wrap-up of various oscar things

So, overall, YAY. What a fun show. And I went to a party for once, too. I got 17 predictions correct, which is pretty much average on the online obsessive oscar nut meter, but very very good in lamens' world. My score of 17 was more than enough to win my party's oscar pool, where the next highest score was 14. Yay! I actually won a prize! A $20 gift certificate to AMC theaters. Awesome. My friends say I should gamble on the oscars for money.

Also, my #1 dream came true!!! And it was WONDERFUL. I love Tilda Swinton and that performance so much. Of course now, since they always show the one clip where her American accent is muddy and her Britishness shows, I am questioning her complete worthiness, due to accent issues. But I just tell myself Karen Crowder spent her early childhood across the pond and hasn't entirely lost the dialect and is trying to hide it. And anyway, 80% of the time, her accent's spot on.

And my #1 nightmare did not happen! Once won!!! And not only that, but the performance was fab - a sort of hush came over the party as "Falling Slowly" played, such is its power - and then Marketa first tried to say thank you and failed (which was totally cute, if frustrating) and then was allowed back onstage to give her speech later! SO incredibly cute. Has that EVER happened before? I have never seen it happen. So cute. I almost died. And her speech was so lovely. Makes me wanna be a singer/songwriter, it does.

Julie Christie's loss saddened me slightly, since I'd been defending her chances so vigorously over in Nat's comments. But I haven't even seen La Vie En Rose, so I can't comment (even though I did, repeatedly... hardy har har), and I also wasn't quite as crazy in love with Christie as some people. It just would've been cool to see her with bookend oscars 42 years apart.

So yeah, yay for Bardem (always sexy) and Day-Lewis (always endearing). Yay for Diablo Cody's dress and tattoo. Yay for Once's song win (and all the songs, really... I was one of those who thought that all the performances were good). Yay for random surprises like Golden Compass winning visual effects (I was not a fan of the film, but the effects were choice), Sweeney Todd winning art direction, Bourne Ultimatum sweeping, etc.

And most of all, yay for movies. I'd been feeling a bit lost in film school lately, and this helped me remember why I'm there. I'll figure out my niche someday... for now, at least I know I'm in the right field. Show business forever.

Independent Spirit Award predictions

I wish I could watch these, but it seems they're only on the IFC channel, which I don't get. Meh.

BEST FEATURE: Juno (alt. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)
Early on, this seemed to be I'm Not There's award to lose (at least in my mind), but Haynes' last film won here, and his new one hasn't broken into the mainstream (which is what a film really needs to win here, despite all the pomp about being independent and "edgy"). I say it goes to this year's breakout indie hit Juno, though a Diving Bell win is certainly possible.
RIGHT!

BEST DIRECTOR: Julian Schnabel (alt. Jason Reitman)
I'm predicting a split decision on feature/director. Reitman could win along with his film, but then again, Schnabel could win with OR without his film. He's maintained a high profile all season, and has won the globe, though he can't win the oscar. That seems like a perfect recipe for a spirit win.
RIGHT!

BEST FIRST FEATURE: The Lookout (alt. 2 Days in Paris)
The Lookout is the only one I've heard of, hence my prediction. But who doesn't love Julie Deply? Hence, my alternate choice.
RIGHT!

BEST SCREENPLAY: Ronald Harwood (alt. Tamara Jenkins)
At first I thought they'd give it to Jenkins, who's also nominated for directing. After all, she should win something, shouldn't she? But then I remembered how they shafted Nicole Holofcener in this category when she was also nominated for directing. So let's say this goes to Ronald Harwood for his acclaimed Diving Bell script... which means he'll lose the oscar tomorrow.
WRONG! My alternate won. Shoulda stuck with my first instinct...

BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY: Diablo Cody (alt. Kelly Masterson)
Easiest call of the night. Though I suppose they might throw Masterson a bone after her oscar snub... but really, no. This is all Juno's. And it's not even an oscar kiss of death, since it's best FIRST screenplay, and not the full-fledged screenplay category (Crash, I believe, won this award, too).
RIGHT! (duh)

BEST FEMALE LEAD: Ellen Page (alt. Angelina Jolie)
I think Page has this all wrapped up for anchoring the big indie hit of the year (plus look, she's EDGY!). But a Tang Wei win would be really cool. And a Jolie win nice consolation, after her oscar snub. Still, Page will win. So kiss her oscar chances goodbye.
RIGHT!

BEST MALE LEAD: Frank Langella (alt. Don Cheadle)
This one's hard. None of these are up for the oscar, or were even considered, really. Hoffman had a globe nom, and somehow managed to be nominated here without Laura Linney. But I'm not feeling him for the win. Leung or Cheadle could take it, I suppose, but I'm going with Langella, who seems to have a combo of sentiment + "look he's slumming in a little indie", which could win it for him.
WRONG! Shoulda gone with the obvious choice. What was I thinking?

BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE: Cate Blanchett (alt. Jennifer Jason Lee)
This one will go to Blanchett, which I guess means she won't win the oscar? That's the most persuasive argument I can think of for why her oscar chances aren't good. Meanwhile, JJL and Tomei jockey for runner-up positioning, but I think it's a moot point, really. Blanchett has it sewn up.
RIGHT! (another "duh")

BEST SUPPORTING MALE: Irfan Zahn (alt. Marcus Carl Franklin)
I really wanna predict Marcus Carl Franklin here, but I think it's more likely to go to the acclaimed performance of Irfan Kahn (Film Bitch nomination), who's had quite a year.
WRONG! Chiwitel Ejiofor won for Talk to Me. Maybe if I'd seen that film, I would've seen this coming.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Janusz Kaminski (alt. Rodrigo Prieto)
...for Diving Bell and Lust, Caution respectively. I want to predict Lust, Caution here, but my brain is telling me this goes to the showy, oscar-nominated work on Diving Bell.
RIGHT! (duh #3)

BEST FOREIGN FILM: Once (alt. 4 Months, 3 Weeks, and 2 Days)
For this one, I'm just going with my heart. Once MUST win something here. It's about as indy as they come. I was really bummed that it didn't qualify for the John Cassavetes (i.e. dirt cheap production) award because it was considered foreign. So please let it win in foreign. This category has a history of awarding english language productions (I believe Dancer in the Dark won here in the year of Crouching Tiger), so I'm crossing my fingers.
RIGHT! (and boy am I happy)

p.s. Did Diving Bell not qualify or what? Since it's up for Best Feature? Could they be a little less transparent about how this is really just a ghetto category for films they don't find worthy of the big awards? Ugh.

8 right, 3 wrong... not bad for the crazy spirits. I should've gotten actor and screenplay, though. For some reason I felt compelled not to go with the obvious choices. Meh.

Final Oscar predictions

PICTURE: No Country for Old Men (alt. Juno)
RIGHT! Duh. But can I just say that I loved when Scott Rudin thanked his partner and called him "honey." That was totally cute.

DIRECTOR: The Coen Bros (alt. Paul Thomas Anderson)
RIGHT! Double duh.

LEAD ACTOR: Daniel Day-Lewis (alt. Johnny Depp)
RIGHT! Triple duh.

LEAD ACTRESS: Julie Christie (alt. Marion Cotillard)
WRONG! It was Cotillard after all. Oh well. Color me stupid. Looks like deglam and biopics still carry the day. If you've got both, you're unbeatable.

SUPPORTING ACTOR: Javier Bardem (alt. Hal Holbrook)
RIGHT! He's such a sexy, sexy man.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Tilda Swinton (alt. Ruby Dee)
RIGHT! And oh how sweet it feels. Can I just say that I was predicting her even before the BAFTA win? I knew they'd look to her as a token win for Clayton. But whatever man, she still won.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Juno (alt. Ratatouille)
RIGHT! Easy. Though I do actually feel that Ratatouille may have been in second place, what with Tilda providing the token win for Clayton.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: No Country for Old Men (alt. There Will Be Blood)
RIGHT! Making my "big 8" stat 7/8, as usual. Anyway, this was a good script. Good for them.

ANIMATED FEATURE: Ratatouille (alt. Persepolis)
RIGHT! Well deserved. Not much else to say.

ANIMATED SHORT: Peter and the Wolf (alt. I Met the Walrus)
RIGHT! I must confess, I just copied this one from Kris Tapley... and I should've copied his documentary feaure prediction, too, cause it was right.

LIVE ACTION SHORT: The Tonto Woman (alt. At Night)
Ummm... I honestly don't remember what won this one, so I don't know if I was right. I think I missed it, though.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: No End in Sight (alt. Sicko)
WRONG! And my alternate was wrong, too. Taxi to the Dark Side just sounded like too random a title for a winning film... and No End in Sight had a lot of buzz... but oh well.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT: Freeheld (alt. Salim Baba)
RIGHT! I think I also copied this one from Kris Tapley.

FOREIGN FILM: The Counterfeiters (alt. 12)
RIGHT! Just went with the consensus here.

EDITING: The Bourne Ultimatum (alt. No Country for Old Men)
RIGHT! The one Bourne win I actually saw coming. I knew they'd feel awkward giving an oscar to Roderick Jaynes.

ART DIRECTION: There Will Be Blood (alt. Atonement)
WRONG! Sweeney Todd takes it. I totally didn't see that coming. But good for it, I guess.

COSTUME DESIGN: Elizabeth: The Golden Age (alt. Atonement)
RIGHT! This one I did see coming. Marie Antoinette's win last year proved that non-acclaimed films can win here if they've got pretty period clothes on their side (bonus points for dressing queens). I mean, I loved, Marie, but you know... most didn't. And also, boy were those Elizabeth costumes intense. Yikes.

CINEMATOGRAPHY: There Will Be Blood (alt. No Country for Old Men)
RIGHT! The Deakins split gives it to Elswit. Go me.

ORIGINAL SCORE: Atonement (alt. Ratatouille)
RIGHT! Atonement's token win comes here, just as I thought.

ORIGINAL SONG: Once (alt. August Rush)
RIGHT! YEEEEEESSSSSS. I love this song very very much.

SOUND MIXING: Transformers (alt. No Country for Old Men)
WRONG! Kevin whatshisname goes emptyhanded for a 21st time. Ouch.

SOUND EDITING: Transformers (alt. No Country for Old Men)
WRONG! So it's Bourne, not the robots, that sweeps the board in the techs. I guess that's good, since it got better reviews (I didn't see either).

VISUAL EFFECTS: Transformers (alt. Pirates: At World's End)
WRONG! How very random for Golden Compass to triumph here over Transformers. Did ANYONE see this coming? But I guess it's good that films with good effects can win here despite critical and commercial indifference. The F/X people did great work, even if the film around them didn't hold together.

MAKEUP: La Vie En Rose (alt. Pirates: At World's End)
RIGHT! Nice to see people realizing that Cotillard didn't do it all herself.


My #1 dream: Swinton takes the stage.
IT HAPPENED!

My #1 nightmare: Once loses best song.
IT DIDN'T HAPPEN!

YAY!

last year's April Fools oscar predictions

So, I only guessed 1 of 5 in most major categories. In picture & director, that one was There Will Be Blood (I knew it would be Anderson's time), and in actor, it was Daniel Day-Lewis, in said film. In original screenplay, it was The Savages (I didn't see Clayton coming, and didn't expect Ratatouille to be as hugely acclaimed as it was... though in retrospect that seems like a "duh"). In supporting actress, the one was Cate Blanchett (very strong bait that could be smelled a whole year away).

Interestingly, the no-brainer double nod for Blanchett came true after all, after many months of looking locked, followed by a few months looking unlikely, and then this latest month being an annoying, foreboding spectre (WHY???).

I got two actress noms correct (Blanchett and Cotillard... it would've been three if Jolie hadn't JUST missed). I also got two adapted screenplay nominees (Blood and Atonement). But I didn't get ANY of the supporting actor contenders, which is a bit of a disappointment for me.

I wish I hadn't so vastly overestimated Golden Age, I'm Not There and Youth Without Youth (was that even released??). I was also blind to the inevitabilty of Atonement in the big category (sigh).

I don't think I'll be doing these next year. They only make me feel inadequate. It's crazy that Nathaniel can guess two or three nominees in each category... I don't know how he does it.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 2007

Critics:
Ryan (& Blanchett)


BFCA: Ryan


GG: Blanchett


SAG: Dee


Oscar: ?????


Any ideas? I guess the smart money's still on Blanchett (she has a double nom, lest we forget, and she played a real person). The Ruby Dee win at SAG tonight was probably more the populism bias than anything (many many people vote in those awards, and I bet they all saw American Gangster), but it still gives her momentum heading into the big race. Amy Ryan I think is the classic "critic's pick" who was never destined to transfer to an oscar win, just like Madsen and other past losers. Most academy members probably still don't really know who she is. But my dream scenario is that the confusion leads to a surprise win for SWINTON who I love beyond reason, and who could be a token win for Michael Clayton (which I also liked a lot).

Crossing my fingers for Swinton... but probably still putting money on Cate. Pray for an upset, people... pray pray pray...

SAG Awards Live-Blogging attempt by moi

I don't usually try to do this, but tonight I'm gonna. Here we go!

7:53 OMG! Titanic just happens to be on before the SAGs. It's ending... old Rose is throwing the diamond away! Aaaawwww... I haven't watched this movie (yes I said MOVIE) in a long time, even though I recently bought the new fabulous 3 or 4 disc special edition. Yes, I am a Titanic fan. It's not perfect, but it gets me like no other. Sue me. Aww, credits. I kinda wish I'd checked into TNT earlier... watching movies on TV is kinda fun in a masochistic way.

7:59 Someone is talking to someone on the red carpet over the Titanic credits. Whatever. Get to it, already. oooooh the credits are rolling at super speed. So THAT's how they make sure the film is the right length for that 4 hour bloc...

8:00 Some stupid man is talking over shots of people. She's Eva Longoria PARKER now? I didn't know that. I guess that's cause I don't care about her. Aww, Brangelina... sad they weren't nominated at the oscars. Yay for Ryan Gosling. Mmmm... Diane Lane and Josh Brolin. Look, Cate is wearing something fun.

8:02 Sally Field's voice is so shrill... good thing she's so likeable otherwise. I don't know who Doug Sevante is. !!! ELLEN BURSTYN !!! I wanna read her book. Are they really reading their own life stories off of cue cards? That's kind of lame. Why did I never make that connection before? Haha I like RR's little story. Cute. Haha, Elaine Jane Krakowski is funny too. Kyle M is looking a little past his prime tonight. Oh well.

8:05 Yay, Tina Fey and Steve Carrell! What a pair. They'd better be funny. Haha. OK they were pretty good. I wonder who will win this. I kinda wish I watched more TV. But of course now the one show I'm obsessed with is never nominated for things. One more year, one more year... get it right, Emmys, GGs and SAG. ooh, I like Hugh Laurie. I hope he wins. How is he not really American? That blows my mind. Oh, please not James Spader again. I like him, but come on. The winner is... OK James Gandolfini is pretty respectable. Can't really go wrong there. Let's see what he has to say... (this was best actor in a drama series BTW) James is so classy. I'm actually finding him really attractive right now, which is weird. Speech is short and sweet. Nice.

8:08 Nikki Blonsky, yay! John Travolta, boooo. The cast of Hairspray, yay!!! I'd kinda like them to win. Apparently come people think they're going to. But I'm not holding my breath. OK that montage was lame. Kinda over before it began. But at least maybe now the show will be short.

8:10 OMG Debra Messing's getup is amazing. The hair is maybe too much, but I can't look away. I can't decide whether it's a trainwreck or genius. But it makes me not even care what award she's presenting. Best actress in a drama series. Classy field. It'll probably be Falco. And that'd be fine by me. Not that I watch that show, or any of the others. Wow, so many great actresses. So many accents. Yup, Falco. Easy to see coming, after James. But good for her, she rocks. Sad that this'll be her last one. Not supposed to happen? Please. Come on, Edie. I didn't believe that at all. You're a better actress than that. But how great and natural she looks tonight. I love her.

8:13 Commercial. Good, I get a break.

8:18 Those commercials took forever. This history of SAG is cool, though. I never knew this stuff. I wish I had a SAG card. Damn. Someday...

8:20 Ensemble in a drama series. Well duh, this is gonna be Sopranos. You know they all would kill to be on that show. Grey's is nominated. I don't get that show. It's not that good. My mom and sister watch it all the time. The gay one is cute, though. I'd do him. T. R. Knight, that's it. rawr... but Sopranos will win. Yup. Alright, I'm bored. Maybe if I watched the show, I wouldn't be. But I don't.

8:25 Emile Hirsch and Hal Holbrook. I wonder if they're pissed that their film got snubbed. Wow, Emile Hirsch is short. And not as cute tonight as he sometimes is. Also not as charming. I totally see how he'd be a director surrogate in a Penn film, though. He is Pennesque in a way.

8:27 Marion Cotillard! She's like a pixie. What is she presenting? Supporting actor. Will it be Bardem? Afflck looks GOOOOOD. In the film, and in that tux. Dammit, I wish I didn't think so. I always used to find him smarmy. Maybe Holbrook will win. Wow, what a brief clip. Leave you wanting more... yay, Tommy Lee Jones. I really liked him in that film. And yay for the Wilkinson. Love him always. And the actor goes to... JAVIER BARDEM. Woop. And good on Marion for pronouncing his name correctly. Gotta love those Europeans. MAN, Javier is sexy. Look at that man. I want him so hard. Look how good his hair can look when he tries. Javier is such a sexy name. I want a boyfriend named Javier. Maybe I should buy Before Night Falls. God, he's sexy. Yum. Hahaha, he thanks the Coens for choosing the good takes. Amen to that. God, he's amazing.

8:36 It's baaaack. Ooh, I love Chandra Wilson. She's the only thing I really like about that show. Best actress in a comedy series. C Applegate is crying. She's pretty funny. Wow, they really do make America Ferrera look ugly. And that's hard to do. Tina Fey... that makes two nominees crying in their clips. And Mary-Louise Parker being deadpan. What a shock. And then there's Vanessa. And the actor goes to... Tina Fey! Cool! Could she win the Emmy? I never really thought of her as an actor. Oh, and apparently she doesn't either. But I love this anyway. And good on her shout-out to the writer's guild. Since you know, she's part of it.

8:39 JAMES MARSDEN! He's such a cutie. He cleans up nice. Hahahaha all these nominees are great. I think Jeremy Piven is sexy. Really sexy. Oh god, Tony Shaloub is so over, though. Please, no. Alec Baldwin. Nice. I love new blood. He's not there? Fuck that shit. Oh well.

8:42 Ruby Dee! Yay, I love her. It'd be cool if she won. Not for ensemble, though. She looks pretty good for 80 or whatever she is. People of color age so well... Russell Crowe looks kind of schlubby in AG. Glad he never got any traction, in either category. Who are these people presenting best cast in a comedy series? I don't even know who they are. Lame. I suppose 30 Rock will probably win this. I don't like Desperate Housewives. I watched one episode and totally didn't care. Mmmm, Adrien Grenier is sexy, too. I should watch Entourage. Wow, a threesome with him and Piven would really be fun. Sorry, how vulgar. Why am I so sex-obsessed tonight? Too many hotties. And the winner is... The Office. Interesting. But again, I don't really watch TV, so I don't care. Wow, they look surprised that they beat 30 Rock. I don't blame them. That was a nice speech. Kinda boring, though. I think they were all in shock.

8:48 Commercial break. Good.

8:54 Back. Someone is talking, and I don't care. OK, that was boring. Here comes the tribute to Charles Durning. I really really liked him in Tootsie. Too bad I haven't seen him in anything else. Hee, "Gayety Burlesque." Oh wow, he was almost killed at war. And then he became an actor. Sweeeeeet. Whoa, he gained a lot of weight in a rather short time. He was in The Sting? Mmmm, Paul Newman. Wow, Al Pacino was sexy when he was young. Clearly, I like latins/italians. YES, the Tootsie bit. Yay. Ew, Tom Hanks. Why does he have to be here? Oh wait, he's not, that was prerecorded. Now somebody else is gonna talk? Burt Reynolds looks like he's about to fall over. This is so awkward. Is this about his acting career or the war? Eh... I guess I should be more respectful. Aw, it's so cute that Forest Whitaker is helping him up. And now he's talking. I think I'm gonna use this time to take a break. Sorry.

9:10 OK, back. People are still applauding. This is cute, though. I think I just saw the kid from The Kite Runner in the audience. Aaaaaaaand now there's another commercial. Awesome.

9:16 Holly Hunter and James Spader are presenting best actor in a TV movie or miniseries. Holly Hunter looks a LOT like Evan Rachel Wood tonight. I'm having flashbacks to Thirteen. Kevin Kline wins. Okay. NEXT.

9:18 Ben Foster presents 3:10 to Yuma. Sorry, Ben, the other Foster is still about 10,000 times cooler than you (I'm talking about Jodie in case it isn't obvious). I'd like to see 3:10 to Yuma. I meant to, but I never did. Damn.

9:20 Mickey Rooney is here! Fun. And finally, after lots of talking, he's presenting best actress in a TV movie or miniseries. Here's Debra Messing again. That dress! That hair! Anna Paquin always looks so confused and scared all the time. Queen Latifah wins! Huh. She's not there. Hee... "Miss Latifah." That's funny.

9:25 Josh Brolin is sexy. I'm glad he got a lot more famous this year. Is he more famous than his wife now? I guess they're on a pretty even keel. Oh no, the "in memorium" thing. I can't watch... this is gonna be so sad. I think they're doing a special thing for Ledger. My dad is here being exasperated at how all these people died. Does anyone realize this music is the music from the Brokeback trailer? Sigh. So sad. And here's Heath Ledger. Are they doing another thing after the commercial? I thought they were gonna do a special thing. If it really was an accidental overdose of prescription drugs, that'd be REALLY sad. Such a waste. So pointless. But sometimes, that's just how these things go.

9:36 Another educational thing. Ooh, Debra Messing's hair again. Yowza. Oh boy, Viggo needs to lose the beard. Best supporting actress. I predicted Ruby Dee would win this. We'll see. She looked really good in that clip. Catherine Keener looks really good, too. Amy Ryan had quite an accent there. Ooooh, Tilda. LOVE. Here it is... RUBY DEE!!!!!! How much do I rock. OK, my dad just asked if it's "black night" or something, since Ruby Dee and Queen Latifah both won. My republican-leaning father, everyone. Christ. Look at her glasses! How cute. I'm still really excited that I got this right. I'm kind of awesome. She's very classy. I'm glad she won. And I'm glad she's the only one riding AG's box office to awards. Apparently dad was bored of listening to Ruby Dee speak, cause he walked away. Wow, I really don't like him sometimes. So this is a wide open race in supporting actress, huh? VERY hard to know who'll take this... maybe Tilda? That'd be sweet.

9:43 No Country for Old Men is being presented. Yay. Commercial. I'm gonna take a break to be pissed at my racist father.

9:49 Best lead actor. Matthew McCaughnahay has a bad haircut. So he's costarring with Kate Hudson again? I'm shocked. Now dad is commenting on all the clips as if he knows what he's talking about. Wow, I'm getting really sick of him. Aw, Emile Hirsch is cute again. And Viggo is a badass. Awesome. And for the win... I'm so on edge (snark)... Daniel Day-Lewis. I started typing that before they even said it, to save myself time. Oooh, I think he's gonna say something about Heath Ledger. Hmm, maybe not. Except yeah, there it was. I knew it. Good for Daniel. Classy. I feel like he really wanted to get to know Heath Ledger, and is sad he couldn't. Sad. I knew he'd dedicate it to Heath. What a wonderful man.

9:54 Forest Whitaker presents best lead actress. I think it'll be Christie... we've already had our upset. Wow, Cate Blanchett certainly is intense. Julie Christie died her hair. I don't know if I like it. There's Marion, being all pixieish again. And there's Angie. Poor, snubbed Angie. And Ellen Page. Selling that overwritten dialogue like a pro. And the actor goes to... Julie Christie. I sure am doing well tonight. Yaaaaaaaaaaay... time to hear her speak. She sure it taking her sweet time getting up there. Awww. She's adorable. Shout out to the unions! Yay. She's so eccentric. Awwww, she's givin' it up for Sarah. Good for her. She's so funny.

10:00 Ew, why does Tom Cruise have to tarnish the night? OK, ensemble... please, let it be No Country so I'm 5 for 5... YES! I rule. And No Country is getting the oscar. Go me. Go it. Go everyone. Except Tom Cruise, cause he sucks. Haha. Josh Brolin... "sad... sad for the rest of us." That's rich. I'm glad he gets to talk, at least. He's so hot, in that manly way. And he's saying smart things. Thank the Coens, thank the Coens! Haha... he's "taking his time"... this is so funny. Haha, look at Woody in the background. He's so insane. That was a funny speech.

And look at that, the show almost clocked in under two hours. I'm sad they didn't do more for Heath Ledger, but DDL rectified that. And I scored 5 for 5! I'm so happy.

SAG predictions + actuals

BEST ENSEMBLE
My prediction and the winner: No Country for Old Men

Pretty obvious, I think.

BEST ACTRESS
My prediction and the winner: Julie Christie

BUT I think it's very VERY possible that Page could upset her here. Box office is a big factor at the SAG awards. But already-cemented frontrunner status, and non-SAG-winning legend status, are big factors too. So Christie it is.

BEST ACTOR
My prediction and the winner: Daniel Day-Lewis

No contest, with Depp gone.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
My prediction and the winner: Ruby Dee

I'm actually gonna go out on a bit of a limb with this one and predict a win for Ruby Dee. She's in the biggest hit (by far) and is a sentimental favorite. And Blanchett's film is a bit too esoteric for the wider SAG membership, I think, so I say she splits the dissenting vote with Amy Ryan. And of course, American Gangster got an ensemble nod, too, and STILL Dee managed an individual nod for her teeny tiny performance.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
My prediction and the winner: Javier Bardem

Before the ceremony, I said: This is another one I'm a little worried about. I just feel like the Tommy Lee Jones inclusion could split the No Country votes and hand the win to Hal Holbrook or someone else. But since Holbrook's film was slighted by the academy, maybe his support is not really that big? BUT since that slight happened AFTER people were turning in their ballots, maybe they voted for him anyway? BUT I suspect I'm overthinking this to the extreme. So Bardem it is.

After the ceremony, I say: I got 5/5, so I am amazing. That's really all I have to say. For more of my thoughts, see my liveblogging above. And leave comments!

Oscar nomination predictions/reactions

BEST PICTURE
Atonement*
Into the Wild
Michael Clayton*
No Country for Old Men*
There Will Be Blood*
alt. Diving Bell
...and Juno.

4/5... including Atonement. I knew it would make it. Yay for Into the Wild being snubbed. I've seen all 5 of these nominees, and they're all very good films, which is a nice change. So yay. I was wrong about Juno, though. That's fine.


BEST DIRECTOR
PT Anderson (There Will Be Blood)*
Coen Bros (No Country)*
David Fincher (Zodiac)
Sean Penn (Into the Wild)
Julian Schnabel (Diving Bell)*
alt. Tony Gilroy (Clayton)
...and Jason Reitman (Juno).

3/5 (4 with my alternate). Probably about the same as most people... lots of surprises here.


BEST ACTOR
Clooney (Clayton)*
DDL (There Will Be Blood)*
Depp (Sweeney Todd)*
Hirsch (Into the Wild)
Mortensen (Eastern Promises)*
alt. Gosling (Lars)
...and Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah).

4/5... not bad. I KNEW Hirsch and Gosling were too young to be getting this much love. They like their leading men seasoned. But I went with Hirsch anyway. Not a big deal, since Jones was never the one I'd have predicted instead. Sad for McAvoy and Gosling, but oh well.


BEST ACTRESS
Christie (Away From Her)*
Cotillard (La Vie En Rose)*
Jolie (A Mighty Heart)
Linney (The Savages)*
Page (Juno)*
alt. Blanchett (Golden Age)

4/5 (5/5 with my alternate!) Looks like Blanchett was in fact more secure than Angelina. How baffling. But I'm SO happy for Linney. She was being unfairly shafted everywhere else. Could she win this? Probably not. But with her in and Page riding LOTS of Juno love, the race has opened up a bit. I still think Christie will take it - she's built up a lot of momentum - but it could go a few different ways.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Affleck (Assassination)*
Bardem (No Country)*
Holbrook (Into the Wild)*
Jones (No Country)
Wilkinson (Clayton)*
alt. Dano (There Will Be Blood)
...and Philip Seymour Hoffman (Charlie Wilson's War).

4/5 here. Dammit, I should've just gone with the consensus. But I just really didn't believe in Hoffman... it seemed like one of those nominations (like Jolie's turned out to be) that was in danger of missing out due to lack of passion. I think what happened was that all the possible upsets - Dano, Jones, Von Sydow - split each other's support and allowed Hoffman to pull through. Oh well. I was right that Jones would be nominated somewhere, though...


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Blanchett (I'm Not There)*
Keener (Into the Wild)
MacDonald (No Country)
Ryan (Gone Baby Gone)*
Swinton (Michael Clayton)*
alt. Dee (American Gangster)
...and Saoirse Ronan (Atonement).

3/5 (4 with my alternate). Damn, I shoulda stuck with Saorsie. I believe in her for a long time... thought it would be her, screenplay, and best pic for Atonement, which is just what it turned out to be. But then I abandoned her in favor of candidates from (presumed) frontrunner films. Oh well. Happy for Ruby Dee, though.


ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Juno *
Lars and the Real Girl*
Michael Clayton*
Ratatouille*
The Savages*
alt. Knocked Up

5/5 here. This category was easy.


ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Atonement*
Diving Bell*
No Country*
There Will Be Blood*
Zodiac
alt. Into the Wild
...and Away From Her.

4/5 here... including Atonement. I knew it was far from dead. And yay for Away From Her! I had faith in it early in the season, but lately I thought it would be crowded out of this category when all was said and done. But alas, here it is. Too bad about Zodiac, though. Oh, and I correctly predict THIS Into the Wild snub at least! Yay!


ART DIRECTION
3:10 to Yuma
Atonement*
Harry Potter
Sweeney Todd*
There Will Be Blood*
alt. Golden Age
American Gangster
...and The Golden Compass.

3/5


COSTUME DESIGN
3:10 to Yuma
Atonement)*
Golden Age)*
Hairspray
Sweeney Todd*
alt. La Vie En Rose
...and Across the Universe.

3/5 (4 with alternate)


CINEMATOGRAPHY
Assassination*
Atonement*
Diving Bell*
No Country*
There Will Be Blood*
alt. Into the Wild

5/5! Yay! Good thing they hated Into the Wild.


FILM EDITING
Atonement
Into the Wild*
Michael Clayton
No Country*
There Will Be Blood*
alt. Bourne Ultimatum
...and Diving Bell.

3/5 (4 with alternate). So they nominated the snubbed Into the Wild and Diving Bell here, but not best pics Atonement and Michael Clayton (both of which were very well edited). Oh well. This branch is veering more and more away from best picture, though sometimes it seems unintentional.


MAKEUP
DIving Bell
La Vie En Rose*
Sweeney Todd
alt. 300
Pirates
...and Norbit.

1/3. Christ. This is ridiculous. Maybe La Vie En Rose will win a consolation prize here when it loses actress? As long as Norbit doesn't win.


VISUAL EFFECTS
300
Golden Compass*
Transformers*
alt. Pirates.

2/3. I don't know why I predicted 300. That was dumb. Oh well.


SOUND
Hairspray
No Country for Old Men*
Pirates
Sweeney Todd
Transformers*
alt. Bourne Ultimatum
3:10 to Yuma
...and Ratatouille.

2/5 (3 with my alternate). Ouch.


SOUND EFFECTS EDITING
300
Bourne Ultimatum*
No Country*
Ratatouille*
Transformers*
alt. Beowulf
...and There Will Be Blood.

4/5. Good for me. And good for There Will Be Blood, which I'm very happy about, even if I didn't see it coming.


ORIGINAL SCORE
3:10 to Yuma*
Atonement*
Kite Runner*
Lust, Caution
Ratatouille*
alt. Beowulf
...and Michael Clayton.

4/5. Yay for me! And yay for everyone! Except I'm really sad for Alexandre Desplat, who still only has one nomination to his name, despite being nod-worthy every year. Booo.


ORIGINAL SONG
Enchanted ("That's How You Know")*
Into the Wild ("Guaranteed")
Hairspray ("Come So Far")
Love in the Time of Cholera ("Despedida")
Once ("Falling Slowly")*
alt. American Gangster ("Do You Feel Me?")
two other songs from Enchanted
...and a song from August Rush.

2/5. Wow, this category never fails to shock. But yay for shunning all the rock/pop stars here (booo for the shunning of Jonny Greenwood, but that's another matter). So with the whole category being hogged by Enchanted (none of whose songs really seem to stand out), does this mean "Falling Slowly" will win it??? Please please PLEASE....


ANIMATED FILM
Persepolis*
Ratatouille*
The Simpsons Movie
...and Surf's Up!

2/3. Surf's Up!? WTF!? Whatever, with 5 nods, the Rat's got this thing sewn up.


FOREIGN FILM
I am boycotting this category in protest.

So I'm 31/40 in the main categories (32/40 if you give me 1/2 credit for my alternates)... I basically went 4/5 everywhere, but for my perfect score in original screenplay (yay!) and my 3/5 screwups in supporting actress and director (shoulda gone with Gilroy and Dee, who I had as alternates... and don't get me started on Ronan).

But anyway, these are good nominations, barring the occasional Cate Blanchett, Surf's Up, Norbit, etc. Overall, the academy seems to know what they're doing this year. And what exactly is happening with best picture? I could still see a No Country sweep (it could easily take best pic, director, screenplay, supporting actor, cinematography, editing), but it does seem to have been knocked off its frontrunner perch a bit lately, losing the GG and now sharing "critical favorite" status with There Will Be Blood. So really, I could see almost anything winning now. Maybe the two critics' films will split that vote and hand it to either Atonement or Juno? Very possible. And how crazy is it that Juno has a best director nom??? Crazy.

I'm also wondering if Julie Christie still has her second best actress oscar coming. With Page, Cotillard and now Linney all splitting the dissenting vote, I think it'll still go to Christie, but it could go any which way. ESPECIALLY if there's a huge wave of Juno love on the horizon. Page might win the SAG award, in which case all bets are off.

How exciting.

Now let's just pray that the oscars actually happen...

PGA nom predictions/reactions

Hairspray
Into the Wild
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
alt. There Will Be Blood

I went 3/5, 4/5 with my alternate. So let's say 3.5/5.

A bit of a shocker here with Diving Bell making it and Into the Wild missing. Although, Wild didn't make that much money, and some people didn't like it. So maybe not. But it's still getting in for oscar. This does, of course, make it an 8 or 9 film race (these 5 plus Wild plus recent globe winners Atonement and Sweeney Todd, plus maybe American Gangster). Interesting race. Now, I'd feel better if I knew the oscars were actually happening...

Golden Globe predictions/reactions

Oy. No Golden Globe ceremony this year. But I have awards fatigue anyway, so it's OK. Or maybe my awards fatigue is due to the fact that no real ceremonies seem to be happening? Anyway... I'm still doing predictions, in case they end up giving me bragging rights:

BEST PICTURE (DRAMA):
My prediction and the winner: Atonement

Duh. Why were people so surprised at this? The HFPA are not the guilds. They'll vote for whatever the hell they want. And it was clear all along that this one was their favorite.

BEST PICTURE (COMEDY/MUSICAL):
My prediction and the winner: Sweeney Todd

BEST ACTOR (DRAMA):
My prediction and the winner: Daniel Day-Lewis

BEST ACTRESS (DRAMA):
My prediction and the winner: Julie Christie

BEST ACTOR (COMEDY/MUSICAL):
My predicion and the winner: Johnny Depp (finally!)

BEST ACTRESS (COMEDY/MUSICAL):
My prediction and the winner: Marion Cotillard
(the only pure drama performance, and hence the winner)

BEST DIRECTOR:
My prediction: The Coen Bros (No Country)
The winner: Julian Schnabel (Diving Bell)

Like, whoa! Schnabel pulled an Ang Lee on the Coens. Does this mean Diving Bell will make it into best pic after all? Or is it just another case of the HFPA liking foreign things better than most?

BEST SCREENPLAY:
My prediction: Diablo Cody (Juno)
The winner: The Coen Bros (No Country)

Well, here's their consolation prize. I'm fine with them taking this from Cody, who's sure to win the oscar anyway (without really deserving it... methinks she could stand to mature a bit as a writer before winning the industry's highest honor, but whatevs).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
My prediction and the winner: Cate Blanchett (see? told ya)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
My prediction and the winner: Javier Bardem

BEST ANIMATED FILM:
My prediction and the winner: Ratatouille

BEST FOREIGN FILM:
My prediction and the winner: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
My prediction and the winner: Atonement

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
My prediction and the winner: Into the Wild ("Guaranteed")

I changed this one after going with Clint originally... glad I did.

Before the "ceremony", I said:

"The main reason I'm doing this is to put it on record that I still think Atonement will win the globe. It hadn't dropped off the radar yet (at least to this extent) while they were voting, and I think its 7 noms will still trump No Country's four. It's not exactly Cold Mountain vs Return of the King here. Atonement is much more of a "globe" type of movie. And let's not forget, for the past three years, the best pic winner at the globes has gone on to lose the oscar in the end. So their picking Atonement would actually be totally true to form. Hopefully, it gets the globe and the BAFTA wins, and thus leaves this year's award season with something to show for it."

And I stand by it. I also said:

"I'm also sticking by Cate Blanchett, who many seem to think will lose to Amy Ryan. Now, I realize I've had a history of underestimating Amy Ryan all season long, but I don't intend to stop now. I will go down fighting. Blanchett has a double nom this year and was once thought to be the frontrunner in this category, and she hasn't won a globe in 9 years (since the first Elizabeth). I really think she'll triumph here."

And so she did. And finally:

"But what does it matter anyway, since there's NO SHOW??? How depressing. I'm especially bummed that Johnny Depp will finally win an award, and we won't get a chance to hear him speak. And of course he probably won't repeat with oscar (assuming that show goes on at all). Damn."

This is the blurb I stand by most of all. I didn't even watch this thing (though let's be honest, I probably will on YouTube later), but regardless, Johnny Depp (and Sam Morton too) not getting to speak once they've finally won stuff SUCKS. Blah.

I'm depressed. Not only this, but I'm having personal life issues, and I start school tomorrow, and I'm just not in the mood to deal with it.

Oh well.

DGA nomination reactions

Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will Be Blood)
The Coen Bros (No Country for Old Men)
Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton)
Sean Penn (Into the Wild)
Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)

Hmmm... interesting. I'm so glad to see Gilroy here. It gives me hope that perhaps Michael Clayton will make best picture after all (though he could easily be left out). I thought the direction on Clayton was quite excellent, and would actually like to see it with best pic AND best director noms.

Also great (though more expected) to see Anderson here. I think Blood is in for pic and director. There seems to be a groundswell of support happening, and it has all the most important precursors. Anderson could still be the lone director, but I think that slot's more likely to go to Julian Schnabel, whose film I still can't see making the cut.

I think Atonement will be in for pic but not director (though it's getting shakier and shakier), and of course Penn and his film are in (but I really don't think they can win). Burton and Scott were hurt badly by this, though, and I think the chances for them and their films are dimming considerably. I also find it harder and harder to picture Juno in the best pic list, when it doesn't have SAG ensemble, the DGA, critics awards, or tech branches. People definitely love it, but with this new setback, I'm even more convinced it's just an actress/screenplay thing.

Anyway, I think this means best pic is headed to:

Atonement
Into the Wild
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

And best director to:

Paul Thomas Anderson
the Coen Bros
Sean Penn
Julian Schnabel

...and someone else. Maybe a career nod to Tim Burton? (without his film) Maybe Joe Wright can pull it out. Maybe there'll be a random resurgence for David Fincher, or a random shout-out to Todd Haynes. Perhaps Ridley isn't dead after all. Perhaps Gilroy could actually make it for best director. Very hard to say.

BFCA madness

Man, I am losing my passion for this awards prediction stuff. I'm assuming that's because I have more of a life lately, which I guess it a good thing. Anyway, I'm gonna do this anyway, since the BFCA awards are tomorrow and I have nothing particularly better to do. Here goes:

BEST PICTURE (top ten)
American Gangster*
Atonement*
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild*
Juno*
The Kite Runner
Michael Clayton*
No Country for Old Men*
Once
Ratatouille
Sweeney Todd*
There Will Be Blood*

I did well with this - 8 of my ten predictions made it, as did one of my two alternates. The only nominee I missed entirely was The Kite Runner, which I dumbly assumed would miss since it hasn't gotten great reviews (this is a CRITICS organization after all). But true to form, they snubbed much better reviewed and more acclaimed films (including my predictions Once and Ratatouille) to make room for something they thought had a chance with oscar. Whatever.

FOR THE WIN: I'm guessing No Country for Old Men takes this since it seems to be the consensus mainstream pick right now, as well as the critical favorite... but Into the Wild, Atonement or something else could still take this, I think.

ACTUAL WINNER: No Country for Old Men

BEST DIRECTOR
Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd*
The Coen Bros, No Country*
Sidney Lumet, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Sean Penn, Into the Wild*
Ridley Scott, American Gangster
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Joe Wright, Atonement*

Alright, so they had 6 nominees here... I guessed 4 of them out of 5 tries. If I'd chosen a 6th, I'm sure it would've been one of the other two that made it. Schnabel and Diving Bell got lots of love here and can't be counted out for oscar. Lumet can, though, I think, since his drearily nihilistic film is looking like more and more of a longshot in every category, especially here.

FOR THE WIN: This will be the Coen Bros... hard to see it going down any other way.

ACTUAL WINNER: the Coens

BEST SCREENPLAY
Atonement
Charlie Wilson's War
Into the Wild
Juno*
Lars and the Real Girl
Michael Clayton*
No Country for Old Men*
The Savages

This went down rather differently from how I thought. Annoying to see Sorkin popping up everywhere despite his film being something of a disappointment. Oh well. Fun to see Lars here, though... it actually has a decent shot at two oscar noms.

FOR THE WIN: That'd be Diablo Cody's Juno script -she's everyone's favorite person this year - barring a major sweep for No Country.

ACTUAL WINNER: Juno

BEST ACTOR
George Clooney (Michael Clayton)*
Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood)*
Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd)*
Ryan Gosling (Lars and the Real Girl)
Emile Hirsch (Viggo Mortensen)
Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah)
James McAvoy (Atonement)
Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises)
Denzel Washington (American Gangster)

3 out of 6 here. Ouch. But yay for Gosling, Hirsh and Mortensen! Sometimes it's nice to be wrong.

FOR THE WIN: Daniel Day-Lewis is looking like a steamroller, despite Depp's being in prime position for a career award. The dream role of Sweeney Todd might not be enough to stop DDL's "legend who needs two oscars" momentum.

ACTUAL WINNER: Daniel Day-Lewis

BEST ACTRESS
Amy Adams (Enchanted)*
Cate Blanchett (Elizabeth: The Golden Age)
Julie Christie (Away From Her)*
Marion Cotillard (La Vie En Rose)*
Angelina Jolie (A Mighty Heart)*
Keira Knightley (Atonement)
Laura Linney (The Savages)
Ellen Page (Juno)

4 of 6. Meh. Disappointed that they went with Blanchett here, starting the snowball effect that may well lead to her getting an oscar nod. I also missed Page, thinking they'd honor her in the young actress category instead, but it seems she's not young enough. Too bad for Knightley and Linney.

FOR THE WIN: Now that she's won the NBR, NYFCC and NSFC (and will likely win the drama globe as well), I'm betting that they're betting on Julie Christie for the oscar... which is why they'll pick her.

ACTUAL WINNER: Julie Christie

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Casey Affleck (Jesse James)*
Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men)*
Phillip Seymour Hoffman (Charlie Wilson's War)*
Paul Dano (There Will Be Blood)
Hal Holbrook (Into the Wild)*
Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton)*

5/5 for me here... though I'd predicted six nominees. Why do they stupidly have 6 spots for leading actors and 5 spots for supporting? That makes no sense. Anyway, this may well be the oscar list, too... though I hope PSH is switched out for, say, Max von Sydow (it could happen).

FOR THE WIN: Holbrook could upset, but I think Bardem still has the momentum here.

ACTUAL WINNER: Javier Bardem

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett (I'm Not There)*
Jennifer Jason Leigh (Margot at the Wedding)
Catherine Keener (Into the Wild)
Vanessa Redgrave (Atonement)
Saoirse Ronan (Atonement)
Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone)*
Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton)*
Marisa Tomei (Before the Devil Knows You're Dead)

3/5. I picked the wrong Briony, and also went for Tomei instead of perennial supporting actress favorite Catherine Keener. Oh well.

FOR THE WIN: This could swing to Ryan or even Keener, but I'm going with the safe pick, Blanchett.

ACTUAL WINNER: Amy Ryan (I was wrong! argh)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
3:10 to Yuma
Atonement*
Beowulf
Enchanted
Grace is Gone
Lust, Caution*
The Golden Compass
There Will Be Blood*

3/6 (but then I only guessed 5). Major starf*cking happening here with Eastwood. A little lazy of them voting for Enchanted. But whatever.

FOR THE WIN: I'm guessing Atonement, but I would see them honoring Greenwood or even Eastwood, too... tough to say.

ACTUAL WINNER: There Will Be Blood (wrong again... I underestimated their ability to choose a cool winner)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"A Hero Comes Home" (Beowulf)
"Come So Far" (Hairspray)*
"Do You Feel Me?" (American Gangster)
"Falling Slowly" (Once)*
"Guaranteed" (Into the Wild)*
"That's How You Know" (Enchanted)*

4/5... not bad for such a crazy category.

FOR THE WIN: I'll be optimistic and say "Falling Slowly" takes it, though I could see this going lots of different ways.

ACTUAL WINNER: "Falling Slowly" (right about this one... please please please let it win the oscar)

BEST SOUNDTRACK
Across the Universe
Hairspray
I'm Not There
Once
Sweeney Todd

They no longer have a soundtrack category! That's a shame, cause there were so many good choices this year. SO many musicals... sigh.

BEST COMEDY FILM
Dan in Real Life
Enchanted
Hairspray*
Juno*
Knocked Up*
Superbad*

4/5 here... not bad. I guess Enchanted was not funny enough for them to go with that instead of Dan in Real Life. Whatever.

FOR THE WIN: Probably Juno (doing gangbusters right now at the BO, and the most highly buzzed contender), but if they're just going for what's FUNNIEST (as it seems they did last year with Borat), then Knocked Up could take it.

ACTUAL WINNER: Juno

BEST FAMILY FILM
August Rush
Bridge to Terabithia
Enchanted*
The Golden Compass
Hairspray*
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix*
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End

3/5... so The Golden Compass is a family film? Hmmm.... curious. And one of the year's best family films? That's not what the reviews and box office seem to be saying. Ditto the reviews for August Rush. Anyway. Whatever. Why didn't they nominate Bridge to Terabithia here? I found it rather generic and mediocre but it WAS successful, and seeme a perfect fit for this category. Oh well.

FOR THE WIN: I'm saying Enchanted, since it really has that "family film" vibe, though I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Hairspray take it.

ACTUAL WINNER: Enchanted

BEST ANIMATED FILM
Bee Movie
Beowulf
Persepolis
Ratatouille
The Simpsons Movie

They didn't do this category either, according to their website. Curious.

ACTUAL WINNER: Ratatouille (OK yeah they did do this category, it just wasn't on their website)

BEST YOUNG ACTRESS
Nikki Blonsky (Hairspray)*
Ellen Page (Juno)
Dakota Blue Richards (The Golden Compass)
AnnaSophia Robb (Bridge to Terabithia)*
Saoirse Ronan (Atonement)*
Emma Watson (Harry Potter)

3/4. Why were there only 4 nominees? Weird. And how did I forget Dakota Blue Richards? Argh (though she wasn't quite as good in the film as its trailer had led me to believe).

ACTUAL WINNER: Nikki Blonsky (I forgot to predict a winner here, but it probably would've been her)

BEST YOUNG ACTOR
Michael Cera (Juno)
Michael Cera (Superbad)
Marcus Carl Franklin (I'm Not There)
Freddie Highmore (August Rush)*
Elijah Kelley (Hairspray)
Josh Hutcherson (Bridge to Terabithia)
Daniel Radcliffe (Harry Potter)
the kid from The Kite Runner
the kid from Sweeney Todd

1/5... wow, I bombed here. Whatever.

FOR THE WIN: Conventional wisdom would say Michael Cera, but I think perhaps he'll split his vote and allow it to go to the kid from The Kite Runner. That kid really deserves some kind of award for everything he put up with making that film.

ACTUAL WINNER: the kid from The Kite Runner (I was right!)

I didn't watch the awards, depressed as I was that they somehow managed to go on while the globes did not. Can you say BOYCOTT? Anyway. I did quite well in my predictions. The only two I missed were supporting actress (I keep underestimating Amy Ryan, and I'm sure I'll continue to do so) and score (I didn't think they'd have the balls to go for Johnny Greenwood... good for them). I also neglected to predict the ensemble acting category, but I would've guessed No Country there, so let's say I got three wrong (the winner was Hairspray... good for it). Still, that's not half bad for the first award show of the season.

But again, why does anyone care about these awards? The BFCAs are dumb.

SAG predictions + actuals

Sorry, I haven't done the stuff I said I'd do before (GG run-down, BFCA run-down, WHO'S HOTTER, etc.) but I will eventually (hopefully before people stop caring). I have a job now, and I am of course trying to see movies, so I've been busy. At least the personal drama seems to be settling down (though not in the way I wanted). Anyway... SAG tomorrow... my predictions are as follows:

BEST ENSEMBLE
Atonement
Hairspray
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men (for the win?)
Sweeney Todd
alt. Juno
3:10 to Yuma
American Gangster
Into the Wild

BEFORE THE NOMS, I SAID... This one is not quite clear. Atonement, No Country and to a lesser extent Michael Clayton look good to go. For the last two spots, I'm tapping the musicals, though in truth I think only one will make it. Juno is looming and is a good bet, but I'm betting the many famous singing actors in Hairspray (a true and deserving ensemble) and/or Sweeney (highly buzzed) will win out. Into the Wild is also a distinct possibility.

NOW, I SAY... What the F***!? Wow, this is crazy. Quite a wrench thrown in the works here. For one thing, the actors hate Atonement. That can't be good. It didn't get nommed ANYWHERE. Into the Wild recovered well from the globe snubbage, as many expected. American Gangster shows that it's still very much alive (even without Denzel). 3:10 to Yuma makes a surprise showing. And I was right about Hairspray. I was WRONG however about Michael Clayton, which managed three individual nods, but no mention here. Weird. Anyway, I suppose this means No Country is winning. Crazy.

MY SCORE: 2/5 (ouch)

BEST ACTRESS
Amy Adams
Julie Christie (for the win?)
Marion Cotillard
Laura Linney
Ellen Page
alt. Cate Blanchett
Angelina Jolie

BEFORE, I SAID... This one's tough. There are still a lot of women in play here... Jolie and Blanchett both have GG (drama) and BFCA noms, but I'm not predicting them. Knightley is obviously a possibility, but I think her likely ensemble mention is enough reason for them to pass on her here. Foster is still possible, as well. As is HBC, if they're crazy for Sweeney. But I'm going to go with Adams (who would seem like a stronger bet here than with oscar, even if she didn't have GG and BFCA noms, which she does) and Linney (who I'm hoping will surprise here, since she's loved by her fellow actors). I hope I'm right, since I love both actresses, and don't think Jolie and Blanchett need any more love. But we'll see what happens...

Note: I have tapped Christie to win here, and I think she will (legend who's never won a SAG award, critical frontrunner, etc.) BUT I think if anyone can beat her, it's Adams. She has a unique and singular (if un-oscary) role, and she rocked it like no one else could. And more importantly, her film has a big BIG advantage over all the others in that lots more people have seen it. It will reach $100 million soon. While Juno may start rolling in dough eventually, Adams is the clear populist choice as of now.

NOW, I SAY: Wow, I hate these noms. I guess Angelina is fine (though I didn't expect to see her here), but Blanchett AGAIN!? Come on, people, be a little creative. Could you really think of no one else to honor than someone whose movie totally flopped and was badly received and who is getting nominated in your other category anyway? How ridiculous. It just reeks of laziness and preordainment. And this kills Linney for good. I suppose these will probably be our 5 oscar nominees, though that would make me very sad. I'm still holding out for Keira (the SAG membership obviously doesn't like her, but AMPAS does) and/or Adams (a much more fun and justifiable choice than Blanchett).

MY SCORE: 3/5 (4/5 with my alternate)

BEST ACTOR
George Clooney
Daniel Day-Lewis (for the win?)
Johnny Depp
James McAvoy
Viggo Mortsensen
alt. Emile Hirsch
Ryan Gosling

BEFORE, I SAID... I think the awards radar is starting to hone in on these five men, for both SAG and oscar. The first three are locks, McAvoy carries a frontrunner film, and Mortensen's overdue and has been doing better than expected with precursors. Nevertheless, Hirsch, Washington, and perhaps even Gosling remain strong challengers here. But I for one would LOVE for these five to be the lineup (even though Clooney is the only one I've seen).

NOW, I SAY... No Depp. My goodness. And here, of all places (I love that both times I claimed an "epic battle for the win," one of my imagined competitors wasn't even nommed). At least Mortensen made it. And you gotta love that Ryan Gosling keeps getting noticed... lots of goodwill, he has. Shame about Depp, though. This really changes things... without Depp as competition, Daniel Day-Lewis should win this one in a walk, giving him lots of momentum against Depp at oscar time. If the latter is even nominated, that is. Oy vey.

MY SCORE: 3/5 (4/5 with my alternate)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett (for the win?)
Saoirse Ronan
Vanessa Redgrave
Amy Ryan
Tilda Swinton
alt. Jennifer Garner
Ruby Dee
Catherine Keener

BEFORE, I SAID... Alright. Four women all look lockish here: Blanchett, Ryan, Ronan, Swinton. I'd worry a bit for Ronan except that SAG in particular LOVES child actresses. So I think she's in. But the 5th spot is really hard to say. It could be anyone. I just picked Redgrave cause she seems like the type of legend who they'd just honor out of veteran worship. BUT that goes against the usual logic of smaller roles being honored only in ensemble at SAG. I do have this feeling about Garner making it here, but I only think she will if Juno gets in for ensemble... and currently I'm predicting it not to. Ditto Catherine Keener. BUT let it be known that I won't be surprised in the least if either of them makes it.

Note: I don't think Amy Ryan has much chance to win here, despite all the critical hosannas... I just don't think enough people have heard of her or her film, and SAG is quite populist. And while Blanchett's film is no blockbuster, everyone knows her and worships her AND Bob Dylan. And she's trumped a critical frontrunner here before. So I think it's hers.

NOW, I SAY... well, I said I was worried about Ronan... but I never actually expected her to miss. Crazy. They REALLY didn't care for Atonement. As soon as I noticed she was missing, I knew it was in trouble... she was its surest bet here. Damn. Anyway, Blanchett, Ryan and Swinton just keep on keepin' on, and I was also right about Keener, even though I didn't pick her even as an alternate. And perhaps most importantly, Ruby Dee finally makes an appearance. Does this mean she's in for oscar, too? And could she actually win the SAG, since she's in the most widely seen film? Blanchett has a double nom, so she'll be tough to beat. Hmmm...

MY SCORE: 3/5

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Casey Affleck
Javier Bardem (for the win?)
Philip Seymour Hoffman
John Travolta
Tom Wilkinson
alt. Hal Holbrook
Tommy Lee Jones

BEFORE, I SAID... I feel pretty confident about all of these. Affleck, Bardem, Hoffman and Wilkinson have yet to miss a major precursor... so they all seem safe. The globes swapped Travolta for Holbrook, and I think SAG will nod him, too, in keeping with my theory that they'll love Hairspray... though Holbrook should be a close 6th. Max Von Sydow, I think, could stage a William-Hurt-like coup at the oscars, but I don't expect to see him here.

NOW, I SAY... well, finally, a category where the surprises make my happy. Yay for shakeups. No Travolta or Hoffman! Yay! Two noms for No Country! Yay! But again, weird. And what does this mean for oscar? Tough to say. And could this impede Bardem's chances for a SAG win, or does it just strengthen them? Again, tough to say.

MY SCORE: 3/5 (4/5 with my alternate)

Anyway, yeah... not such good news for Sweeney and Atonement (to put it mildly), and extremely confusing in general. Did the SAG nominating committee even SEE Atonement and Sweeney? They haven't been in theaters, so if there weren't aggressive screening campaigns, maybe the actors just didn't see them? Or maybe they just hated them. Maybe they were turned off by Sweeney's bad singing, or Keira's bony clavicle. I don't know. What a wild ride this season has been for these two films. I'm so curious to see how they end up.

BEST ACTRESS: Cotillard VS Christie

The race is on. And doesn't it seem like a great race?
They embody total opposites on the awards radar:

hot young thing VS veteran/legend

mimicry/biopic VS fictional indie

big & intense VS subtle & understated

young deglamming VS old being beautiful

edited with a chainsaw VS edited normally

French chick in French film VS British chick in Canadian film

musical/comedy VS drama (at least according to the globes)

And most people seem to be firmly in one camp or the other. They're such vastly different stars in such vastly different roles and acting styles that it's hard not to pick a side. I myself have not seen La Vie En Rose and liked Christie's perf a lot, but didn't LOVE her like crazy. So I'm on the fence for now. But it seems that it'll be one of these women, or the other... unless someone else makes a splash in a big way.

NYFCC predictions

BEST PICTURE
My prediction: No Country for Old Men
My alternate: I'm Not There
Winner: No Country for Old Men

Bingo! I got this one. It just made sense, given what's been happening. Also, I'm Not There came in third, apparently, so it was not a bad choice as an alternate.

BEST DIRECTOR
My prediction: Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)
My alternate: The Coens (No Country for Old Men)
Winners: The Coens

Damn. Shoulda trusted my No Country hunch more fully (damn you, Glenn!)

BEST ACTOR
My prediction: Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises)
My alternate: Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood)
Winer: Daniel Day-Lewis

I decided not to play it safe on this one, thinking NY might wanna throw us a curveball (they often do). But I was wrong.

BEST ACTRESS
My prediction: Marion Cotillard (La Vie En Rose)
My alternate: Julie Christie (Away From Her)
Winner: Julie Christie

I knew I was wrong on this. I don't know why I predicted Cotillard. At least I had the sense to pick Christie as my alternate (if you count alternates, I'm doin' pretty well...)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
My prediction: Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men)
My alternate: Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton)
Winner: Javier Bardem

Yay! The obvious choice gets it.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
My prediction: Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton)
My alternate: Cate Blanchett (I'm Not There)
Winner: Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone) AGAIN

Geeeeeeez. I keep not predicting her, thinking her last award is really her last (at least for a bit). But she just keeps winning. How long can this go on? I really should've had her at least as an alternate. I just thought NY would finally buck the trend.

BEST SCREENPLAY
My prediction: Michael Clayton
My alternate: No Country for Old Men
Winner: No Country for Old Men

Again I had winner No Country as my alternate. I knew they'd love it, I just didn't realize they'd love it this much. Crazy. And sad about the continued lack of Michael Clayton love (apart from George Clooney).

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
My prediction: Lust, Caution
My alternate: The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Winner: There Will Be Blood

They clearly liked this one a lot.

BEST SCORE
My prediction: There Will Be Blood
My alternate: Atonement
Winner: none (but my prediction here won the prize for cinematography)

Anyway... I did better with these than with LA, at least if you count alternates. These were good choices overall by NY. Next up, globe noms. WOOP

Critics' Choice Award nomination predix

I'm gonna be insane and try to predict the noms in all their crazy categories. It's a fun challenge. Here goes:

BEST PICTURE (top ten)
American Gangster
Atonement
Into the Wild
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
Once
Ratatouille
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
There Will Be Blood
alt. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Hairspray

BEST DIRECTOR
Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd
The Coen Bros, No Country
Sean Penn, Into the Wild
Ridley Scott, American Gangster
Joe Wright, Atonement

BEST SCREENPLAY
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
The Savages

BEST ACTOR
George Clooney (Michael Clayton)
Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood)
Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd)
Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah)
James McAvoy (Atonement)
Denzel Washington (American Gangster)

BEST ACTRESS
Amy Adams (Enchanted)
Julie Christie (Away From Her)
Marion Cotillard (La Vie En Rose)
Angelina Jolie (A Mighty Heart)
Keira Knightley (Atonement)
Laura Linney (The Savages)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Casey Affleck (Jesse James)
Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men)
Phillip Seymour Hoffman (Charlie Wilson's War)
Paul Dano (There Will Be Blood)
Hal Holbrook (Into the Wild)
Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett (I'm Not There)
Jennifer Jason Leigh (Margot at the Wedding)
Saoirse Ronan (Atonement)
Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone)
Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton)
Marisa Tomei (Before the Devil Knows You're Dead)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Atonement
Beowulf
Lust, Caution
The Golden Compass
There Will Be Blood

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"A Hero Comes Home" (Beowulf)
"Come So Far" (Hairspray)
"Falling Slowly" (Once)
"Guaranteed" (Into the Wild)
"That's How You Know" (Enchanted)

BEST SOUNDTRACK
Across the Universe
Hairspray
I'm Not There
Once
Sweeney Todd

BEST COMEDY FILM
Enchanted
Hairspray
Juno
Knocked Up
Superbad

BEST FAMILY FILM
Bridge to Terabithia
Enchanted
Hairspray
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End

BEST ANIMATED FILM
Bee Movie
Beowulf
Persepolis
Ratatouille
The Simpsons Movie

BEST YOUNG ACTRESS
Nikki Blonsky (Hairspray)
Ellen Page (Juno)
AnnaSophia Robb (Bridge to Terabithia)
Saoirse Ronan (Atonement)
Emma Watson (Harry Potter)

BEST YOUNG ACTOR
Marcus Carl Franklin (I'm Not There)
Freddie Highmore (August Rush)
Elijah Kelley (Hairspray)
Josh Hutcherson (Bridge to Terabithia)
Daniel Radcliffe (Harry Potter)

LAFCA predictions & actuals

BEST PICTURE
My pick: No Country for Old Men
My alternate: Atonement
Winner: There Will Be Blood

BEST DIRECTOR
My pick: Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
My alternate: The Coens, No Country for Old Men
Winner: Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will Be Blood)

BEST ACTOR
My pick: Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood)
My alternate: Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises)
Winner: Daniel Day-Lewis

BEST ACTRESS
My pick: Laura Linney (The Savages and/or Jindabyne)
My alternate: Marion Cotillard (La Vie En Rose)
Winner: Marion Cotillard

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
My pick: Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton)
My alternate: Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men)
Winner: Vlad Ivanov (4 Months, 3 Weeks, and 2 Days)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
My pick: Cate Blanchett (I'm Not There)
My alternate: Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton)
Winner: Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone)

BEST SCREENPLAY
My pick: Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton)
My alternate: Christopher Hampton (Atonement)
Winner: Tamara Jenkins (The Savages)

BEST FOREIGN FILM
My pick: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
My alternate: 4 Months, 3 Weeks, and 2 Days
Winner: 4 Months, 3 Weeks, and 2 Days

BEST ANIMATED FILM
My pick: Ratatouille
My alternate: Persepolis
Winner: Ratatouille & Persepolis (tie)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
My pick: Lust, Caution
My alternate: Atonement
Winner: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

BEST SCORE
My pick: Atonement
My alternate: Lust, Caution
Winner: Once (except it was a "music" award)

NEW GENERATION AWARD
My picks: Diablo Cody and Ellen Page (Juno)
My alternate: Sam Riley (Control)
Winner: Sarah Polley (Away From Her)

Damn, I SUCKED at these. I got only two categories right (best animated and best actor), and those were fairly obvious (especially considering TWBB's dominance). Speaking of Anderson and TWBB, the buzz on it had been so quiet that I never considered it here. Good for it, though. Now Anderson at least is in prime position for a lone director nod... assuming the film doesn't make it in for best pic. Its new status as the critics' darling definitely makes the race more interesting.

But if I couldn't predict the L.A. awards, my predictions here in pic/director were right on for the Boston awards! Ironically. And Blanchett won the NYFCO. The really interesting thing, though, is all this Amy Ryan love. Is she becoming the frontrunner for the oscar? I could actually see her still not getting nominated at all (Peter Sarsgaard, anyone?). But again, she's making this much more interesting.

GOLDEN GLOBE nomination predix

BEST PICTURE - DRAMA
1. Atonement *lock*
2. No Country for Old Men *lock*
3. Michael Clayton *likely*
4. Into the Wild *questionable*
5. There Will Be Blood *questionable*
alt. American Gangster
& A Mighty Heart

BEST ACTRESS - DRAMA
1. Julie Christie (Away from Her) *lock*
2. Angelina Jolie (A Mighty Heart) *near-lock*
3. Keira Knightley (Atonement) *near-lock*
4. Jodie Foster (The Brave One) *questionable*
5. Ashley Judd (Bug) *wild card*
alt. Cate Blanchett (Elizabeth: The Golden Age)
& Halle Berry (Things We Lost in the Fire)

BEST ACTOR - DRAMA
1. Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood) *lock*
2. George Clooney (Michael Clayton) *near-lock*
3. James McAvoy (Atonement) *near-lock*
4. Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises) *questionable*
5. Brad Pitt (Jesse James) *wild card*
alt. Denzel Washington (American Gangster) *questionable*
& Emile Hirsch (Into the Wild)

BEST PICTURE - COMEDY/MUSICAL
1. Hairspray *lock*
2. Sweeney Todd *lock*
3. Enchanted *likely*
4. Juno *likely*
5. Once *questionable*
6. Knocked Up *questionable*
alt. The Savages
& Charlie Wilson's War

BEST ACTRESS - COMEDY/MUSICAL
1. Marion Cotillard (La Vie En Rose) *lock*
2. Amy Adams (Enchanted) *lock*
3. Ellen Page (Juno) *near-lock*
4. Helena Bonham-Carter (Sweeney Todd) *likely*
5. Laura Linney (The Savages) *likely*
6. Nicole Kidman (Margot at the Wedding) *questionable*
alt. Nikki Blonsky (Hairspray)
& Keri Russell (Waitress)

BEST ACTOR - COMEDY/MUSICAL
1. Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd) *lock*
2. Ryan Gosling (Lars and the Real Girl) *near-lock*
3. Tom Hanks (Charlie Wilson's War) *likely*
4. Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Savages) *likely*
5. Johnny Depp (Pirates: At World's End) *questionable*
alt. Don Cheadle (Talk to Me)
& Glen Hansard (Once)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Cate Blanchett (I'm Not There) *lock*
2. Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone) *near-lock*
3. Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton) *likely*
4. Saoirse Ronan (Atonement) *likely*
5. Jennifer Jason Leigh (Margot at the Wedding) *questionable*
alt. Kelly MacDonald (No Country for Old Men)
& Jennifer Garner (Juno)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men) *lock*
2. Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton) *lock*
3. Casey Affleck (Jesse James) *likely*
4. John Travolta (Hairspray) *questionable*
5. Sacha Baron Cohen (Sweeney Todd) *wild card*
alt. Philip Seymour Hoffman (Charlie Wilson's War)
& Paul Dano (There Will Be Blood)

BEST DIRECTOR
1. The Coen Bros (No Country for Old Men) *lock*
2. Joe Wright (Atonement) *lock*
3. Tim Burton (Sweeney Todd) *likely*
4. Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will Be Blood) *likely*
5. Sean Penn (Into the Wild)
alt. Ridley Scott (American Gangster) *questionable*
& Sidney Lumet (Before the Devil Knows You're Dead)

BEST SCREENPLAY
1. No Country for Old Men *lock*
2. Atonement *near-lock*
3. Michael Clayton *likely*
4. Juno *likely*
5. There Will Be Blood *questionable*
alt. The Savages
& I'm Not There

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1. Atonement *lock*
2. There Will Be Blood *likely*
3. Beowulf *likely*
4. Lust, Caution *questionable*
5. The Kite Runner *questionable*
alt. The Golden Compass
& Enchanted

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
1. Once ("Falling Slowly") *likely*
2. Hairspray ("Come So Far") *likely*
3. Into the Wild ("Guaranteed") *likely*
4. Enchanted ("That's How You Know") *likely*
5. Love in the Time of Cholera (whichever) *questionable*
alt. Beowulf ("A Hero Comes Home")
& The Golden Compass ("Lyra")

BEST FOREIGN FILM
1. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly *lock*
2. 4 Months, 3 Weeks & 2 Days *lock*
3. The Kite Runner *near-lock*
4. Persepolis *near-lock*
5. Lust, Caution *likely*
alt. Silent Light (Mexico)
& La Vie En Rose (France)

BEST ANIMATED FILM
1. Ratatouille *lock*
2. Beowulf *near-lock*
3. The Simpsons Movie *near-lock*
(Persepolis doesn't qualify, so I'm thinking this is the list)

What do people think of these? I guess it's a bit premature, but I felt like doing it. I suppose the most controversial thing about these predictions is my complete snub of American Gangster, but I don't think it's really so unlikely (plus, I have it as an alternate in several categories). I also included Brad Pitt over far more oscary candidates, cause I figure they may want him and Angie as a two-pack. Other "no guts no glory" choices include Ashley Judd for actress and A Mighty Heart for best pic. Yes, these are REAL predictions. I really think all these things will happen.