NBR predictions actuals and run-down
So I didn't do that well. But the NBR is insane, even moreso than usual this year, and very hard to predict. I did make a few good calls, of which I am proud. Let's see...
BEST PICTUREMy prediction: Little Children
1st alternate: The Queen
2nd alternate: The Departed
Actual winner: Letters from Iwo Jima
Oh my. Well I guess it's getting nominated then. I may not have seen Letters coming, but this I did know: the NBR love to help out a film that needs them and then take credit for its success. When people check back to see when where and when the Letters frenzy started, they'll be seeing it right here.
TOP TEN FILMS
Babel
Blood Diamond
The Departed
The Devil Wears Prada
Flags of Our Fathers
The History Boys
Letters from Iwo Jima (#1)
Little Miss Sunshine
Notes on a Scandal
The Painted Veil
Conspicuously absent: Dreamgirls, The Queen
The ones I predicted are in bold. Both my alternates (the Eastwood films) also made it. It was stupid to leave off the Eastwood films. The reason I did, I guess, is cause I figured if Letters was in their top ten, then it would have to win foreign film, but I thought Volver would win foreign film, so I just left both Flags and Letters off. But they of course gaveLetters best picture instead of best foreign film, so that solves that quandary. Eastwood will be BIG this year again, and Letters will probably win the globe for foreign film, just as Gandhi and Chariots of Fire have previously.
BEST ACTOR
My prediction: Peter O'Toole, Venus
1st alternate: Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond and The Departed
2nd alternate: Matt Damon, The Good Shepherd and The Departed
Actual winner: Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
I'm STUPID. I really did know in my brain that if it wasn't O'Toole, it would be Whitaker. But I didn't even have him as an alternate, cause Matt and Leo both had two films to work with, and the NBR likes awarding actors for bodies of work. Er, at least they used to. Anyway, this puts Whitaker in a very good position. He's assured of a nod at this point, and could easily win the globe, too.
BEST ACTRESS
My prediction: Helen Mirren, The Queen
1st alternate: Penélope Cruz, Volver
2nd alterate: Kate Winslet, Little Children and The Holiday
Actual winner: Helen Mirren, The Queen
The one major category that I actually got right. But it was easy. Helen Mirren will be sweeping.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
My prediction: Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
1st alternate: Jack Nicholson, The Departed
2nd alternate: Ben Affleck, Hollywoodland
Actual winner: Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamond
WHOA, so outta nowhere. But good for him. He is quality. This gives him a leg up on an oscar nod. btw, if I hear one more person call this film "The Blood Diamond" I will scream. I hate when people add random articles to titles.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
My prediction: Maggie Gyllenhaal, World Trade Center and Stranger Than Fiction
1st alternate: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
2nd alternate: Meryl Streep, A Prairie Home Companion and The Devil Wears Prada
Actual winner: Catherine O'Hara, For Your Consideration
I am not surprised. I'd considered predicting her (and she'd actually have been 4th on my list), but I figured the bad response to FYC would doom her. Not so. I think it may actually be helping her; people are remembering her as the best thing about the otherwise uneven film, and want to give her her due. It'd be great to see her be nominated (crosses fingers). As for Maggie, I was feeling really good about her for this award, but it looks like she won't be as much of an awards factor as I thought... and I think the NBR have now officially dropped their "body of work" preferences.
BEST BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR
My prediction: Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat
1st alternate: James McAvoy, The Last King of Scotland
2nd alternate: Patrick Wilson, Little Children
Actual winner: Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson
Goddammit. I WANTED to predict Ryan, but I figured The Notebook in '04 was his breakthrough. I guess it was only Rachel McAdams' breakthrough to the NBR. Stupid NBR. This "breakthrough" award of theirs is meaningless. Anyway, this will help Ryan get that oscar nod. I can't wait to see this film. People I know have really liked it.
BEST BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS
My prediction: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
1st alternate: Penélope Cruz, Volver
2nd alternate: Gretchen Mol, The Notorious Bettie Page
Actual winners: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls and Rinko Kikuchi, Babel
Nice, I got this one. Or at least half of it. But my prediction, Jennifer, didn't need this award; it's Rinko who really benefits. Maybe she will edge out Adriana Barraza for that nom. In any case, I'm glad the NBR showed some restraint here and didn't just throw it at Penélope Cruz.
BEST DIRECTOR
My prediction: Martin Scorcese, The Departed
1st alternate: Clint Eastwood, Flags of Our Fathers and Letters from Iwo Jima
2nd alternate: Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu, Babel
Actual winner: Martin Scorcese, The Departed
Right on the money. Now let's just hope Clint doesn't steal his oscar (note: I'm actually not that attached to the idea of Marty winning for this movie - I didn't love it - but it's just a matter of simple decency; giving it to Clint AGAIN so soon would just be ridiculous).
BEST DIRECTORIAL DEBUT
My prediction: Jonathan Dayton & Valerie Faris, Little Miss Sunshine
1st alternate: Ryan Fleck, Half Nelson
2nd alternate: Jason Reitman, Thank You For Smoking
Actual winner: Jason Reitman, Thank You For Smoking
Well, it knew it would be one of these three. I haven't seen Reitman's film, so I have no comment. I guess this helps his bid for a screenplay nod, though.
BILLY WILDER AWARD FOR EXCELLENCE IN DIRECTING
My prediction: Clint Eastwood
1st alternate: Paul Greengrass
2nd alternate: Oliver Stone
Actual winner: Jonathan Demme
Whatever.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
My prediction: Michael Arndt, Little Miss Sunshine
1st alternate: Zach Helm, Stranger Than Fiction
2nd alternate: Pedro Almodóvar, Volver
Actual winner: Zach Helm, Stranger Than Fiction
I kind of knew this would happen. But I let my personal feelings about Helm's screenplay get in the way. The NBR likes to reward very "writerly" screenplays, even if they don't deserve it, so I'm really not surprised at all.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
My prediction: Ron Nyswaner, The Painted Veil
1st alternate: Todd Field & Tom Perotta, Little Children
2nd alternate: Patrick Marber, Notes on a Scandal
Actual winner: Ron Nyswaner, The Painted Veil
OK, I'm pretty proud of myself for this one. Everyone was saying Little Children, but I thought this would be the perfect place to honor Veil and help it build momentum. Glad I'm predicting it for a nom at the oscars... looks like it will happen now.
BEST ENSEMBLE CAST
My prediction: Babel
1st alternate: Little Miss Sunshine
2nd alternate: The Departed
Actual winner: The Departed
I said it would win either director or ensemble, and lookie here, it won both. Good for them. There were a lot of good choices in this category (strong year for ensembles), but this is definitely one of the best. Kudos.
OUTSTANDING PRODUCTION DESIGN
My prediction: Children of Men
1st alternate: Marie-Antoinette
2nd alternate: Dreamgirls
Actual winner: none
It seems they didn't give this award this year. Odd. They usually do. NEXT.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
My prediction: An Inconvenient Truth
1st alternate: Shut Up and Sing
2nd alternate: This Film is Not Yet Rated
Actual winner: An Inconvenient Truth
Damn straight. Now give it the oscar!
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
My prediction: Happy Feet
1st alternate: Monster House
2nd alternate: Cars
Actual winner: Cars
Blah. Boring. I guess when there is no big standout animated film of the year, the one with all the $$$ wins. NEXT.
BEST FOREIGN FILM
My prediction: Volver
1st alternate: Pan's Labyrinth
2nd alternate: Letters from Iwo Jima
Actual winner: Volver
Volver takes it. Good. But look out for it to lose the globe to Letters.
SPECIAL ACHIEVEMENT IN FILMMAKING
My prediction: David Lynch for writing, directing, and producting Inland Empire
1st alternate: Sacha Baron Cohen for writing and acting in Borat
2nd alternate: Todd Field for writing, directing and producing Little Children
Actual winner: none
Apparently no one was worthy this year. No one wonder I was having such trouble coming up with viable predictions.
CAREER ACHIEVEMENT AWARD
My prediction: Robert Altman
1st alternate: Peter O'Toole
2nd alternate: Oliver Stone
Actual winner: Eli Wallach
Who's that?
One final note: the NBR "Freedom of Expression" award this year goes to Water and World Trade Center. Gag me. I haven't seen Water, but... World Trade Center??? WHAT did it express??? Nothing. There's the NBR for you.
And on that note, I am done. Discuss at your leisure.
Peace.
posted by adam k. @ 6:55 AM
15 Comments:
You're quick! I really don't want to do the NBR predix this year, mostly because the end results are so depressing, but why fight what is inevitable. I'll have mine up by Monday or Tuesday night, I suppose. I don't expect to do as well as I did last year though.
Do you really think they'll include both Eastwood flicks on the roster? I'm thinking since they'll bite the bait for Letters as opposed to Flags since they love new toys that no one else has seen yet.
I'm really pissed at WB for releasing both films this year. It's clearly a desperate attempt to save face after the Flags disappointment. I hope the plan backfires and cancels out all the votes - I liked the film, but I can't think of another year dealing with the usual suspects. How boring - fresh blood please!
Little Children is a pretty ballsy prediction, but then again considering some of their picks over the last few years - Gods and Monsters, Quills and L.A. Confidential, they can be hardcore at times. Good stuff - I'm not sure what my prediction will be yet, but I think it will definitely show up on the list.
Best Actor - they've always gone with the frontrunner, but I'm not feeling O'Toole right now. He'll probably win the Oscar, but I don't believe he has the category in every precursor locked up.
What am I doing? I should be saving this commentary for my own post. Damn you Adamo!
I should really edit my comments before I post them - clearly, that first "since" should not be there in the second paragraph.
I think the Little Children pick is completely plausible - it'd be my prediction too.
But I don't know about Helen Mirren. I think they'll give it to Penelope Cruz, paving the way for all the other precursors to award her too - possibly bumping Mirren out of the frontrunner status??
Yeah, I'm thinking about Little Children as well. Last year they gave it to Good Night and Good Luck and as Ali mentioned they've given it to other small ones like Gods & Monsters and Quills.
But do you notice what those three titles as well as other winners like Moulin Rouge! have in common? They're all about the industry. Not all film, but you got writing (Quills), film (G&M), television (GN&GL), theatre (Moulin Rouge!). ...just a theory of mine.
And, also.
Jonathan Dayton & Valerie Faris are probably gonna win every newcomer awards for directing Little Miss Sunshine. Some could give a few to Jason Reitman for Thank You For Smoking though.
Yeah, I wasn't gonna do these for a while, but last night I got all possessed. So not only did I do them, I did them for like every category imaginable.
Glenn, thanks for the tip on Dayton & Faris. I wasn't sure they were both first-time directors, but yeah, duh, I had actually read about that somewhere (but wait, then why isn't Sunshine in the Best First Feature category at the Spirits?). Anyway, the more I think about it, the more I admire their work on the film... moreso than the script, anyway.
I am really feeling the Little Children thing. Cause it's totally unexpected except, when you think about it, it's not. It totally fits with their other "shock" choices. They like films about alternative sexualities and/or transgressive sex (Gods & Monsters, Quills, The Hours). They like films about suburbia/domestic drama (American Beauty, Mystic River), and they like heady and subversive dramas and dramedies (Quills again).
They also REALLY like to surprise people and choose shaky but potentially very awardsy prestige pieces, so they can take credit for their success later on, deserved or not. And Little Children could REALLY use the boost.
Dreamgirls just seems too obvious. I'm thinking they spread the wealth and give Hudson and Murphy individual honors instead (Hudson seems primed for that "best breakthrough performance" award).
Agreed that they might go with Cruz. I really wanted to predict her for either best actress or best breakthrough, but she ended up my 1st alternate both times. I might change that and some other things, but for now, there we are.
p.s. another thing Little Children has going for it is that they loved In The Bedroom. It was their #2 and won both director and screenplay in 2001.
Thought:
Breakthrough Male: Sasha Baron Cohen for Borat (and maybe Talledega Nights).
If there was a definition for "Breakthrough" in 2006 it will be Hudson and Cohen.
I'm actually thinking of changing to Ryan Gosling for breakthrough. That is considered a breakthrough, right? I certainly didn't know who he was before Half Nelson.
Wasn't Cohen already sort of famous on TV for the same character? I dunno, I felt like it was more likely they'd give him the "special achievement in filmmaking" cause it was such a unique multi-task achievement. But maybe not...
It's all so arbitrary. Their breakthrough/career distinction/etc awards are so ridiculous and everyone knows they're a joke. I don't think I'll even bother with them this year and rather just stick to the main categories.
Oh it's fun to try to do them though. This year it seems a little easier cause Jennifer Hudson seems like the runaway winner for breakthrough. But or course they could still go fraudulent and choose Cruz.
I am mostly interested in seeing who their breakthrough actor is. I think McAvoy deserves it most, but they'll probably go with Cohen, Gosling, or maybe Patrick Wilson.
Actually before I saw McAvoy deserves it should really see Gosling and Patrick Wilson.
Well, I know it doesn't mean anything when it comes to the NBR (i mean, Charlize and Paul?!?) but Ryan Gosling was in The Notebook and Murder by Numbers and that movie where he played a nazi or something.
And McAvoy was in Narnia for christ sake. One of the highest grossing movies of the decade.
But, yeah, who knows really.
Let us also remember that Beyonce is a Breakthrough contender.
Yeah, Ryan Gosling probably doesn't qualify for breakthrough, even in the NBR's twisted mind (I forgot he was in The Notebook). And McAvoy WAS in Narnia, but he played a faun and had kind of a tiny role. I dunno. Even Patrick Wilson already has Angels in America, but that was a TV movie... people are calling Little Children his breakthrough film.
Hm, maybe you're right, though, they'll probably give it to Cohen. He's the only one I honestly had not heard of before this year.
I don't know if Beyoncé can be called "breakthrough" cause she was already VERY famous (like, more famous than Charlize was), and besides, they wouldn't vote for her over Hudson. If anyone beats Hudson to breakthrough, I'm expecting it to be Cruz, in a Charlize-like "look, now she's a serious actress" type of thing. Or MAYBE Gretchen Mol... but not really.
I'll murder you all if "Letters" takes Foreign at the Globes.
But I loved it that they ignored "Dreamgirls" and "The Queen". Some excitement AT LAST.
The lack of locks this year is stunning.
I never saw The Queen as a lock. I don't know what everyone else is smoking.
I mean, it will probably still get nominated, but maybe people (like Nat for example) will dial it back to "yellow" for The Queen. It has yet to show proof that it's a lock for anything other than Best Actress.
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