Tuesday, June 19, 2007

Random analysis of the day:
GG Best Actress (Comedy/Musical)

For some reason, today I feel like working out who the potential Golden Globe best actress nominees might be (in the comedy/musical race, at least... drama always has way too many candidates at this point). Let's brainstorm:

One likely nominee is Keri Russell in Waitress, a film I just saw this evening. She's very endearing in the role, though I wouldn't say brilliant; other actresses could've played this part, maybe better, though she does just fine, for the most part. Both the performance and the film have been getting very strong reviews, and honoring her would seem a logical way to reward the film as a whole. I don't see it getting a best picture globe nod, but Russell herself seems a good bet. The HFPA does like her, after all (remember her shocking globe win for Felicity?).

Another very likely candidate, sight unseen, is Helena Bonham-Carter for Sweeney Todd. This is the kind of role I'd expect to see here in the lead category, even if it gets demoted to supporting for the oscars, unless her part is cut down significantly from the Mrs. Lovett of the stage version. And even if the film goes over badly, she and Depp can probably expect globe attention... Bonham-Carter especially, since she's a proven musical talent, and would be highly unlikely to totally bomb in her role... even if Meryl Streep, Imelda Staunton, Toni Collette or whoever might've done better.

A third actress I'd be surprised to see left off is Marion Cotillard of La Vie En Rose. An oscar nod will be tricky, but a nomination here seems all sewn up. The film is already doing well critically and commercially, despite some people's negative reactions, so it's hard to imagine her missing here. She could even win it. Respected biopic about a famous singer, with an actress getting rave reviews? We know this category loves that.

And finally, I expect Laura Linney to place here, too, for The Savages. There's always one nominee in this category who's in a film that's really neither a musical nor a comedy, and Linney fits that bill this year. Critically lauded indie dramedies do well here, and this film looks funny enough to call itself a "comedy." The big question is whether it actually will. I'm betting: yes. But if it doesn't, Linney could probably muscle her way into the race over in the drama field, too. We'll see.

Anyway, if I had to put these four in order of likeliness, I'd probably list them like this:
1) Cotillard
2) Bonham-Carter
3) Linney
4) Russell
5) ???

...but it's hard to see any of them not placing. The question is where that 5th spot will go. And right now, it could go pretty much anywhere.

Hairspray has an apparently VERY lovable female lead in newbie Nikki Bronsky, and also a second possible nominee in Michelle Pfeiffer, if her role is large enough. Speaking of Michelle Pfeiffer, she's got another summer comedy vehicle, I Could Never Be Your Woman, in which she's most definitely the lead. Other possibilites include heavyweights Nicole Kidman (whose title role in Margot at the Wedding could earn her some attention) and Susan Sarandon (also sporting a title role in the upcoming Bernard and Doris). And if Knocked Up continues to slay 'em at the box office, you can't count out its star Katherine Heigl. And finally, if the globe voters really, REALLY like Once, then it's not impossible that young Markéta Irglová might land a spot (though that one's probably wishful thinking).

That's everyone I can think of right now. Am I forgetting anyone? There are surely more names that'll pop up at the end of the year... but there's plenty of competition already. As it is, at least five of the ten women above will wake up empty-handed on nomination day. Which five (or more)? It's anyone's guess.


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