'd also be crazy to bet against him here, for the simple reason that there's just no one to replace him. I think Shannon and Franco are dead in the water, frankly, mostly cause of lack of love for their films (or in Franco's case, just not ENOUGH love for the film to get it multiple nods here). The only other reasonable alternative is Eddie Marsdan, but Happy-Go-Lucky is on very shaky ground as well. If Hawkins is iffy, then I don't think he has much of a shot. So Patel it is. As long as he gets nominated SOMEwhere, I reap rewards. Hee.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams
Viola Davis
Penélope Cruz
Marisa Tomei
Kate Winslet

I wanted to be ballsy and predict Kate for The Reader in lead, but I really think that in this case, the category placement has set in. It's just how people see it at this point. It's won the globe and BFCA in this category, for chrissakes. But I hope I'm wrong... I really want Cruz to win this award. I've also lost faith in Henson and have gained faith in Adams (after that BAFTA nod). It seems that there are in fact people who love her more than Viola Davis.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Happy-Go-Lucky
Rachel Getting Married
Milk
WALL•E
Vicky Cristina Barcelona

There are a TON of possibilities here. It seems like they should all be able to get in. But they can't. So I just went with the most obviously easy gets: the Pixar film, the Woody Allen film, the Mike Leigh film, the best pic contender, and the nepotism/quirky indie spot (which also just happens to be the most deserving of them all). The Wrestler seems a likely spoiler except for the fact that even the film's biggest fans (Nat, Nick, etc.) haven't been nominating its script, even as they give it love in every other category. In Bruges also really seems poised to score here, but I just can't see it getting in over any of these five. We'll see.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Slumdog Millionaire
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader

I think The Dark Knight will take a back seat to The Reader in this category. The other four are pretty locked in. Rev Road is not even close here, I don't think.

Alright, now here's how I think the 5 most nominated films will do:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: 11 nods
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Film Editing
Best Cinematography
Best Art Direction
Best Costume Design
Best Makeup
Best Visual Effects
Best Original Score
Best Sound

The Dark Knight: 11 nods
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Supporting Actor
Best Film Editing
Best Cinematography
Best Art Direction
Best Makeup
Best Visual Effects
Best Original Score
Best Sound
Best Sound Effects Editing

Slumdog Millionaire: 9 nods
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best (Supporting?) Actor
Best Film Editing
Best Cinematography
Best Original Score
Best Original Song
Best Sound

WALL•E: 7 nods
Best Picture
Best Original Screenplay
Best Sound
Best Sound Effects Editing
Best Original Score
Best Original Song
Best Animated Feature

Milk: 6 nods
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Original Screenplay
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actor
Best Film Editing

I guess I'm being optimistic. We'll see in a few hours...

NSFC predictions and winners

BEST PICTURE
My prediction: WALL•E
My alternate: The Wrestler
Could it happen? The Class
Actual winner: Waltz with Bashir

Well, I got the animated part right... but wow.


BEST DIRECTOR
My prediction: Mike Leigh, Happy-Go-Lucky
My alternate: Andrew Stanton, WALL•E
Or will they go with Boyle again?
Actual Winner: Mike Leigh

Yay for me! Is he in contention for an oscar nod? He sure has done well with the critics. No one else really has a claim on the "lone director" spot. So I think if it's not him, the directors will most likely match the best pic nominees.


BEST ACTOR
My prediction: Mickey Rourke
My alternate: Sean Penn
Or maybe... Richard Jenkins?
Actual winner: Sean Penn

Well, I was close. I assumed they'd love The Wrestler a little bit more than they did. But I guess the critics are really getting behind Sean Penn for the win. And why shouldn't they? He'll need to really seem like a sweeper to scoop up oscar #2.


BEST ACTRESS
My prediction: Sally Hawkins
My alternate: Anne Hathaway
Can she win one? Kristin Scott-Thomas
Actual winner: Sally Hawkins

This was fairly easy, I think. They usually go for someone who hasn't yet gotten the critical attention they deserve, but in this case, the established critical favorite STILL hasn't locked up as a nominee, so they're giving her one final push. Good.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
My prediction: Heath Ledger
My alternate: Bill Irwin
Or maybe... one of the Milk guys?
Actual winner: Eddie Marsan, Happy-Go-Lucky

D'oh! Deep down, I kinda knew they'd go with someone other than Ledger. But for some reason, I forgot all about Eddie Marsan. He and Bill Irwin are sharing the annual "why can't they get traction?" slot. And he did seem like the type who they'd prop up. What was I thinking? Oops.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
My prediction: Marisa Tomei
My alternate: Penelope Cruz
Will they throw her a bone? Rosemarie DeWitt
Actual winner: Hanna Schygulla, The Edge of Heaven

WAAAY outta left field... but that's to be expected with this group. And yay for me for having actually seen this movie! I didn't care for it as much as most people did, but Hanna Schygulla was very good. And bold choices are always fun.

BEST SCREENPLAY
My prediction: Rachel Getting Married
My alternate: Happy-Go-Lucky
Could it score here? The Class
Actual winner: Happy-Go-Lucky


Well, I knew they'd like Happy-Go-Lucky. Just didn't know it would be to THIS extent. I thought for sure Rachel Getting Married would score with this group somewhere, and this seemed like the most likely place. But alas, they really REALLY love Mike Leigh. So there you go.

BEST DOCUMENTARY
My prediction: Trouble the Water (kill the Man on Wire sweep!)
My alternate: Man on Wire
Actual Winner: Man on Wire

Boring.

Well, anyway... looking at the balloting scores, WALL•E actually tied for 2nd (with Happy-Go-Lucky) in best picture, so I wasn't that far off. Rourke and Ledger were also 2nd in their categories. And Viola Davis was actually numerically tied with Schygulla in supporting actress, but since she was on fewer ballots, she lost the tiebreaker (Cruz was in 3rd).

This has gotta be disappointing for Rachel Getting Married and The Wrestler, neither of which got anywhere with this group. I thought one or both of them would get a lot of love here. But you never can tell. Always an interesting group, that NSFC.

Wow, why didn't I watch THIS on New Year's Eve?

My family decided to go the traditional route, so I got stuck with Dick Clark, Ryan Seacrest, and that hyperactive Kate Hudson wannabe. But I bet they would've watched CNN, had they known Kathy and Anderson were on.

p.s. Just come out already, Anderson. It's time.