SAG award predictions

So... I think it is time to throw out some SAG predictions. I was just thinking about them, so I thought I'd put my thoughts out on the blog:

BEST ACTOR: Hmm... I still think four men are all but locked in for oscar (Hoffman, Ledger, Phoenix, and Straithairn, in that order). And I think those four will all place here as well. The real question mark is the 5th spot. It could go any number of ways. In fact, I think it will go a different way with SAG than with oscar. Bana seems unlikely, but he is possible. Crowe, I think, won't make this list, just as he missed for M&C (though if they go for Cinderella Man in ensemble, he could place). Howard, Feinnes, and Daniels are the best bets for the nod. I'd put them all on an even keel at this point. Total stab in the dark. For now, let's say Howard (I could see him then being replaced by Feinnes in the oscar race). So, alphabetically, that would be...
PHILIP SEYMOR HOFFMAN, Capote
TERRENCE HOWARD, Hustle & Flow
HEATH LEDGER, Brokeback Mountain
JOAQUIN PHOENIX, Walk the Line
DAVID STRAITHAIRN, Good Night, and Good Luck.
alt. Ralph Feinnes

BEST ACTRESS: Well. Reese, Judi and Felicity will obviously be here. But the last two spots are tricky. I personally think Joan Allen will make it here. They like her much more than the globes do (she got a lead SAG nod for Nixon due to one of those infamous category screw ups), and I just don't see them passing her up. For the last spot, I'm going to go with Kilcher, because... well... I said she'd make it here weeks ago, and I still think it's possible. Not oscar, really, but this, SAG, yes. They like youngsters. Obviously Theron, or more likely, Knightley, could bump Kilcher, but I'm going out on a limb here. Whatever.
JOAN ALLEN, The Upside of Anger
JUDI DENCH, Mrs. Henderson Presents
FELICITY HUFFMAN, Transamerica
Q'ORIANKA KILCHER, The New World
REESE WITHERSPOON, Walk the Line
alt. Keira Knightley

SUPPORTING ACTOR: Okay. I think it's all down to six, for SAG and oscar: Clooney, Giamatti, Gyllenhaal, Dillon, Hoskins, and Hurt, with an outside shot for Terrence Howard (but since he will be nommed for ensemble anyway, he's even less likely here). So who will get left out? Not Clooney. Not Giammati. And not Gyllenhall either, I don't think, since they can only vote for him in the category he's submitted in: supporting. They didn't buy Scarlett's category fraud, but they did buy Keisha's, so I'm betting that they'll buy Jake's (although I don't consider this case fraud, really, I actually think it's borderline fair). I think that either Dillon, Hoskins or Hurt will get the snub. I want to say it will be Dillon, since they sometimes give the boot to people when they're nominated in ensemble, in favor of more random choices. BUT, I have a theory that perhaps A History of Violence will be nominated in ensemble, in which case I don't expect Hurt to place here. Don't ask me why. But that's what I think. So...
GEORGE CLOONEY, Syriana
MATT DILLON, Crash
PAUL GIAMATTI, Cinderella Man
JAKE GYLLENHAAL, Brokeback Mountain
BOB HOSKINS, Mrs. Henderson Presents
alt. William Hurt

SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Now this one's REALLY hard. Any number of combinations could pop up. There are, however, a few good bets. I expect Bello too make it, since they've nominated her before, and since category confusion won't be an issue. And Williams looks good to keep riding the Brokeback Mountain train. Wiesz, I think, is also likely, since she's been strong all through the season so far. And of course, ScarJo should make the cut, since she seems to be the frontrunner in the globe race and a good bet for an oscar nomination (though I wouldn't be shocked to see her miss). That leaves one spot remaining. I don't pretend to know where it'll go... Keener? Maybe. Adams? Possible. Hathaway? It could happen. And Gong, Collette, MacLaine and McDormand can't be counted out either. But I'm gonna say the last spot goes to Diane Keaton, who I now doubt will get an oscar nomination with the film faltering, but who I think will score here a la Cloris Leachman for Spanglish - well-loved veteran with the good performance in the mediocre film.
MARIA BELLO, A History of Violence
SCARLETT JOHANNSON, Match Point
DIANE KEATON, The Family Stone
RACHEL WEISZ, The Constant Gardener
MICHELLE WILLIAMS, Brokeback Mountain
alt. Frances McDormand

And finally, BEST ENSEMBLE: Cutting to the chase... Brokeback, Crash, and GNaGL will make it. But beyond that, who knows. Cinderella Man is a possibility, but I'm not feeling it. I'm think they pull a Cold Mountain again and exclude everyone but Giamatti. I guess King Kong is possible, but I'm thinking no. Match Point? Again, possible, but I say no... it feels too much like the "Jonathan and Scarlett steam up the screen" show. Munich is a strong possibility, but I dunno... tough call. Pride & Prejudice is another big question mark... it certainly deserves to make the cut, but will it? It does seem to have the buzz going for it. I did say before that I have a hunch about aHoV placing here, and I'm sticking with that. I think I'm going to be really bizarre and predict Pride & Prejudice to get an ensemble nod without Knightley getting an individual nod... cause, well, that's what should happen. So...
Brokeback Mountain
Crash
Goodnight, and Good Luck.
A History of Violence
Pride & Prejudice
alt. Cinderella Man

That's it. Share. Discuss. Call me stupid. Whatever works.

Peace.