Some early bets on the globe noms...

It's kinda dumb to be doing this so early, and kinda random to be doing it right now, but I predict that the globe best picture nominees will be:


DRAMA

Babel (4 or 5 noms)

Flags of our Fathers (3 or 4 noms)

The Good Shepherd (4 or 5 noms)

United 93 (2 noms)

World Trade Center (6-8 noms)




































The drama category's tricky so early in the year, with only two of these films having seen release, but globe noms are based so much on prerelease hype anyway that I figured I should just go with what looks good from a distance. I don't expect all (or even most) of these to carry over into oscar noms, but do they ever? No. They don't.

I feel pretty confident in predicting United 93 here, cause you don't need a high nomination tally to get a best pic nom at the globes the way you do at the oscars. I could see it getting best pic and director slots pretty easily. World Trade Center still needs to prove its worth in box office terms (I feel like it may have been better to just release it at the last minute and ride the hype with this one), but I think it'll stick it out and place (it has the potential for lots of nods, and could still hit very big with awards groups). I think sentiment will be with the two 9/11 films, since they both turned out to be pretty good (or at least it seems so; I've still gotta see the Stone film), and it's tough to pull off dramatizing such a recent and sensitive event without just f***ing it up completely.

Flags of our Fathers is Eastwood, and the HFPA have nominated everything else of his recently, so why not this one? It looks like the baitest one yet. All Eastwood's films have ever needed to be is "pretty good" in order to place, anyway. Why do people love him so much? I'm hoping the academy at least will think twice this time before nominating Eastwood and Haggis yet AGAIN, but the HFPA has no such scruples. They'll nominate their favorites every single year if they feel like it. Need proof? See: Nicole Kidman and ScarJo.

The Good Shepherd looks to me like the safest of this year's big prestige offerings. It's period, it's star-studded, it's DeNiro. That's all I have to say, really.

And Babel, while a longshot for best picture at the oscars, probably has what it takes to place here. It's apparently great, and has a couple of globe favorites (Pitt and Blanchett) and an up-and-comer poised for his first nod (Bernal). If it gets a big nomination tally here, that gives it a leg up in at least getting that lone director nod that it seems just right for.

Obviously a case can be made for Little Children, The Good German and others, but they have enough working against them to give me pause. I think these five seem like the most likely. So now, on to...


COMEDY/MUSICAL

The Devil Wears Prada (2 noms)

Dreamgirls (8-10 noms)

Little Miss Sunshine (1 or 2 noms)

A Prairie Home Companion (1 nom)

Stranger Than Fiction (3 or 4 noms)







































I feel MUCH more confident in these five.

The comedy categories are always easier, for a number of reasons. There are always fewer standout comedies to choose from, and more that emerge early as contenders; since films need not be oscarbait in order to be nominated in this category, many nominees come from earlier in the year. I think we've seen three of the nominees already. And while it may be wishful thinking, this lineup has balance and diversity: you've got your big studio musical, your smaller "sort of musical/sort of comedy" thing, your indie critical darling, your mainstream sleeper hit, and your... well... your oscarbait dramedy that's strategically placed in this category.

Speaking of Stranger Than Fiction, its advance buzz has been good, and though I doubt that it'll play well at the oscars (it seems like a bit of a cheap ripoff of The Truman Show - right down to the "comedian goes dramatic" hook - and even Truman wasn't nominated for the oscar), I think it'll find a place here. It should also eclipse Talladega Nights, which might've had a better shot in this category if a more awards-friendly Will Ferrell vehicle weren't arriving later this year.

A Prairie Home Companion, I think, will slip in with no other nominations. It has solid reviews and a big ensemble of big names that won't be nominated individually. Best Comedy/Musical is a good place to reward films that are good but have no rewardable standout elements (this may have an original song they could honor, though I don't know what it is, and they might honor Streep for this, but I doubt it). And if you have both music AND comedy (and even drama!), as Prairie does, then your chances in this category are that much better.

And speaking of good films with few viable nomination possibilities... enter Little Miss Sunshine (did you like that pun? huh? yeah, you did.) Just about everyone likes this film (including me), and many love it (including me), yet I don't think it has much of a shot at the oscars... in anything. Original screenplay is a definite possibility, but I'm not holding my breath. I just feel like it'll fall through the cracks for some reason. But anyway, one place I think it'll definitely show up is here, the perfect place to honor this little gem. If it lands on as many top ten lists as I think it will, and lands a few shiny critics' prizes, then it should have this slot all locked up. Unfortunately, this will probably be its only globe nomination, unless Carrell or the screenplay can get some action... and of course it won't win. But maybe I'm underestimating it; if the critics pull a Sideways and really rally behind this movie, it might get more play than I'm expecting. And it has been compared to Sideways, so... it could happen... maybe...

Anyway, the next practically-sure-thing is another of the summer's sweetest surprises, Meryl Streep's The Devil Wears Prada (I word this as if she actually owns the film, but hey, come on, she does). This may not seem like best picture material to some (and unfortunately it didn't hold up quite as well as I'd have liked on a second viewing), but I'm confident that it'll place here. Why? Well, there's always something in this category that's solidly in the realm of the mainstream. And it's usually a summer sleeper hit. For reference, take a look back at five years ago, when both Bridget Jones' Diary and Legally Blonde were in this same situation (summer chick flicks made surprise hits by their sassy central performances). The major difference here? Prada made even more money, and its Devil is even more acclaimed. With $120 million and one of Streep's greatests perfs in its corner, this film will make the cut. Easily.

And I don't think I even need to talk about Dreamgirls, which has been the prohibitive favorite for this award since before it was even finished shooting. But I will anyway. First of all, yes, I did type "8-10 noms" - that was not a typo. 8-10. How, you ask? Just like this. Every category is stacked:

Best Pic (Comedy/Musical)
Best Actor (C/M) - Jamie Foxx
Best Actress (C/M) - Beyoncé Knowles
Best Actress (C/M) - Jennifer Hudson
Best Supporting Actor - Eddie Murphy
Best Supporting Actress - Anika Noni Rose
Best Director - Bill Condon
Best Screenplay - Bill Condon
Best Song (times 2 or 3 or 4)

...and that's not even counting Best Score, cause I don't think it'll qualify... but who the hell knows.

To be fair, Anika and the screenplay are iffy. And though the film apparently has four original songs, probably only two or so will be nommed.

But I really don't see it getting any fewer than 8. My money's on 9. It could conceivably get 12. In any case, the nomination tally will be gargantuan. I am calling it now... 9 noms. And the Best Pic win in a walk. This thing has been groomed as an oscar powerhouse from day one, but even more important than that is that it looks like it'll actually be really good. It'll certainly have at least the HFPA wrapped around it's little finger.



ANYWAY. I think those are the five nominees. Ordinarily, there might be a Best Animated Feature in the mix, but none this year have sufficiently wowed both the populace and the critics. I guess they could nominate Cars based on its huge box office, or surprise us and go crazy with Monster House, but there really hasn't been a standout zeitgest animated hit in the manner of a Shrek or The Incredibles (not that Shrek was as good as The Incredibles... not at all... but everyone seemed to love it anyway). My guess is they just go with these five.

So I guess that's it. I don't think it's worth getting into other the categories. But I do love the Golden Globes. Really, even despite all the globe voters' bad habits (unrelenting obsession with certain celebrities, starf*cking tendencies, bribability), I like their awards a lot more than the academy's. I like how they split up their awards and honor comedies. I like how musicals always have an advantage. I like that they're generally more receptive to critical opinion.

And I LOVE that last year they gave 4 statues to Brokeback Mountain and didn't even nominate Crash. Rock on, HFPA.