Independent Spirit Award predictions

I wish I could watch these, but it seems they're only on the IFC channel, which I don't get. Meh.

BEST FEATURE: Juno (alt. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)
Early on, this seemed to be I'm Not There's award to lose (at least in my mind), but Haynes' last film won here, and his new one hasn't broken into the mainstream (which is what a film really needs to win here, despite all the pomp about being independent and "edgy"). I say it goes to this year's breakout indie hit Juno, though a Diving Bell win is certainly possible.
RIGHT!

BEST DIRECTOR: Julian Schnabel (alt. Jason Reitman)
I'm predicting a split decision on feature/director. Reitman could win along with his film, but then again, Schnabel could win with OR without his film. He's maintained a high profile all season, and has won the globe, though he can't win the oscar. That seems like a perfect recipe for a spirit win.
RIGHT!

BEST FIRST FEATURE: The Lookout (alt. 2 Days in Paris)
The Lookout is the only one I've heard of, hence my prediction. But who doesn't love Julie Deply? Hence, my alternate choice.
RIGHT!

BEST SCREENPLAY: Ronald Harwood (alt. Tamara Jenkins)
At first I thought they'd give it to Jenkins, who's also nominated for directing. After all, she should win something, shouldn't she? But then I remembered how they shafted Nicole Holofcener in this category when she was also nominated for directing. So let's say this goes to Ronald Harwood for his acclaimed Diving Bell script... which means he'll lose the oscar tomorrow.
WRONG! My alternate won. Shoulda stuck with my first instinct...

BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY: Diablo Cody (alt. Kelly Masterson)
Easiest call of the night. Though I suppose they might throw Masterson a bone after her oscar snub... but really, no. This is all Juno's. And it's not even an oscar kiss of death, since it's best FIRST screenplay, and not the full-fledged screenplay category (Crash, I believe, won this award, too).
RIGHT! (duh)

BEST FEMALE LEAD: Ellen Page (alt. Angelina Jolie)
I think Page has this all wrapped up for anchoring the big indie hit of the year (plus look, she's EDGY!). But a Tang Wei win would be really cool. And a Jolie win nice consolation, after her oscar snub. Still, Page will win. So kiss her oscar chances goodbye.
RIGHT!

BEST MALE LEAD: Frank Langella (alt. Don Cheadle)
This one's hard. None of these are up for the oscar, or were even considered, really. Hoffman had a globe nom, and somehow managed to be nominated here without Laura Linney. But I'm not feeling him for the win. Leung or Cheadle could take it, I suppose, but I'm going with Langella, who seems to have a combo of sentiment + "look he's slumming in a little indie", which could win it for him.
WRONG! Shoulda gone with the obvious choice. What was I thinking?

BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE: Cate Blanchett (alt. Jennifer Jason Lee)
This one will go to Blanchett, which I guess means she won't win the oscar? That's the most persuasive argument I can think of for why her oscar chances aren't good. Meanwhile, JJL and Tomei jockey for runner-up positioning, but I think it's a moot point, really. Blanchett has it sewn up.
RIGHT! (another "duh")

BEST SUPPORTING MALE: Irfan Zahn (alt. Marcus Carl Franklin)
I really wanna predict Marcus Carl Franklin here, but I think it's more likely to go to the acclaimed performance of Irfan Kahn (Film Bitch nomination), who's had quite a year.
WRONG! Chiwitel Ejiofor won for Talk to Me. Maybe if I'd seen that film, I would've seen this coming.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Janusz Kaminski (alt. Rodrigo Prieto)
...for Diving Bell and Lust, Caution respectively. I want to predict Lust, Caution here, but my brain is telling me this goes to the showy, oscar-nominated work on Diving Bell.
RIGHT! (duh #3)

BEST FOREIGN FILM: Once (alt. 4 Months, 3 Weeks, and 2 Days)
For this one, I'm just going with my heart. Once MUST win something here. It's about as indy as they come. I was really bummed that it didn't qualify for the John Cassavetes (i.e. dirt cheap production) award because it was considered foreign. So please let it win in foreign. This category has a history of awarding english language productions (I believe Dancer in the Dark won here in the year of Crouching Tiger), so I'm crossing my fingers.
RIGHT! (and boy am I happy)

p.s. Did Diving Bell not qualify or what? Since it's up for Best Feature? Could they be a little less transparent about how this is really just a ghetto category for films they don't find worthy of the big awards? Ugh.

8 right, 3 wrong... not bad for the crazy spirits. I should've gotten actor and screenplay, though. For some reason I felt compelled not to go with the obvious choices. Meh.