NBR actuals (with my predictions)

BEST PICTURE
my prediction: Atonement (Focus Features)
my alternate: No Country for Old Men
winner: No Country for Old Men

My alternate won this award, along with a few others, giving it a big big boost in the awards season. Expect No Country to garner oscar nods across the board.

BEST DIRECTOR
my prediction: David Fincher (Zodiac)
my alternate: The Coen Bros (No Country)
winner: Tim Burton (Sweeney Todd)

This makes sense; he was not far down my list of possibilities. I was just going for the "random" factor when I chose Fincher. But still, the NBR's choice in this category doesn't usually correlate with oscar (the last two years notwithstanding). So I'm not holding my breath for Burton (though this certainly doesn't hurt).

BEST ACTOR
my prediction: Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd)
my alternate: Daniel Day-Lewis (TWWB)
winner: George Clooney (Michael Clayton)

I am happy about this. I really liked Clooney in this film, and this win puts him in a good position for a nod... especially since most of the other awards will likely be won be already-locked-in Day-Lewis (and perhaps Mortensen). And Sweeney got its own boost in the director category (and will surely be big at the globes), so Depp is in fine shape, too.

BEST ACTRESS
my prediction: Julie Christie (Away From Her)
my alternate: Laura Linney (Savages and Jindabyne)
winner: Julie Christie

Yeah I nailed this one right on the head, thanks. I've had a feeling for a long time that this would be Christie's first big award. It just seemed right. In this category, the NBR usually goes for someone pretty famous who gave a beloved turn, but isn't quite certain for attention, for whatever reason (at least until her coronation here). So there you go. Expect her to cop the globe without much trouble, too. And the oscar after that? Maybe.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
my prediction: Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men)
my alternate: Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton)
winner: Casey Affleck (Jesse James)

Well, I figured they'd probably honor him somewhere, just not here. I thought instead that this would be the beginning of a Bardem steamroller... but they found plenty of other places to honor No Country. Anyway, last time the NBR went to bat for a case of category fraud here (Jake Gyllenhaal), their winner went on to get nominated. So expect that to happen again.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
my prediction: Cate Blanchett (I'm Not There)
my alternate: Michelle Pfeiffer (Hairspray and Stardust)
winner: Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone)

OK, here's the thing: I don't think Amy Ryan will get nommed. Simply because the NBR's oscar record here is quite spotty. They often go for someone who looks very on-the-fence, as it were, and then stays on the fence for the rest of the season, and gets snubbed. But then, this category's pretty weak, so maybe she'll make it. Hard to say.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
my prediction: Diablo Cody (Juno)
my alternate: Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton)
winners: Diablo Cody (Juno) and Nancy Oliver (Lars and the Real Girl)

Yay! A tie! And I'm happy Lars is now in contention here, though I still don't think it'll get nommed. And yay also for my being right about the other winner.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
my prediction: Paul Thomas Anderson (TWBB)
my alternate: Christopher Hampton (Atonement)
winner: The Coens for No Country for Old Men

Well, I figured they'd honor the Coens (and boy did they), just not here. Oh well. I am a bit surprised Atonement didn't win here, especially since No Country won elsewhere, too. Weird that there seems to be no "special achievement in filmmaking" honor this year, since it would've been perfect for the Coens, freeing up this win for Atonement or something else. Sigh.

SPECIAL ACHIEVEMENT
my prediction: The Coen Bros (No Country for Old Men)
my alternate: Sarah Polley (Away From Her)
winner: NONE (but the Coens won a lot of other stuff)

ENSEMBLE ACTING
my prediction: the cast of Hairspray
my alternate: the cast of I'm Not There
winner: the cast of No Country for Old Men

Another award for No Country. They had a big night.

DIRECTORIAL DEBUT
my prediction: Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton)
my alternate: Ben Affleck (Gone Baby Gone)
winner: Ben Affleck

Sigh. They went with the celebrity. Whatever.

BREAKTHROUGH ACTOR
my prediction: Emile Hirsch (Into the Wild)
my alternate: Casey Affleck (Gone Baby Gone and Jesse James)
winner: Emile Hirsch

Got it. And my alternate was honored elsewhere. Yeehaw!

BREAKTHROUGH ACTRESS
my prediction: Ellen Page (Juno)
my alternate: Nikki Blonsky (Hairspray)
winner: Ellen Page

Got this one, too. But it was easy. Does this lock her in for a nod? I'd say no, though it certainly helps.

TOP TEN
my predictions:
1. Atonement (got it! though it didn't win)
2. No Country for Old Men (their winner)
3. There Will Be Blood
4. Into the Wild
5. Michael Clayton
6. Charlie Wilson's War
7. Zodiac
8. Hairspray
9. I'm Not There
10. Once

the rest of their real top ten:
The Assissination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
The Bourne Ultimatum
The Bucket List (wtf IS this film???)
Juno
The Kite Runner
Lars and the Real Girl
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

OK, can I just say, I miss the days when the NBR did a whole ranked top ten. It was more fun to predict. But I guess those days are over now. Also, it looks like they now choose ten in addition to their big winner, which I think is new. Anyway. I didn't do too well with the top ten (though I did have their winner at #2). It always flummoxes me how some independent films qualify for this list, while others are ghettoized into "best independent films." It's kind of like how some foreign films or debuts are allowed into best feature at the Spirit Awards, while others have to settle for "best foreign film" or "best first feature." Whatever. It all just goes to show you just how pointless this whole thing is.

But anyway, who does this help? Obviously No Country for Old Men had a great day, and is looking very good for all kinds of nods. Juno didn't do too shabbily either. Michael Clayton, Jesse James and Sweeney Todd also did quite well (and needed to). Gone Baby Gone also got a bit of a boost, but it remains to be seen whether it'll figure into the oscar race. Ditto Lars and the Real Girl, but I still don't think it'll be nominated anywhere (though this should help Ryan Gosling's chances at the globes). Atonement I think is holding steady, and didn't need any additional help. If it'd been past over for the top ten list, it might be in trouble, but it wasn't, so it's fine.

And who got hurt? Well, ALL the non-Sweeney Todd musicals (Hairspray, I'm Not There, Once, Enchanted, Across the Universe) could've used some help here. Oh well. There Will Be Blood also was conspicuously absent from the whole announcement, and that can't be good. American Gangster was snubbed, too, but I predicted that. In conclusion:

BIGGEST WINNER: No Country for Old Men
BIGGEST LOSERS: There Will Be Blood, American Gangster
HOLDING STEADY: Atonement
COULD BE ON THE VERGE OF A MAJOR SURGE: Sweeney Todd
(assuming the globes follow suit)

Thoughts on this?