Monday, November 19, 2007

GOLDEN GLOBE SPOTLIGHT:Best Actress (Musical/Comedy)

Time to spotlight the ladies of the musical/comedy category. Y'all know I love this category. And this year, it's wicked strong. I'd say all 8 of these women are EXTREMELY possible:

AMY ADAMS (Enchanted)

In her corner: Momentum and goodwill from Junebug a couple years back. And a possible big hit on her hands... could fill the requisite "mainstream" slot. Word is, she brings unexpected depth to her ditzy Disney princess role. And she sings, too.

But... the globes didn't nominate her for Junebug. Maybe they don't much like her? Also, her film is lightweight... and might not be as big a hit as it wants. Though early word is good, box office and critical reaction are still unclear.

NIKKI BLONSKY (Hairspray)

In her corner: Headlined a well-reviewed hit film... could fill the requisite "mainstream" slot. Both she and the film itself are easy to love. Her role is both comedic AND musical... a definite plus. And voters may want to reward her for a role she seemed born to play (and is unlikely to top).

But... the film is more of an ensemble piece. She's the lead, but just barely so... she's surrounded by much more famous co-stars. Plus, there's strong competition this year on both the "musical" and "mainstream" fronts.

HELENA BONHAM-CARTER (Sweeney Todd)

In her corner: Legendary role. If the film goes over well at all, she'll be in (and could easily win). She seems well cast, too, nepotism or no.

But... will the film go over well at all? No one knows. And even if it does, she might be overshadowed by Depp, who is the focus of the buzz. And if her role's been trimmed as much as people claim, she could end up in supporting. And how is her singing?

KATHERINE HEIGL (Knocked Up)

In her corner: She's got the title role (of sorts) in the biggest hit in the mix. She's also very hot right now in general, fresh off an Emmy win for Grey's Anatomy. If they really want mainstream, she's it.

But... she might be too mainstream (no chance of an oscar nom). That's usually not a problem in this category, but in this highly competitive year, it might be. And though her perf is good, her role is kinda generic (could have been played by anyone).

NICOLE KIDMAN
(Margot at the Wedding)

In her corner: She's Nicole Kidman, the HFPA's favorite actress. They nominate her even for difficult films (i.e. Birth). And she's getting Birth-level acclaim for her work in Margot.

But... the film as a whole is not so well-liked; reviews have been mixed at best. Plus, Nic's character is quite hateable. And though that usually doesn't deter the HFPA, in such a competitive year... it might.


LAURA LINNEY (The Savages)

In her corner: Strong performance in a prestige film. Dramedies do well in this category. Linney the actress is respected and overdue.

But... Linney the celebrity is less exciting. And this is the golden globe comedy category, not the oscars. Might this star and perf be too low-key for their tastes? She and Kidman are vying for the "talky indie" spot... and we know which of those two they like more. Maybe she should try for drama?

ELLEN PAGE (Juno)

In her corner: Her film is getting great buzz, as is her performance in the title role. Many are claiming she's a lock for an oscar nod, in which case she'd be more than lock here. She also has momentum from her acclaimed perf in last year's Hard Candy. And the globes have no problem with youth: note the love for Claire Danes, Keri Russell, Evan Rachel Wood, etc.

But... it's still all just buzz. Her film has yet to be released and reviewed. Will she (and it) live up to the hype?

KERI RUSSELL (Waitress)

In her corner: She's a former winner (for TV's Felicity), so we know they like her. And she now stars in a sweet little film that a lot of people like, in a role completely different from the one she won for. She and the film are easy (for most) to love.

But... they also have vocal (and loud) detractors. The film seems too sweet to be "divisive" and yet it is. Plus, it was released a long time ago. With no real pressure to honor her, might they just forget about it and look to other, fresher ladies?

That's 8 very strong contenders... and I'm not even counting the possible-but-not-very-likely people like Markéta Irglová (Once), the would-be-a-good-bet-if-their-films-were-ever-released people like Michelle Pfeiffer (I Could Never Be Your Woman), and the probably-too-good-for-this-category people like Marion Cotillard (La Vie En Rose). Counting NONE of those, there are still these 8 that I'd say would be locks in a lesser year.

In fact, I'd call several of them locks anyway, except that there are only 5 spots, which means 3 of them will have to be left out. Which 5 do you think will make it? Which 5 would you like to make it? Which, if any, women not listed here do you think have a shot? Discuss in the comments (please).

p.s. For the record, if you put a gun to my head, I guess I'd say the list would consist of Adams, Blonsky, Bonham-Carter, Linney and Page. BUT what I really think will happen is either Linney will go drama or HBC will go supporting, AND there'll be 6 nominees. Something's gotta give, and soon. Oh, and I think the win is headed to either Amy Adams, Ellen Page or Helena Bonham-Carter... unless Cotillard ends up competing here.

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7 Comments:

Blogger J.D. said...

Junebug, for all (her) acclaim, was a very, very independent film. They don't like those a lot of times. Hell, all LMS got was Picture and Collette (wrong category, btw)!

Enchanted, on the other hand, is big budget, exiting, and BUZZZZZZZZed. She's hella likely.

1:48 PM  
Blogger adam k. said...

I agree. I'm just showing every angle. ; )

Was this a good post? It took a hell of a long time to do.

(fishing for compliments)

1:54 PM  
Blogger DL said...

Yes, it was a very good post. :)

And if I had the choice, I would put Amy Adams, Nikki Blonsky, Nicole Kidman, Laura Linney and Ellen Page in the shortlist. Mind you, I've only seen Blonsky, Heigl and Russell but I wasn't exactly impressed with the latter 2.

Thinking rationally though, I expect Adams, Blonsky, Bonham-Carter, Linney and Page to get in.

5:23 PM  
Blogger adam k. said...

Thanks!

I also am leaning away from Heigl and Russell, because

a) they just weren't as good
b) they don't bring much to the table

Meaning, they're not musical, they're not particularly dramatic, they're not particularly loved by the HFPA (well, not like Kidman), and they're not in the race for oscar. So there's just no motive to honor them.

I actually quite liked Heigl in Knocked Up, but she's just not in the same league as Kidman or Linney, and isn't in a musical like Bonham-Carter or Blonsky.

But she WAS in a huge hit, and is in another huge hit on TV. That counts for a lot.

And I wouldn't count out Nicole. If they nommed her for Birth, why not for this? I think she'll find her way in somehow.

6:05 PM  
Anonymous Ryan said...

Awsome predictions! I fucking LOVE the Golden Globes. Hmmmm. Now, here’s some competition!

1. LINNEY- the one to beat? If she goes “drama” the race for the win here will become fascinating.
2. HEIGL- She has this nod (deservingly) all sewn up.
3. PAGE- Probably. But again, you’re dead on. So far it’s JUST buzz.
4. KIDMAN- She’s so in and you’re so right; the HFPA worships her- as do I.
5. BLONSKY- Seems likely but they did snub Breslin last year.

RUSSELL- For now I’m saying no but I have this nasty hunch she may pop up.
CARTER- If the Globes see her as lead she could make it.
ADAMS- possible- your right about the BO prospects

1:47 AM  
Blogger adam k. said...

I'm not so sure about Heigl. In another year, sure, but there's just too much competition this year.

I'm a little worried about Page's character being too sardonic and maybe not playing as well outside of festivals. Kind of a Thora Birth in Ghost World kinda thing. But that should hurt for more at the oscars than here.

I also have this strange feeling that Russell will make it. Logic says she shouldn't over the others, but I just have a feeling she will. And it won't be pretty.

I don't think Linney will win the globe. She's just not their kinda gal. She'll become competitive for the oscar win (if nominated), but I just don't see this as a winning perf. Not flashy, not edgy, not musical, not globe-y. Not a winner.

And Carter, I think, just needs a category. Whichever one she's placed in, she should place there.

1:57 AM  
Blogger Kamikaze Camel said...

Well they nominated Linney for The Squid and the Whale an equally indie dramady so I reckon she is in. And they really like TS&TW so I think Kidman will also get in for Margot.

On the Ellen Page/Thora Birch comparison... er, Thora Birch got a Globes nomination. I reckon she's in.

The problem for Blonsky is that she is unknown and doesn't have as good a story as Jennifer Hudson. I don't think she's in. And Heigl, as you say, is just a bit out of her depth with the women that surround her in this category. I don't reckon she'll be nommed but she will win in the television category.

As for Adams, Russell and Carter. Well, I reckon Adams will get in for sure, I've had a hunch about Russell for ages and if Carter is lead then I think she will too, making it a six-nomination category with Kidman, Page, Carter, Russell, Adams and Linney. Although if I were to make it five I'd elimate Russell probably.

2:36 AM  

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