GG - Comedy/Musical: not a pretty sight

Yikes! Apparently the globe people are getting strict about dramedies trying to pass themselves off as comedies, even though they seem to have no problem with leading roles going supporting (sigh). Anyway, this year's GG comedy/musical field is pretty dismal. No real oscar hopefuls. Just one musical (and a widely reviled one, at that). Barely even any good movies to speak of. What a huge change from last year.

Rachel Getting Married, W, and Iron Man were all bumped up to drama, and that's not good news for any of them. In Rachel's case, I think that was the right call, though I now worry for Anne Hathaway's globe (and by extension oscar) chances. In W's case, I think, it's just plain wrong. All that film's value was in the comedy. Tragicomedy, sure, but I laughed at it a LOT (certainly more than I cried). And Josh Brolin really deserved that nomination.

Comedy actor is now particularly empty. All THREE leading contenders will apparently not be there. That'd be W and Iron Man again, plus Philip Seymour Hoffman in Synecdoche, NY. Who's left? Not many people! Dammit, why couldn't Glen Hansard in Once been eligible this year? Sigh. The hilarious thing is that the most likely candidate I can think of right now is actually Colin Farrell in In Bruges... wasn't he really good in that? It's apparently on the GG comedy list.

Anyway, don't be surprised if the list ends up looking like this:

Javier Bardem (Vicky Cristina Barcelona)
Steve Carrell (Get Smart)
George Clooney (Burn After Reading)
Colin Farrell (In Bruges)
Dustin Hoffman (Last Chance Harvey)

...with no one really looking like a frontrunner to win. Beyond these, there's Jack Black (Be Kind Rewind), George Clooney again (Leatherheads), Harrison Ford (Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull), Seth Rogen and James Franco (Pineapple Express). After those, you're really scraping the bottom of the barrell. Maybe they'll throw us a bone and put Robert Downey Jr's Tropic Thunder perf in lead?

I guess it's kind of cool in a way that the category's so vacant... it leaves possibilities for people you'd never think could surface here (like Bardem in Barcelona, or Farrell in anything). But it's also kind of depressing. I can't even remember the last time I literally couldn't picture ANY of the candidates winning. I was really counting on (and rooting for) Josh Brolin in W... or failing that, Robert Downey Jr. going all populist in Iron Man. Could Dustin Hoffman actually get a trophy again? How nuts.

Actress is a little better, but a little emptier now without Hathaway challenging for the win. These would be my predicted five:

Sally Hawkins (Happy-Go-Lucky)
Frances McDormard (Burn After Reading)
Sarah Jessica Parker (Sex and the City)
Meryl Streep (Mamma Mia!)
Emma Thompson (Last Chance Harvey)

...with Hawkins cruising to a win, barring a surge of love for silly, singing Streep (not impossible), or the HFPA's Carrie Bradshaw obsession running even deeper than we thought (also not impossible). I hope Hawkins wins; that'd be good consolation for her now that the oscar nod is looking less likely, what with Blanchett and Jolie breathing down her neck.

Other possible contenders here include Hathaway's other role (Get Smart), Amanda Seyfried (Mamma Mia!) Tina Fey (Baby Mama, having one of those years), Katherine Heigl (27 Dresses), McDormand again (for Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day), her costar Amy Adams, and the eponymous girls of Vicky Cristina Barcelona. We'll see what happens.

That leaves Best Picture. Yep, that one's pretty empty, too. Which of course means heterosexual male cinephiles everywhere will probably have to endure both Sex and the City and Mamma Mia! being up for this award (what's scarier is one of them could even win... the category still has no real frontrunner). If even my female directing professor loathes both these films, I can only imagine how straight men must feel.

My predictions, I suppose, would be as follows:

Burn After Reading
Happy-Go-Lucky
Mamma Mia!
Sex and the City
Vicky Cristina Barcelona

...but I could see any of these five being snubbed. Other very real possibilities include In Bruges, Last Chance Harvey, Tropic Thunder, and Pineapple Express. Somewhat longer shots: Get Smart, Cadillac Records, and Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day.

Any guesses at to what will win? I was really hoping (despite myself) that Rachel Getting Married would get placed here and then pull out a win. But with it out of the running, I'm worried that Sex or Mamma could really take it. But hopefully they split the divisive diva blockbuster vote, and the globes go all Mike-Leigh-highbrow with Happy-Go-Lucky.

It'll be interesting, at least.