guild reactions/thoughts

OK, so I went 4/5 on PGA (didn't see Capote coming, saw Munich instead, like most), 3/5 on DGA (again didn't see Capote coming, but my alternate, Paul Haggis, made it), and 3/5 and 4/5 on WGA (though my aHoV hunch was correct).

As for SAG, 3/5 with ensemble (again, didn't see Capote coming, or the totally out-of-left-field, still-reeling-my-head-over-it Hustle & Flow), 4/5 on best actor (Crowe somehow keeps popping up, and how weird is it that Howard scored in ensemble, but not here, 3/5 on actress (I went against the grain with Kilcher and Allen, but I had a feeling Charlize would be here), 4/5 on supp. actor (missing the random Cheadle nod; boy, does SAG like him), and a dismal 2/5 on supp. actress (though my alternate made it... I should've gone with my gut and chucked ScarJo and/or Keaton for McDormand... though I must confess I did not think Keener or Adams would place here... good for them.)

I was running a pretty decent 70% until my really bad calls for supporting actress. Anyway, thoughts on the oscar race:

-I think best pic will be Brokeback, Crash, GNaGL, Munich, and Walk the Line... just like Nat has been predicting for awhile now... I don't think the DGA snub for WtL means much at all; it is still safe... I do think Munich will be nominated (unless something unexpected happens) and I don't think Capote will be, despite the guild love... I just don't see it happening at all.

-I think Brokeback will lead the pack with 9 or 10 noms, and probably win... GnaGL, Munich, and WtL will each get 6 or 7, probably, and Crash will trail with about 5 (picture, screenplay, Dillon, editing, and song, perhaps? I don't really see it getting best director).

-I think the 5th slot for best actor is down to Crowe and Howard, and I think it will go to Howard, but given that Crowe now has BFCA, GG, and SAG noms, a nom for him could hardly be called surprising.

-I think actress is very up-in-the-air... conventional wisdom says the SAG list transfers right over, but I really don't see Zhang making it, nor do I believe in Theron, really... I still want to say it will be Allen and some random person... or perhaps Allen and Theron... I am losing faith in Knightley.

-I think supporting actor will be Clooney, Dillon, Giamatti, Gyllenhaal, and Hurt... but Hurt is still very iffy... I'll have more faith if he wins NSFC, which I think he will

-I now think Keener will be making the cut in supporting actress... I have less faith in Adams, cause her film is so small and she's so unknown... I wanna say Bello, ScarJo, Keener, Weisz, Williams... but clearly McDormand is a major threat.

-Capote will get nommed for actor, supporting actress, screenplay, and maybe something else somewhere, but no director or picture, I don't think.

-I think Allen and Cronenberg are still big threats for best director.

So, tallies:
Brokeback -9 or 10 (depending on art direction)
GNaGL - 7 (pic, director, screenplay, actor, cinematography, art direction, editing)
Munich - 6 or 7 (pic, director, screenplay, cinematography, editing, sound, maybe art direction)
Walk The Line - 5 or 6 (pic, actor, actress, editing, sound, maybe costumes)
Crash - 5 (pic, screenplay, supporting, editing, either director or song)
Capote - 3 or 4 (actor, supporting actress, screenplay, maybe director or something else)
Kong and Geisha - 5 or 6, all techs

Phew. Very tough to read this year. I think the love with be spread all around. Fun, fun.