Thursday, November 15, 2007

I'm starting to feel like Depp will win the oscar.

All he has to do is pull off the singing. And by most accounts, he does. If the response is positive at all, he'll have the golden globe in the bag - only Gosling seems to have any chance to beat him - especially since he has a likely double nom coming (they've nommed him for his last two Jack Sparrows, and last year's Leo love-fest proves they aren't opposed to double-dipping for stars). And the media will be all over him. All these things will make it hard for the academy not to notice come nomination time.

And as far as the actual oscar WIN... Daniel Day-Lewis is his only real competition. And he's already won. And his film might be a little too "out there" for universal love (Sweeney might, too, of course, but with both films out there in bizarro world, the "due" factor should decide it). Sweeney Todd just seems like the perfect role to do it for Depp, i.e. it builds on his established strengths and plays into his persona (from the clips, Sweeney Todd = Edward Scissorhands + Jack Sparrow) while also stretching him considerably (the singing).

Of course, it MIGHT just totally fail, or be seen as too cartoonish, too much of a retread, etc. But with Sondheim and a lot of others reportedly very happy with the film, I think Johnny'll be hard to deny.

Thoughts on this?

p.s. Oscar predictions are updated. Scroll down the sidebar to find them.



Blogger Rural Juror said...

Honestly, I don't think he has a chance in hell. I dont='t understand why suddenly everyone thinks a Tim Burton movie is gonna sweep the Oscars. I doubt it will get nodded for BP or director, and I wouldn't call an nod for Johnny Depp a sure thing.

I'd say, Day Lewis or McAvoy

10:39 PM  
Blogger adam k. said...

I basically agree with everything you said.

I don't think Sweeney's gonna sweep the oscars at all. Only Tom O'Neill thinks that. And Tom O'Neill is crazy. But I DO think Depp has a good chance, particularly now that Tommy Lee Jones is in danger from Elah flopping. I don't think he's a sure thing either - we'll know nothing until the film hits theaters - but I think if he's nominated, he wins. I think all the attention on the film will be on him, and it'll either be a big hit or a big miss.

I'm just starting to feel like "hit" is more probable.

11:03 PM  
Anonymous Alison Flynn said...

I disagree with you. Depp is not a clear win because he sings. Nicole Kidman sang in Moulin Rouge and didn't win, though she was nominated. The singing means nothing, unless the Academy Awards are becoming the Grammys. There are plenty of actors who have sung in movies (and better). Although I haven't seen the full movie I've heard the clips. His singing is okay, but he has a lot of trouble (to be fair, I'm a professional singer and I probably hear things that the average movie-goer won't). Will this work on film? Probably, especially since he's a great actor. He will make it work with his acting and characterization.

You also bring up the point that Sweeney Todd just seems like the perfect role to do it for Depp, i.e. it builds on his established strengths and plays into his persona (from the clips, Sweeney Todd = Edward Scissorhands + Jack Sparrow). This is exactly what may kill it for him if that's the case. He's not stretching himself if his character has shadows of previous roles and critics will point it right out. The Academy does like to see actors stretch themselves, but that means playing against type or playing a character that's different from anything they've done, not singing. It's for this reason that Depp was nominated for Pirates and for Finding Neverland - two characters and two film genres that were so completely different from anything he'd done before. And he was only nominated for the first Pirates movie, not the second one, just to clarify.

As for Day-Lewis, just because he's already won an Oscar doesn't mean they won't give him another one if his performance is worthy. There are plenty of two-time Oscar winners and the Academy doesn't deny someone because they've already won.

I could be wrong, but I think Depp will get a nomination even though others are in doubt, especially if his acting is as terrific in the film as everyone is saying. However, I don't think he can be declared a clear win yet. There are still films and performances that are yet to be seen. James McAvoy, Daniel Day-Lewis - these are actors who have not been seen by all the critics yet (or if they have few reviews have been released). John Cusack has a movie coming out and he's being talked about as a possiblity. Charlie Wilson's War hasn't come out (although, granted, I like many think it will be this year's Dreamgirls). And I wouldn't count out Tommy Lee Jones just yet. It's unlikely that he'll get a nomination due to the film's box office failure. But he's gotten rave reviews from top critics and despite the film's less-than-spectacular box office draw the Academy may still acknowledge Jones's performance. It's still early for anyone to really be a clear win yet. In December, after these films have been seen by the critics and start getting released properly to the public, then a more clear winner may emerge.

12:22 AM  
Blogger Kamikaze Camel said...

I don't have anything to say about Depp - it's truly a performance I won't wanna say anything about until it is released and we start to hear what pros are saying - but by February 2008 it will be 18 years since Daniel Day Lewis won his Oscar. And you just know he was second to Brody in 2002 for his Gangs of New York performance.

2:07 AM  

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