Saturday, October 21, 2006

Oscar charts: Best Picture

THE FIVE (4/5=80%)
1) Letters From Iwo Jima (+5)
2) The Departed (-1)
3) The Queen (=)
4) Babel (=)
5) Little Miss Sunshine (=)

UPDATE (1/23): WOW. Dreamgirls is GONE. Letters, on the other hand, shoots straight to #1. I have no idea what'll actually end up winning, but something tells me the surprise nominee could become the surprise winner. What a crazy year.

UPDATE (1/20): Suddenly, best picture seems sewn up. Little MIss Sunshine leaps into lock status, and Babel moves up a slot with its globe win. Those two and the three above them will be the nominees. The only real threats are Letters (strangely shut out of all the guild noms) and United, though either would register as a shock.

UPDATE (1/5): Not much has changed in this race. Babel has done well with the globes and the guilds, so it retains its hold on the 5th spot. But Little Miss Sunshine has also been doing better lately, so it could still swoop in, as could United if voters are listening to the critics. Actually, one of them could also take Letters' spot, since it has not done as well with the guilds so far... but I doubt it. Eastwood worship will pull it through.

UPDATE (12/16): Much clearing up here after critics' awards and globe noms. Babel was starting to look iffy for a while, but it's frontrunner status at the globes helps it hold its place at #5. Dreamgirls also has lost its frontrunner status, but it's still looking good for a nom. The Queen holds steady at #3 on the chart, while Letters vaults into #4. Sunshine, United, and Flags are nipping at the heels of the frontrunners - all are possible, but have big disadvantages and did poorly with globe voters - while surprise globe nominees Children and Bobby fill out the top ten.

UDPATE (12/3): No change in the top six, but lots of changes below. The satellites gave boosts to all my predicted best pic nominees, and also to Little Children (which I'm predicting to take the NBR as well). Flags is also still alive, apparently, though the Flags/Letters double dip could be rewarded any number of ways. We'll see what happens with the globes...

UPDATE (11/19): So I have dropped Volver. Sad. I'm not feeling great about Babel either, but it stays in for now. Little Miss Sunshine makes a leap into the top five for now, Happyness enters at #8, and Letters enters at #13 with its new qualifying run. And, much as it pains me to do it, I've ousted Little Children altogether... but it could be back. We'll see.

UPDATE (11/1): I just got to thinking that since I'm now predicting Luke for a best actor nod, his film should at least be on the chart (it's gotten good reaction at screenings). So here it sits at #13, knocking off the O'Toole vehicle Venus.

Also, I've come to my senses and put The Queen in the top five. It replaced FooF, which has been dying at the box office. Babel has also slipped a bit to fourth, as its reviews have been somewhat mixed.

FIRST THOUGHTS: I honestly believe #1-#4 will be nominated, at least for now. #5 is more wishful thinking. I suppose The Queen or Bobby is more likely to take that spot, but something always surprises, and I think Volver might really cross over.

Little Miss Sunshine probably has little chance at the big show, but is already a bona fide success and will at least have globe love and actor love, so it'll stay in the mix all season. The two "good" films are still total wild cards, but at this point, I don't see them overthrowing the films above them.

Little Children only has a chance if the critics really rally behind it, but with things like Babel, The Departed and United 93 in the mix, critics' awards are likely to be split. And Venus I don't really see getting anywhere other than Best Actor and maybe a screenplay nod, but if they decide they REALLY love O'Toole this year, then you never know (think Scent of a Woman)... so I thought it deserved a place on the chart.

Thoughts? (more charts to come in a bit)


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