Friday, October 20, 2006

Thoughts on the weekend box office

Interesting 3-way race this weekend at the box office:

Prestige vs Flags vs Departed

Probably Prestige will come out on top, powered by the combined force of Bale/Jackman/Johannson/Nolan and what turned out to be pretty good reviews. But Eastwood's Flags is also opening this weekend, and that can't be counted out as a major player. AND I also wouldn't be shocked to see The Departed reclaim the #1 spot in its third week, if the other films perform below expectations. Its starpower and hype is great, and it will surely hold up well in the ensuing weeks. I expect it to finish up in the $120+ range... plus lots of DVD $, and possibly a rerelease for awards season.

I suppose my brain is saying:

1) The Prestige
2) Flags Of Our Fathers
3) The Departed

...albeit with very very close totals.

But something's telling me it won't actually pan out that way. I think Flags may have trouble attracting audiences outside the older male crowd, at least at first, whereas The Prestige and The Departed seem to have potential for wide fanbases (including women and gay men who love Bale, Jackman, DiCaprio, Damon, et al).

I say The Prestige ekes out a narrow victory, and The Departed comes in second again.

UPDATE: I forgot that Marie Antoinette is also opening this weekend (though it's not opening in my city, strangely). So it will probably come in second, over The Departed. But maybe not...

SECOND UPDATE: It appears Marie Antoinette is only in limited release. That makes sense. According to Friday estimates, my original hunch about The Prestige and The Departed going 1 and 2 was right, but The Departed is actually in more theaters than either of its two main rivals. Its per theater average was the lowest of the three (unsurprisingly).

We'll see how the rest of the weekend goes.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

Don't forget about Marie Antoinette! That movie's ad campaign is freakin spectacular.

I think it'll be:

1. The Prestige
2. Marie Antoinette
3. The Departed
4. Flags Of Our Fathers

I think that FINALLY people have begun to tire of the WWII movies. And to the average American with no pre-conceived notions about Oscar buzz and the like, I'm sure Flags just looks like the run-of-the-mill war movie that we've all seen a hundred times before.

12:08 AM  
Blogger adam k. said...

Whoa, I'm not even done tinkering with the post, and already someone is commenting.

Is Marie Antoinette already opening wide this weekend? Crap. I didn't see it in my local listings. If so, I'll have to to change this whole post.

12:19 AM  

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