Sunday, December 10, 2006

Critics' awards predictions, actuals and reactions

Alright. Here we go:

NYFCC (my predictions; correct ones in bold)
Picture: United 93 (alt. Letters from Iwo Jima)
Director: Paul Greengrass, United 93 (alt. Clint Eastwood)
Actor: Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson (alt. Ken Watanabe, Letters)
Actress: Penélope Cruz, Volver (alt. Kate Winslet, Little Children)
Supporting Actress: Carmen Maura, Volver (alt. Barazza or Kikuchi, Babel)
Supporting Actor: Jackie Earle Haley, LC (Kazunari Ninomiya, Letters)
Screenplay: Todd F. & Tom P., Little Children (alt. Almodóvar, Volver)
Foreign Film: Volver (alt. Letters from Iwo Jima)

I got best picture right. I rock. Director went to Marty again, though (Greengrass wasn't even a runner-up)... seems to be a trend... even when they pick something as unique and director-dependent as United, they give best director to Marty. I say he wins he oscar, even if Letters wins best picture.

Actor and actress went to Mirren and Whitaker again (boring... I thought NY would be more interesting than that), though my prediction, Gosling, was the runner-up. Interestingly, Dench seems to be the one coming closest to Mirren in the critics' awards, so maybe she'll be the biggest threat for oscar, too? She's as due in her own way as Kate and Meryl.

In a shocker, JHud takes supporting actress. This award was the LAST one I thought we'd see her win, oscar or no oscar. I mean, it's the NYFCC! If she can win them over, I think she's deaded for the little golden guy. The other supporting award went to my prediction, Jackie Earle Haley. Yay! Maybe now he can sneak into the oscar race...

In other news, The Queen seems to be the screenplay favorite, rather than either of the Little films. Will it take best original screenplay? We'll see.

LAFCA (my predictions; correct ones in bold)
Picture: Letters from Iwo Jima (alt. The Departed)
Director: Martin Scorcese, The Departed (alt. Clint Eastwood)
Actor: Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland (alt. Leo DiCaprio)
Actress: Helen Mirren, The Queen (alt. Penélope Cruz, Volver)
Supporting Actor: Jack, The Departed (alt. Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls)
Supporting Actress: Catherine O'Hara, FYC (alt. Barazza or Kikuchi, Babel)
Screenplay: Todd & Tom, Little Children (alt. Almodóvar, Volver)
Foreign Film: Volver (alt. Letters from Iwo Jima)
New Generation: Jennifer Hudson (alt. Shareeka Epps)

I got THIS best picture right, too. I ROCK. But they gave director to Greengrass over Marty (while NY awarded Marty over Greengrass). I flipped the two in my predictions... and really that would've made more sense, but whatever.

Mirren and Whitaker again. Yawn. Though the tie with Sacha Baron Cohen is very cool, and gives him a leg up in other races. I say he wins the comedy globe (easily) but still doesn't get nommed for the oscar.

Supporting actor goes to Sheen from Queen (very good for him), while someone named Luminita Gheorghiu wins supporting actress. Good for her! You know you're great when you win an award absolutely out of the blue, and with a name like that.

And screenplay goes to The Queen again. Hmm...

Boston (my predictions; correct ones in bold)
Picture: The Departed ("it will win... it's about Boston"... and look, it did.)
Director: Marty, The Departed ("he'll win," I said... and look, he did.)
Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Departed (alt. Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson)
Actress: Annette Bening, Running with Scissors (alt. Mirren, The Queen)
Supporting Actor: Nicholson, The Departed (alt. Wahlberg, The Departed)
Supporting Actress: JHud, Dreamgirls (alt. Catherine O'Hara, FYC)
Screenplay: William Monahan, The Departed (alt. Little Children)
Foreign: Volver (alt. Letters from Iwo Jima)

Yes, I got THIS one, too. I ROCK, yes? But this was easy. Departed takes pic, director, screenplay and supporting actor, as I predicted (though the latter win was in fact for Wahlberg... I had a hunch that might happen).

Whitaker and Mirren AGAIN. Seriously. What is up?? SOMEONE else needs win something. This is BORING. Anyway, supporting actress goes to Shareeka Epps, who is not the black female breakthrough performer I predicted, but fine. Good for her.

And has anyone else noticed that Jack (Nicholson, that is) has not been winning these? I kinda thought he would. But that's fine by me; I wasn't bowled over by his performance in The Departed, and I don't want him winning a fourth oscar for it. Maybe this means he won't.

AFI Top Ten (my predictions; correct ones in bold)
Children of Men
The Departed
Flags of Our Fathers
Letters from Iwo Jima
Little Children
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
United 93

Strangely, Flags, Departed, Queen and both the Children films are chucked in favor of Borat, Prada, Half Nelson, Happy Feet and Inside Man. Well, the Children films I'm not shocked about, but the others, especially Departed were supposed to be there. Oh well! Crazy AFI. It is strange that The Queen in particular seems to have VERY uneven support; it flat-out misses the AFI and NBR lists, but wins a bunch of LAFCA awards and is best picture from the NYFCO. Odd.

And seriously, Happy Feet and Inside Man??? If you say so...

Anyway, check in later for BFCA reactions. That is just too much for me to do right now.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

Woo, nice going with that Wahlberg alternate pick. In related news, could the Boston critics have been any more predictable?

(But I'm secretly glad that it wasn't Eastwood love galore, like I was fearing. I'm shocked that L.A. went for Letters as Best Pic, since they've ignored his last two efforts entirely.)

8:12 PM  
Blogger JavierAG said...

I think Cruz is winning tomorrow too. Like OMG I need a shock!

However "United 93" for New York? That sounds like something Washington would go for - and it did.

9:24 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Although I'm not a fan of United 93, it would be exciting to see it as a Best Picture threat. That category has been pretty boring recently - the rise of Iwo Jima and the Greengrass film is nifty (as long as they do not unseat more deserving candidates.) I am totally in favor of a Little Miss Sunshine snub, so bring it on!

10:13 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

And I'm also thinking Cruz gets the NY prize tomorrow, unless they are TOTALLY boring and go with Mirren as well. Which could also happen.

At least I hope they go with someone other than Whitaker in the lead actor race.

10:14 PM  
Blogger adam k. said...

Yeah if all the groups go for Mirren and Whitaker, I will die of boredom. I hope NY goes for Cruz or perhaps Judi Dench or Kate Winslet. They did after all give it to Heath over PSH.

I too would rather United 93 get nominated than Little Miss Sunshine, so I hope it cleans up in the precursors.

I would also really really love it if a critics group gave Hugh Jackman best actor (either for everything or just for Fountain, I don't care). But I don't expect that to happen.

And can we just all notice that I correctly predicted Letters for best picture in LA, and Departed for everything in Boston (pic, director, screenplay, and I had Wahlberg for alternate in supporting actor... though I'm still wondering why they didn't just give it to Jack... except I think Wahlberg actually LIVES in Boston... that'd explain it).

2:57 AM  
Blogger JavierAG said...

Whoa! Big, big congrats on guessing the THREE Best Pictures correctly =)

1:58 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Indeed. Adam, that's pretty damn amazing.

7:17 PM  
Blogger adam k. said...

Thank you, thank you. What can I say? I'm a master.

I would've gotten all three directors, too, but for some reason NY chose Marty and LA chose Greengrass, instead of the other way around. Counterintuitive. And frustrating, for me.

4:02 AM  
Blogger adam k. said...

Oh, and I also would've gotten all best actor and best actress wins if I'd just been boring and picked Whitaker and Mirren EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. Why are they doing this? There were other great perfs this year. I really thought it'd be a little more varied.

4:03 AM  

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