Thursday, September 27, 2007

Golden Globes - Best Actress

I have some random predictions for the globe Best Actress categories, cause I feel like it.

DRAMA
Halle Berry (Things We Lost in the Fire)
Cate Blanchett (Elizabeth: The Golden Age)
Julie Christie (Away From Her)
Angelina Jolie (A Mighty Heart)
Keira Knightley (Atonement)

CATEGORY...?
Marion Cotillard (La Vie En Rose)
Nicole Kidman (Margot at the Wedding)
Laura Linney (The Savages)

JUST HOW MUCH DO THEY LIKE HER?
Jodie Foster (The Brave One)

Interesting race, this one. I don't really expect it to look much like the oscar list. Of the five I'm choosing, Knightley seems the most "locked" as of now... it's just hard to imagine her not being swept up with her film, especially in such a weak field. But I think Blanchett and Jolie can pretty much count on nods, too. The HFPA loves Jolie, and all her charity stuff is most likely keeping her in their sights. And they love Blanchett, too, and will probably nominate her here even if the academy does not (she won for the first Elizabeth). It remains to be seen how much they'll like Berry or remember Christie, but with a weak field, they seem the most likely to round out the category. I don't think Foster will be in. The Brave One is NOT getting the reviews necessary for an awards run, and perhaps more importantly, is not making much of a dent in the box office. The more likely spoiler, I think, is Cotillard, who MIGHT make a play for this category and not comedy/musical. But if Ray and Walk the Line were placed there, I don't see why this wouldn't be. It's not exactly Dancer in the Dark-level intense with the drama... is it? (I haven't seen it)

The other thing is... who will win this??? I honestly can't see ANY of them going the distance. I'm stumped. Any thoughts? Maybe Blanchett and The Golden Age will impress more than early word suggests. Maybe Atonement will sweep. Maybe Berry will pull a Swank and become the frontrunner... AGAIN. Maybe Christie will become the new Spacek in In the Bedroom. Only time will tell. It just would've been nice if there was some overdue legend in a great role this year... last year had more than its share.

COMEDY/MUSICAL
Helena Bonham-Carter (Sweeney Todd)
Marion Cotillard (La Vie En Rose)
Nicole Kidman (Margot at the Wedding)
Laura Linney (The Savages)
Ellen Page (Juno)

TOO MAINSTREAM?
Katherine Heigl (Knocked Up)

TOO SMALL A ROLE?
Nikki Blonsky (Hairspray)

WILL SHE BE RELEASED?
Michelle Pfeiffer (I Could Never Be Your Woman)

Yikes! This category's packed, no? Much harder to predict than drama, I think. Basically, I can't see any of the five I chose being left out, if early word is correct. But I really think Blonsky and/or Heigl will find a way in. The most likely scenario is that some of the five I chose will find a home outside of this category (Cotillard, Kidman, and/or Linney in drama, Bonham-Carter in supporting), but even that is hard to imagine. What do you think, readers?

And who will win this one? My gut is telling me Marion Cotillard or Helena Bonham-Carter, mainly depending on how well Sweeney Todd goes over and whether La Vie En Rose is placed here. Though I suppose Ellen Page in Juno could be bigger than I think...

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11 Comments:

Blogger Rural Juror said...

Cotillard would be Comedy/Musical. I've not seen La Vie En Rose myself (and, as a whole, it's been getting pretty mediocre reviews so I probably won't), but it really just follows the traditional biopic formula.

3:56 AM  
Blogger Rural Juror said...

oh...and there's also Samantha Morton in Control, but, as with Sam Riley, it's hard to know whether that would be Drama or Musical/Comedy. I don't think she actually sings in the movie so, it'd be hard to put here in the latter.

4:03 AM  
Blogger adam k. said...

I have never heard of Control. And probably not many others have either. But I suppose she can never be counted out.

4:23 AM  
Blogger Rural Juror said...

It's the biopc of Ian Curtis of the Joy Division that premiered at Cannes. Honestly, I don't see it having much of a chance but, hey.

4:30 AM  
Blogger Kamikaze Camel said...

As I said in the men's post Control will surely not be classed as a musical. Although I could actually see Samantha Morton getting a surprise Oscar nod for supporting actress. She has several big scenes and if she gets some critics love then I could see it happening very easily.

Blonski is hardly short of screentime in Hairspray though.

5:44 AM  
Blogger Kamikaze Camel said...

Oh, and:

"It's not exactly Dancer in the Dark-level intense with the drama... is it? (I haven't seen it)"

It thinks it is.

5:51 AM  
Blogger adam k. said...

Blonsky has lots of screentime in Hairspray, but in terms of it being a LEAD, it's a little skimpy. She's definitely the lead dramatugically, and should be placed lead, but it's a really an ensemble... everyone kind of shines equally. But I still think she'll probably get the nod.

I wonder who'll go drama in order to make room.

9:12 PM  
Blogger Kamikaze Camel said...

oh, BAM! Amy Adams in Enchanted. Hollywood Elsewhere (linked by Nat today) has a great bit of eavesdropped info - she's amazing.

9:33 AM  
Blogger adam k. said...

Enchanted? Really? In the trailer, that looked so... bad.

And soooooo non-awardsy. I really think that if any "light" contenders get spots in this crowded field, it'll be Blonsky and/or Heigl, who both have headlined certified "big hits." If you're "light", you need to be in a big hit. Or else be one of their pets (la Z... and usually people only become pets by first being in big hits).

Amy Adams is another one of those they've snubbed before for worthy work... i.e. they don't like her.

11:32 AM  
Blogger Kamikaze Camel said...

Enchanted could easily be just as big as Knocked Up and Hairspray. It's got the freakin' Tranksgiving spot with no Harry Potter or Pixar to counter it. Besides, I thought it looked pretty darn good.

Heigl would certainly fit into the double-nom thing I mentioned in the other entry because they'll surely nom her for Grey's.

But just because they've snubbed them before doesn't mean they'll snub them again.

12:46 AM  
Blogger adam k. said...

Hmm, maybe I'm underestimating it. She could definitely be nominated if it gets big.

Also, Glenn, who do you want brought back from the dead in the tournament? I'm assuming Chris Evans, but I shan't assume.

1:09 AM  

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