Friday, January 19, 2007

How far can Forest go?

"Run, Forrest, run!"

Can Forest Whitaker actually win the oscar?

The globe win gave me more confidence, but I still have my doubts. And his speech didn't really help either. People were super excited when he won, and clapping and cheering like crazy, but maybe that's because they knew that that was his last chance to win a big award? I have my doubts about that oscar, and about the SAG award, too.


I currently think that Smith will win the SAG and O'Toole will eke out a victory in the three-way race to the oscar. SAG-wise, Whitaker and especially O'Toole are at a disadvantage, since few people have seen their films, including the many thousands of SAG voters. Approximate box office totals:

Venus: $220,000
The Last King of Scotland: $3.7 million
The Pursuit of Happyness: $140 million (and counting)

I honestly don't see how Smith loses the SAG, unless people really don't think of him as worthy of a win and hence don't vote for him. He is, however, the kind of big box office megastar that often leaves SAG voters cold (Nicole Kidman for example is often snubbed, as was Will Smith himself for Ali a few years back), and Forest is the kind of longstanding, only sorta famous character actor whom SAG respects. So he MIGHT win. Hoffman, for example, won the SAG just last year over the more widely seen Heath Ledger - yeah, he was on a hell of a run already, but then, so is Whitaker. Of course, Capote had more heat than Last King overall... which is strange to me, since Last King is just as good a film, in my view. And of course, O'Toole will be taking some votes, too, so this year is different than last.

But all things considered, I feel like Smith has the advantage with SAG. And if he wins, Whitaker stumbles from his nonstop awards grabbing, leaving O'Toole the opening he needs. It looks like either Whitaker wins both the SAG and the oscar, denying O'Toole his first oscar, or Smith wins the SAG and O'Toole pulls ahead in the oscar race.

It's all quite suspenseful, though I must say I actually don't care all that much. I wish I did, but in my world, Hugh Jackman owns this category, along with probably Ryan Gosling, who I haven't yet seen. And if neither of them can win, then I don't really care who does.

2 Comments:

Blogger Ali said...

You've been suggesting that Smith has the best chances to win the SAG for a while now Adam, and I don't really see it happening (for pretty much the same points you've raised.) Why didn't Sissy Spacek win over the little-seen (at the time) Halle Berry in Monster's Ball? Why did Diane Keaton (in a very popular box office hit) lose out to Charlize? The low grosses of these winning actors' films didn't play a factor then with SAG, so why would they now?

Forest Whitaker has received scorching, "one of the best performances by an actor ever" kind of reviews, not to mention the billions of precursor and critics' citations. I think voters are aware of his name by this point and will take the time to watch their screeners, go to the guild showings, etc.

If you make an argument on the grounds of Smith's popularity in the industry, then I'd agree with you. He is well liked for reasons that are obviously beyond me, and that cannot be denied in this kind of competition. And I'll agree that Whitaker did not do himself any favours with that "speech" (if you can call it that.) Still, I think Whitaker is smooth-sailing towards the Oscar - O'Toole is a threat because of sentimental reasons and the overdue, but it's not always an absolute (see Scorsese for Gangs and The Aviator.

11:33 PM  
Blogger adam k. said...

Well, I'd also been saying Babel would win the globe for best picture, and look how that one turned out ; )

But really, I don't know why I keep beating the Will Smith drum. I guess I like making suggestions like this that no one else seems to agree with, as long I think there's any merit to them at all.

I'm taking my cue from the people who've been saying all season that Will Smith is a real factor in the race. If he's a real factor in the race, then he could easily win the SAG, where popularity counts. Sissy Spacek's film didn't have the kind of box office Pursuit has, and Keaton's film was light, and kinda bad.

Maybe I'm looking for Whitaker to lose something before the oscar, since I still think O'Toole will win the oscar? And O'Toole really can't win SAG, cause NO ONE at all has seen his film.

Maybe it's just that I don't think Whitaker's performance really is "one of the best by anyone EVER" or even the best of the year, and that's why I'm not buying the "unbeatable" tag (though I still think it's great and totally better than Smith).

I dunno, it just doesn't feel to me the way it felt with Hoffman and Capote last year. I just don't think Whitaker will make it all the way.

3:01 AM  

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