Oscar Nomination Predictions & my scores/reactions

OK, I will get right to it.

My preditions that did not pay off are in asterisks next to the actual nominee in italics.

BEST PICTURE
Brokeback Mountain
Crash
Goodnight, and Good Luck.
Munich
Capote *Walk the Line*

4/5 (but I got Munich!)
I am rather shocked that Walk the Line was left out, as it was the only real box office hit in contention (though Brokeback will get there soon). I think they were trying to be explictly political this year in their choices... Walk the Line was just too "safe." And I'm still surprised that Capote was nominated here.


BEST DIRECTOR
George Clooney (GNaGL)
Paul Haggis (Crash) *David Cronenberg (aHoV)*
Ang Lee (BBM)
Bennett Miller (Capote)
Steven Spielberg (Munich)

4/5
Wow. No lone director. This is kind of a bummer, since I really thought Cronenberg would make it.


BEST ACTOR
PS Hoffman (Capote)
Terrence Howard (H&F)
Heath Ledger (BBM)
Joaquin Phoenix (WtL)
David Strathairn (GNaGL)

5/5 (yay!)
Nice choices here. Good category.


BEST ACTRESS
Charlize Theron (North Country) *Joan Allen (Upside of Anger)*
Judi Dench (Mrs. Henderson)
Felicity Huffman (TransAmerica)
Keira Knightley (P&P) *Naomi Watts (King Kong)*
Reese Witherspoon (WtL)

3/5
OK, whatever. I took some chances due to the "preferential ballot" factor. I really thought Allen would make it, since those who love her perf REALLY love it. But alas.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
George Clooney (Syriana)
Matt Dillon (Crash)
Paul Giammati (Cinderella Man)
Jake Gyllenhaal (BBM)
William Hurt (aHoV) *Frank Langella (GNaGL)*

4/5
I ditched Hurt after Ed Harris won the NSFC award cause I thought it would confuse people... and I'd been feeling Langella lately. Oops.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams (Junebug)
Frances McDormand (North Country) *Maria Bello (aHoV)*
Catherine Keener (Capote)
Rachel Weisz (Constant Gardener)
Michelle Williams (BBM)

4/5
Oh well. Sucks for Bello. But sometimes you just have to stick to the precursors, even if they don't make much sense.


ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Crash
GNaGL
Match Point
Squid and Whale
Syriana

5/5
People were saying the Syriana switch happened too late for people to have actually voted for it, but that always sounded like a load of bull to me. Plus, what else would've been nommed in its place?


ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BBM
Capote
Constant Gardener
aHoV
Munich

5/5
The screenplay categories were made easy when Syriana's category was switched. This one only had 5 other viable candidates left.


ART DIRECTION
Harry Potter *BBM*
GNaGL
King Kong
Memoirs of a Geisha
P&P

4/5
DIdn't see Harry Potter coming, but I think I did better than most here, cause I did see P&P making the cut.

COSTUME DESIGN
Charlie & Chocolate Factory *GNaGL*
Mrs. Henderson Presents
Memoirs of a Geisha
P&P
WtL

4/5
Man, I hated Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, which is maybe why I wasn't taking it seriously here. Oh well. Still got everything else right.


CINEMATOGRAPHY
BBM
Batman Begins *Constant Gardener*
GNaGL
Memoirs of a Geisha
The New World *Munich*

3/5
Eh. Whatever. I guess it's nice that Batman Begins got in somewhere. But the Constant Gardener snub is odd.


EDITING
Cinderella Man *BBM*
Crash
GNaGL
Munich
WtL

4/5
Cinderella Man over Brokeback Mountain!? Bizarre. Especially since BBM's editor died recently.


MAKEUP
Chronicles of Narnia
Cinderella Man
ROTS *The New World*

2/3
I totally almost predicted Star Wars: ROTS here, but I chickened out. Wierd that this is its only nomination... definitely not what we all expected.


VISUAL EFFECTS
King Kong
Chronicles of Narnia *ROTS*
War of Worlds

2/3
Really insane that they went for Narnia here instead of Star Wars, since ROTS was the #1 box office success of the year, and the Narnia effects were just not that good (too much does not equal good). Whatever.


SOUND
Chronicles of Narnia *Crash*
King Kong
Memoirs of a Geisha *ROTS*
War of Worlds
WtL

3/5
Narnia and Memoirs were kind of random choices... all these Memoirs tech/sound nods remind me of when Road to Perdition was nommed for sound, sound editing and other tech awards and I got seriously annoyed. Ugh.


SOUND EFFECTS EDITING
King Kong
Memoirs of a Geisha *ROTS*
War of Worlds

2/3
Memoirs again, over Star Wars. Weird.


ORIGINAL SCORE
BBM
Constant Gardener *Cinderella Man*
P&P *King Kong*
Memoirs of a Geisha
Munich

3/5 (but I did get both Williams nods!)
I did see the Munich nod coming, but I am rather shocked at the Constant Gardener here. Also didn't think Pride & Prejudice had a chance in this category, but I'm happy to be proven wrong - great music in that film. Sad about King Kong, though. I thought it was in.


ORIGINAL SONG
Crash - "In the Deep"
*Elizabethtown - "Same in Any Language"*
"It's Hard Out There For a Pimp" *Hustle & Flow - "Hustle & Flow"*
*The Producers - "There's Nothing Like a Show on Broadway"*
TransAmerica - "Travelin' Thru"

2/3
Weird condensing of the category, but yeah, the eligible songs were totally weak. They should've have disqualified the Brokeback song. It was beautiful and might've won here otherwise.

ANIMATED FILM
Howl's Moving Castle
Tim Burton's Corpse Bride
Wallace & Gromit

3/3
YES.

Overall prediction rate: 70.6%
Eh. Not terrible, I guess. But I could've done better... maybe this is a sign that I'm obsessing less about oscars and more about useful things? That would be nice. That's the theory I'm going with.

So here's what I thought the tallies would be before the nominations were revealed:

BBM: 10 noms (really 8... what's with the editing snub?)
GNaGL: 9 noms (really 6... what's with the editing snub?)
Crash: 6 noms (right on the money... but I thought the 6th would be sound, not directing)
WtL: 6 noms (really 5... but other than picture, I got all it's noms right)
Munich: 6 noms (really 5... overestimated it slightly, but not by much... I was right that it was still alive)
King Kong: 6 noms (really 4... I was reaching with my Watts prediction)
Capote: 4 noms (really 5... it DID get in for best picture... and I'm surprised)
Memoirs: 4 noms (really 6... what's with those sound nods?)
aHoV: 3 noms (really 2... no Cronenberg... and Hurt made it over Bello... weird)
Constant Gardener: 3 noms (really 4... good showing)
Cinderella Man: 3 noms (right on... but one off)
Pride & Prejudice: 2 noms (really 4... and I'm SO happy!)

And more:

I might be underestimating Capote, Crash and Constant Gardener a bit, or overestimating GNaGL or Munich, but whatever. Not feeling Capote for best pic for some reason... maybe it's the Keener factor making it seem like Being John Malkovich, which also missed? I dunno. Also taking a chance on Watts making it for King Kong... I'm being stubborn and predicting snubs for both Theron and Zhang (along with McDormand and Crowe) cause no one truly loves their performances... and Watts, to me, seems like the most likely surprise nominee for best actress, even if King Kong as a whole is dead. Anyway, we'll see. Can't wait for the noms to finally be out, and for this preseason guessing to be OVER. Phew.

And what I say now:

Well, I was right about underestimating Capote, Crash, and Constant Gardener, and about overestimating GNaGL and Munich (though I'm happy I got the Munich nod right). I'm NOT happy that best actress turned out so predictable (but go Keira!). Still surprised that Capote got nommed for best picture. Still surprised that the weath was spread so wide. I'm wondering what BBM will end up winning, other than pic/director/screenplay... one or two more wins seem in order... I still think Williams could take it, and will probably predict her for the win... probably Santaolla will win score... and cinematography will be either GNaGL or this, I'd think. Hmmm... interesting. Anyway, I'm very happy for Focus Features, who really got their due this year with 16 total nominations and, finally, a best picture frontrunner. Good for them. They're the best studio out there.

More later. Now, back to real life.