NSFC predictions and winners

BEST PICTURE
My prediction: WALL•E
My alternate: The Wrestler
Could it happen? The Class
Actual winner: Waltz with Bashir

Well, I got the animated part right... but wow.


BEST DIRECTOR
My prediction: Mike Leigh, Happy-Go-Lucky
My alternate: Andrew Stanton, WALL•E
Or will they go with Boyle again?
Actual Winner: Mike Leigh

Yay for me! Is he in contention for an oscar nod? He sure has done well with the critics. No one else really has a claim on the "lone director" spot. So I think if it's not him, the directors will most likely match the best pic nominees.


BEST ACTOR
My prediction: Mickey Rourke
My alternate: Sean Penn
Or maybe... Richard Jenkins?
Actual winner: Sean Penn

Well, I was close. I assumed they'd love The Wrestler a little bit more than they did. But I guess the critics are really getting behind Sean Penn for the win. And why shouldn't they? He'll need to really seem like a sweeper to scoop up oscar #2.


BEST ACTRESS
My prediction: Sally Hawkins
My alternate: Anne Hathaway
Can she win one? Kristin Scott-Thomas
Actual winner: Sally Hawkins

This was fairly easy, I think. They usually go for someone who hasn't yet gotten the critical attention they deserve, but in this case, the established critical favorite STILL hasn't locked up as a nominee, so they're giving her one final push. Good.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
My prediction: Heath Ledger
My alternate: Bill Irwin
Or maybe... one of the Milk guys?
Actual winner: Eddie Marsan, Happy-Go-Lucky

D'oh! Deep down, I kinda knew they'd go with someone other than Ledger. But for some reason, I forgot all about Eddie Marsan. He and Bill Irwin are sharing the annual "why can't they get traction?" slot. And he did seem like the type who they'd prop up. What was I thinking? Oops.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
My prediction: Marisa Tomei
My alternate: Penelope Cruz
Will they throw her a bone? Rosemarie DeWitt
Actual winner: Hanna Schygulla, The Edge of Heaven

WAAAY outta left field... but that's to be expected with this group. And yay for me for having actually seen this movie! I didn't care for it as much as most people did, but Hanna Schygulla was very good. And bold choices are always fun.

BEST SCREENPLAY
My prediction: Rachel Getting Married
My alternate: Happy-Go-Lucky
Could it score here? The Class
Actual winner: Happy-Go-Lucky


Well, I knew they'd like Happy-Go-Lucky. Just didn't know it would be to THIS extent. I thought for sure Rachel Getting Married would score with this group somewhere, and this seemed like the most likely place. But alas, they really REALLY love Mike Leigh. So there you go.

BEST DOCUMENTARY
My prediction: Trouble the Water (kill the Man on Wire sweep!)
My alternate: Man on Wire
Actual Winner: Man on Wire

Boring.

Well, anyway... looking at the balloting scores, WALL•E actually tied for 2nd (with Happy-Go-Lucky) in best picture, so I wasn't that far off. Rourke and Ledger were also 2nd in their categories. And Viola Davis was actually numerically tied with Schygulla in supporting actress, but since she was on fewer ballots, she lost the tiebreaker (Cruz was in 3rd).

This has gotta be disappointing for Rachel Getting Married and The Wrestler, neither of which got anywhere with this group. I thought one or both of them would get a lot of love here. But you never can tell. Always an interesting group, that NSFC.