quick guild predictions

OK. So. The PGA, DGA, and WGA are all announcing in the next few days, so I thought I'd offer up some predix.

PGA
Brokeback Mountain
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck.
Munich
Walk the Line
alt. King Kong

I once thought that Kong would be a gimme in this race, but the underwhelming box office has dulled its power considerably, so I'm leaving it out. Same with Cinderella Man. Brokeback and WtL are gimmes. Crash and GNaGL also seems highly likely. I'm not entirely confident in Munich, but I think it stands as good a chance as any... it still seems very up-in-the-air in just about every race. Of course, many others could pop up, of course, but these really seem like the best bets.

DGA
Woody Allen
George Clooney
Ang Lee
James Mangold
Steven Spielberg
alt. Paul Haggis

I wanna say Cronenberg has a shot, but he's the type of guy likely to bump someone from here come oscar time, probably Mangold. I also wanna say Paul Haggis will make it, since they sometimes give spots to people they know will only get writing nominations (e.g. Chris Nolan for Memento) but I think he comes in 6th here (maybe a tie?). They like Allen, so I think he's in. Same with Spielberg. Clooney and Lee, obviously. And I think Mangold will get in here, but miss the oscar nom, just like Hackford did for Ray. I do have this feeling that I'm underestimating Ron Howard, but I'm going to ignore it, I think. (they sure do like him, though...)

WGA (as far as I know, no major contenders are ineligible)

ORIGINAL
Woody Allen (Match Point)
Noah Baumback (Squid and Whale)
George Clooney, etc. (GNaGL)
Paul Haggis (Crash)
Miranda July (Me, You, and Everyone We Know)
alt. the committee who wrote Cinderella Man

First four are easy. Fifth spot is tough. July just seems to me like the type they'd go for... but then all five would be writer directors, right? Whoa. Not unheard of, but weird. Cinderella Man, Mrs. Henderson, Wallace & Gromit, and Junebug all seem possible. Who knows.

ADAPTED
Jeffrey Caine (Constant Gardener)
Dan Futterman (Capote)
Stephen Gaghan (Syriana)
Tony Kushner (Munich)
McMurtry and Ossana (Brokeback Mountain)
alt. Deborah Moggach (Pride & Prejudice)

I really wanna predict A History of Violence here, but I can't quite do it. Eh. I also really wanna say Pride & Prejudice will make it here, but it doesn't seem to be factoring into anybody's screenplay predictions whatsoever, since it's pretty well accepted that it was a great adaptation of a tricky book. I decided to go with P&P as the alternate. But really, I don't have much faith in either of them. Oh well.