GG nominations (w/ my predictions)

BEST PICTURE (DRAMA)

My predictions:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Milk
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire
The Wrestler
alt. The Reader

Actual nominations:
Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

My success rate: 3/5
That's 4/5 with my alternate. I had a feeling The Reader would surprise here. But the Milk exclusion floored me. Don't expect it to transfer to Oscar - Capote, for example, got nothing but a best actor nod here either - but it's still disheartening and a bit of a shock. In any case, the Rev Road crew must be happy. Today really saved them.

BEST ACTOR (DRAMA)

My predictions:
Leonardo DiCaprio
Frank Langella
Sean Penn
Brad Pitt
Mickey Rourke
alt. Clint Eastwood

Actual nominations:
DiCaprio
Langella
Penn
Pitt
Rourke

My success rate: 5/5

100%! Yay! I'm SO glad they booted Clint Eastwood. Maybe he'll be shut out of oscar after all? And yay for me for being right about it. With any luck, the oscar race will be similar to this, probably with Jenkins replacing Pitt... we'll see.

BEST ACTRESS (DRAMA)

My predictions:
Anne Hathaway
Angelina Jolie
Melissa Leo
Meryl Streep
Kate Winslet
alt. Cate Blanchett

Actual nominations:
Anne Hathaway
Angelina Jolie
Meryl Streep
Kristin Scott Thomas
Kate Winslet

My success rate: 4/5
Not bad predictions from me. I saw the Blanchett snub coming (just not enough room). But I thought they'd keep the Leo train going here, instead of stopping it in its tracks. Kristin Scott Thomas can breathe a sigh of relief that she hasn't been totally forgotten this awards season. She's not the critical fave we expected her to be, but she's still right back in the thick of it. I would expect that this will be close to the oscar lineup, with Hawkins replacing someone, mostly likely Jolie. But Leo and Blanchett aren't out of it yet... SAG will tell the tale.

BEST PICTURE (COMEDY/MUSICAL)

My predictions:
Burn After Reading
Happy-Go-Lucky
Mamma Mia!
Sex and the City
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
alt. Cadillac Records

Actual nominations:
Burn After Reading
Happy-Go-Lucky
In Bruges
Mamma Mia!
Vicky Cristina Barcelona

My success rate: 4/5
Pretty strong slate of nominees, all things considered. All of these were acclaimed films, give or take global phenom Mamma Mia!, which you can't really blame them for recognizing. Given their love of Vicky Cristina overall, it could be headed for a win here, but the recent critical love for Happy-Go-Lucky will boost its profile. In Bruges could take it, too, I think. We'll see.

BEST ACTOR (COMEDY/MUSICAL)

My predictions:
Javier Bardem
Steve Carrell
George Clooney
Colin Farrell
Dustin Hoffman
alt. Robert Downey Jr.

Actual nominations:
Javier Bardem
Colin Farrell
James Franco
Brendan Gleeson
Dustin Hoffman

My success rate: 3/5
Not a bad score from me, in what turned out to be a pretty crazy category. Good for them for loving In Bruges, and for finding a way to honor James Franco even if they didn't love Milk. And I'm SO happy about Javier Bardem's including. Now who can win this? I'd guess it's Hoffman's to lose (as I said before the noms came out), seeing as he's got the pedigree and no one else is really standing out.

BEST ACTRESS (COMEDY/MUSICAL)

My predictions:
Sally Hawkins
Frances McDormand
Sarah Jessica Parker
Meryl Streep
Emma Thompson
alt. Scarlett Johansson

Actual nominations:
Rebecca Hall (!!!)
Sally Hawkins
Frances McDormand
Meryl Streep
Emma Thompson

My success rate: 4/5
WHOA. So the only one I missed was SJP? Color me shocked. I guess they feel like they've honored her enough? And good on them for resisting the urge to nominate my alternate, ScarJo, and instead tapping her superior (but unknown) co-star Rebecca Hall. Very nice. And yay for me for predicting McDormand, even if I didn't see the Parker snub coming.

BEST DIRECTOR

My predictions:
Danny Boyle
David Fincher
Sam Mendes
Christopher Nolan
Gus Van Sant
alt. Darren Aronofsky

Actual nominations:
Danny Boyle
Stephen Daldry
David Fincher
Ron Howard
Sam Mendes

My success rate: 3/5
You win some, you lose some. I'm proud of myself for calling Mendes (I knew RR would get a life preserver from this group). But I'm kicking myself for not going with my earlier hunch that The Reader would do well here. Honestly, I'm not at all surprised by Daldry's nod. But no Gus Van Sant for Milk? Color me shocked again. Oscar will rectify that one, to be sure. Though they'll probably keep Ron Howard. Sigh.

BEST SCREENPLAY

My predictions:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
Slumdog Millionaire
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
alt. Milk

Actual nominations:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

My success rate: 4/5
Not bad. I'm proud of myself for having the foresight to exclude Milk, though I'm sad that I was right. Didn't see The Reader coming, but I'm not really all that surprised. I think the win's between Doubt and Frost/Nixon, depending one which one they aren't able to honor elsewhere. Interesting tidbit: these are all adapted screenplays. Is this the oscar list? Curiously enough, the only major contender missing is RR, which did very well in the nominations overall. What does that mean for its oscar prospects in this category? Also, this doesn't help clear up the original screenplay race, which will be a Battle of the Snubbed (Rachel Getting Married v. Milk).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

My predictions:
Josh Brolin
James Franco
Philip Seymour Hoffman
Heath Ledger
Michael Shannon
alt. Robert Downey Jr.

Actual nominations:
Tom Cruise (!!!)
Robert Downey Jr.
Ralph Fiennes (for Duchess, not Reader)
Philip Seymour Hoffman
Heath Ledger

My success rate: 2/5
3/5 with my alternate... what a nutso category. This muddies the waters considerably. Tom Cruise?? Really??? Whatever. And wierd of them to love The Reader so much but nominate Fiennes for his other film instead. Way to confuse oscar voters. Nice to see Robert Downey Jr. here, though. Sad and rather shocking to see Franco and especially Brolin excluded, but apparently they thought Milk was all about Sean Penn. Brolin, at least, will be back at oscar time for sure.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

My predictions:
Amy Adams
Penélope Cruz
Viola Davis
Taraji P. Henson
Kate Winslet
alt. Marisa Tomei

Actual nominations:
Amy Adams
Penélope Cruz
Viola Davis
Marisa Tomei
Kate Winslet

My success rate: 4/5
5/5 with my alternate. So did pretty well. I'm proud of myself for calling Adams. But I'm a bit surprised that they went with Tomei even though they didn't give The Wrestler a best film nod. Interesting. But Kate Winslet must be the happiest one of the night. Two nods for her, and for both her films as well. She's sitting pretty. I still expect Cruz to win this one, but Winslet's certainly a threat.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

My predictions:
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL•E

Actual nominations:
Changeling
Benjamin Button
Defiance
Frost/Nixon
Slumdog Millionaire

My success rate: 3/5
Not bad for this category.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

My predictions:
Australia
Sex and the City
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL•E
The Wrestler

Actual nominations:
Bolt
Cadillac Records
Gran Torino
WALL•E
The Wrestler

My success rate: 2/5
Meh. I hope The Wrestler wins (I think it will).

BEST FOREIGN FILM

My predictions:
The Class
Gomorrah
I've Loved You So Long
Let the Right One In
Waltz with Bashir
alt. The Necessities of Life

Actual nominations:
The Baader Meinhof Complex
Everlasting Moments
Gomorrah
I've Loved You So Long
Waltz with Bashir

My success rate: 3/5
Eh. Whatever. This category's hard. I think it's I've Loved You So Long or Gomorrah for the win.

BEST ANIMATED FILM

My predictions:
Kung Fu Panda
WALL•E
Waltz with Bashier
alt. Bolt

Actual nominations:
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
WALL•E

My success rate: 2/3
3/3 with my alternate, but there were really only 4 contenders in this case. I forgot they had a way to honor Waltz with Bashir outside this category, hence the opening for Bolt. But WALL•E will win this in a walk.

So, in conclusion...

Single person given most benefit from these nominations: Kate Winslet
(I hope she and Sam and their beautiful kids throw a big party)

Single person hurt most by these nominations: Michael Shannon
(misses critics' awards and now misses with the globes, too, even when his film does well... ouch... not a good day for Michael)

Film that hit the biggest stumbling block: Milk (but it'll recover... that NYFCC award turned out to be very important after all)

Most ridiculous nomination in any category: Tom Cruise

Most welcome surprise inclusion: Rebecca Hall

Most welcome surprise exclusion: Clint Eastwood in best actor
(though they of course found ways to honor him elsewhere)

Most unwelcome surprise exclusion: everyone from Milk except Sean Penn (what's up with that?)

Who will win? Tough to say. The globes threw a few wrenches in the works, and that's exciting!

Streep v. Winslet is still on, and hotter than ever. I can't imagine they'll let 5-time nominee Doubt go home with nothing (even though they DID exclude it from best picture... weird, right?). I also can't imagine they'll let 2-time nominee Winslet go home with nothing. I also can't imagine Cruz not winning. So what gives? Something has to.

Can Penn win best actor all by his lonesome, all Capote-style, paving the way for lots of oscar nominations for his film? Or will Kate and Leo go home with his & hers statuettes? Or will Rourke take it?

Does Heath Ledger have the globe win sewn up? Especially since his main competition, Josh Brolin, was snubbed?

Is it still Button v. Slumdog for best picture (drama)? What about the comedy category?

Very exciting.