Oscar Predictions! woop

BEST PICTURE - Brokeback Mountain
I don't really buy the Crash hype, but I am a little bit scared at the possibility that BBM could lose. Not nearly scared enough not to predict it, though. Ennis & Jack forever.

BEST DIRECTOR - Ang Lee, BBM
A no-brainer. Easiest call of the night. Well, there are several of those, actually... but still.

BEST ACTOR - Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Sigh. Part of me still thinks a Ledger upset is possible, but that part of me is not the rational part. Hoffman will be taking this... sadly.

BEST ACTRESS - Reese Witherspoon, WtL
Easy. Get ready, Reese, you're up. Sorry, Felicity.

SUPPORTING ACTOR - Jake Gyllenhaal, BBM
Okay... my brain says George Clooney wins this, but do oscar voters vote with their brains or their hearts? Answer: their hearts. Always. And most people's hearts will say "Jake". He is so endearing and wonderful in this *lead* role. Plus, he's gay and he dies. That always works for awards, doesn't it? Anyway, realistically, George is the safe choice, but I am going out on a limb on this one and I'll be REALLY happy if I'm right.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS - Rachel Weisz, tCG
Eh. I don't really believe in her completely, but I think Adams and Williams will be splitting the dissenting votes. Like Jake, Rachel will ride her *lead* role to a win, I think.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY - Crash
Sigh.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY - Brokeback Mountain
Easy.

CINEMATOGRAPHY - Brokeback Mountain
This one could go to either GNaGL or Geisha, but I think it'll go to the best pic winner... and you know they love the landscapes.

EDITING - Crash
I think it will go to Crash or Munich (though Constant Gardener is a definite possibility), and Crash makes more sense, since it is the anointed "best pic runner-up" after all and will probably get multiple awards.

ART DIRECTION - Memoirs of a Geisha
I want to say King Kong could upset here (it's certainly worthy), but I think this will be one of Geisha's two (or more) wins. At least I hope so, since it wouldn't be outright ROBBING anything here.

COSTUME DESIGN - Memoirs of a Geisha
I want to say Pride & Prejudice could upset here (it's certainly worthy), but... yeah, see above.

MAKEUP - Chronicles of Narnia
Seems like the logical choice. Though I think Star Wars might have a good shot here.

VISUAL EFFECTS - King Kong
Duh.

SOUND - King Kong
Big and loud, and it's main competition, Walk the Line, wasn't quite as beloved as Ray (which won last year), let alone Chicago (which won a few years back).

SOUND EDITING - King Kong
...but a War of the Worlds win here wouldn't shock me.

ORIGINAL SCORE - Brokeback Mountain
Now, I know Williams looks like the frontrunner (for Geisha), but this is hardly one of his greatest scores... when he wins, it's generally for something BIG that becomes a pop-culture fixture, like, say, the Star Wars theme. So I think he cancels himself out and Brokeback takes it home (as it should).

ORIGINAL SONG - Dolly Parton, Transamerica ("Travelin' Thru")
Whatever, any of them could win. But I think Dolly will take it on sentiment, and cause she's by far the most famous of the nominees.

FOREIGN FILM - Paradise Now
I don't know why Tsotsi is considered the frontrunner when this won the golden globe. I think Paradise Now takes it.

DOCUMENTARY - Murderball
I think that, after seeing all five films, the voters will go for great grittiness over popular sentimentality. I say Murderball wins.

So...
Brokeback Mountain = 6 wins (though the Jake win is iffy at best... we'll see how that goes...)
King Kong = 3 wins
Crash = 2 wins
Memoirs of a Geisha = 2 wins

Thoughts?