Sunday, October 08, 2006

Alright, back to film awards.

So Proof is good and over. Bye bye, Proof. Now it's time to get back to prognosticating. Here are my thoughts on the Best Actress globe races:

Cate Blanchett (The Good German)
Ashley Judd (Bug)
Nicole Kidman (Fur: An Imaginary Portrait of Diane Arbus)
*Helen Mirren (The Queen)
Kate Winslet (Little Children)

Annette Bening (Running With Scissors)
Penelope Cruz (Volver)
Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls)
Beyoncé Knowles (Dreamgirls)
*Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada)

That's right, I think ScarJo may actually fail to get a nomination this year. I don't see how they'd make room for her.

These lineups seem like easy guesswork. Assuming Annette goes the comedy route (which it really seems she will), then she should place without much trouble... as will Cruz, I think, along with Streep and the two Dreamgirls. From this lineup, it looks like Streep would win, as well she should. It's a travesty that she's never won this category, despite Postcards and Death Becomes Her. The real question is whether JHud will be put in lead. If so, she'll split the vote with Beyoncé.

The drama lineup, after removing Bening, also seems pretty straightforward. No highly buzzed contender is left out. Mirren and Winslet are locks. Kidman is Kidman, and will of course be here even if her film fails to factor in the oscar race. Blanchett is apparently a force to be reckoned with. And Judd I think will take the last slot even if she fails to get an oscar nod for Bug. It's Mirren VS Winslet for the win, I think, with Mirren taking it if current wisdom holds.

It would be really cool to see two postmenopausal women win these categories this year, even if I'd rather see Winslet win one. So I think I'll be pleased no matter what happens. Even the tragic spectacle of Beyoncé winning a globe would be kind of enjoyable in a trainwreck/WTF/fascinating kind of way.

Anyway, yeah. Whatcha think?


Blogger JavierAG said...

Basically, I'll think Cruz will take it easily should she go Comedy/Musical.

1:51 AM  
Blogger adam k. said...

Have you seen Volver? Maybe it's even better than I think.

But how often do foreign perfs win golden globes? How often do they win golden globes over Meryl Streep?

3:26 AM  
Blogger Kamikaze Camel said...

But is Volver gonna go down the comedy route? It would make sense in that Pride & Prejudice did it and, really, all they need to do is secure Cruz a spot on the Best Actress list (the film is inneligable for Best Picture no matter the categorisation), but does she want to be see as merely a comedy performance? We'll see.

If Cruz does go drama though, I'd say someone like Anne Hathaway or, yes, Scarlett for Scoop will take her spot and Judd would lose hers.

5:26 AM  
Blogger Ali said...

The Globes are always a bit unpredictable with the comedy category and always throw in some WTF choices. In the past few years, we've had surprises like Sarah Jessica Parker's nod for The Family Stone, Goldie Hawn for The Banger Sisters and Ashley Judd for De-Lovely, so I always make room for GG's obsession with celebrity.

11:53 AM  
Blogger adam k. said...

Well I figured they had the mainstream/celebrity angle covered with Beyoncé and Cruz. But I would not be surprised to see Hathaway or ScarJo pop up. I just figured none of the others could miss.

I was under the impression that Volver was more of a comedy, but I could be wrong. If I am, I do think Hathaway or ScarJo will place. Not sure who else is viable this year as a "mainstream" choice. Streep and the Dreamgirls are already pretty mainstream if you think about it.

1:08 PM  
Blogger JavierAG said...

Sophia Loren, Anouk Aimée and Liv Ullmann all won Best Actress - Drama Globes in 1961, 66 and 72 respectively; they're more open to this kind of thing than Oscar, even, and I'd go as far as saying Cruz can win that Drama award if it wasn't maybe for Helen Mirren (Winslet shouldn't be *that* big of an issue). Hell, if "Volver" scores a Best Picture nomination, we might even be looking at a Best Actress winner. (And yes, it's that iconic a performance).

8:09 PM  
Blogger adam k. said...

So, Javier, do you think Volver will be classified as a "comedy"?

Anf for that matter, I've heard a lot of critics calling The Queen a comedy, though I think that will stay in drama.

9:00 PM  
Blogger Ali said...

Adam, I guess what I meant is that they seem to include actresses in non-"awardy" movies.

And I can't see The Queen being campaigned in comedy at all - the trailer is definitely not edited that way.

As for Cruz being in comedy or drama, it's definitely a fine line (like with Allen last year with The Upside of Anger.) Still, I'd say her best chances are in in the former category.

And Javier, I'm sad to say that Cruz has absolutely no chance of winning an Oscar this year (although I agree that she's given the best perf this year so far.) With three "owed" candidates in the running, it's virutally impossible. The nod would be the honour in this case.

11:33 PM  
Blogger Kamikaze Camel said...

But if there's multiple people who are "due" then there's the possibility of vote-splitting.

The Queen, I think, is definitely a drama just with some chucklesome moments. It ain't gettin anywhere near the Musical/Comedy race.

Mirren could very easily be a non-factor at the Globes in the movie area because she will almost certainly take out the globe for Elizabeth I. Or will they give her the Globes for both Elizabeth I and The Queen, which would be funny (Elizabeth I and II).

But, really, whether Volver goes Comedy or Drama is something that we won't know until we get a firmer idea of the race. Winslet, Bening or Beyonce could easily all fall out of contention at some point leaving more room in one category than the other. Who knows.

And let's not forget Sienna Miller in the Drama category. I am serious.

6:15 AM  
Blogger Kamikaze Camel said...

Oh, you know what movie nobody is mentioning, but which could easily steal a Musical/Comedy spot if it's any good?

Lest we forget that the blonde American in that movie already has four (FOUR!) nominations from the HFPA so they clearly like her.

6:23 AM  
Blogger adam k. said...

The thing that puts me off of Sienna Miller is her relative lack of fame. She's definitely not a pre-oscar Theron or Berry-level starlet. But it's certainly possible.

And you're right about The Holiday. I'd forgotten about it. I personally think Nancy Meyers is overrated, but people seem to really like her films, and they always do well in globe acting races. Any of the four stars could get nods.

And actually, it's quite possible that Winslet could get nommed in both comedy and drama, and then the HFPA might give her the drama award for Little Children and Mirren the TV award for Elizabeth I. Depends how big The Holiday actually becomes... the comedy actress category is crowded.

2:30 PM  
Blogger JavierAG said...

I don't know, Ali... It doesn't look like Bening will win the Oscar for "Running with Scissors", or Winslet for "Little Children" either (movie too small and weird; performance potentially unconventional), so if anyone can destroy Mirren, I say and maintain it will be Cruz (unless Blanchett or, God forbid, Knowles make a splash).

10:46 PM  
Blogger adam k. said...

Blanchett is a threat for the win according to some. I'd say her chances are rather slim, though, just because she's won in supporting so recently.

I wouldn't count out Winslet or Bening yet; as long as they're nommed, they are threats. But if their films really fail to ignite, I think the one who could pose the most challenge to Mirren is La Streep.

We already know her film was a big hit, and she could have a very possible globe and/or SAG win to boost her momentum. And this would be her 10th. loss. in a row. I KNOW people are starting to feel bad. She already has the record for most total losses and most consecutive losses. Will they really want to make it 10? She will get a lot of votes simply out of guilt.

And really, Cruz getting nommed would be quite the coup in itself. I'll believe it when I see it. But if she does somehow win the oscar, props to you, Javier.

12:43 AM  

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