Thursday, December 18, 2008

SAG nominations!

Quick thoughts: Doubt did extremely well, like I thought. 5 nominations, including both supporting actress nods, as well as ensemble. This has to boost its best picture profile, though I still doubt it'll make the cut in that race. Frost/Nixon managed an ensemble nod despite its being basically a duet, so that indicates it has huge best picture support. And Slumdog made the ensemble cut even though it has no stars and is not really an actors' piece, so it of course is locked in for best picture as well. Milk bounced back with nods for the ensemble and for Josh Brolin, though Franco missed, and is sadly out of the race for oscar : ( The last nominee was Benjamin Button, which solidified its own nomination for best pic as well. Ensemble list:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (3 noms)
Doubt (5 noms)
Frost/Nixon (2 noms)
Milk (3 noms)
Slumdog Millionaire (2 noms)

No out-of-nowhere choices this year, but still some major snubs. Big "ouch" for Revolutionary Road. Beyond Winslet's "Year of Kate" citation, it failed to get traction. Rachel Getting Married, as I feared, went by the wayside as well. Something worthy always does. And finally, The Dark Knight failed to lock in its best pic chances today, which is what would've happened if it'd scored here. In the actors' minds (as in the globes'), it's Heath Ledger's show only. So it's anyone's guess as to whether the academy'll go for it, even if it has the guilds (which it will).

This could be the oscar lineup right here, though The Dark Knight and/or WALL•E still stand poised to replace something here, most likely the nomination leader, Doubt. I went 3/5 in my predictions, thinking Dark Knight and Rachel's ensembles would prove too enticing to ignore. But alas, the buzzy prestige best pic contenders ruled the day.

Best Actor:

Richard Jenkins
Frank Langella
Sean Penn
Brad Pitt
Mickey Rourke

Alright then. Penn, Rourke and Langella are still locks. But the surprise here is really Brad Pitt. The actors clearly loved Benjamin Button (the film and the character) more than expected. And consensus this season, surprisingly, seems to be that Brad > Leo. Maybe people are finally getting behind Brad with this prestige performance, thinking it's his time. And they'd be right. Jenkins makes his play here for the final oscar spot, and he could easily get it. And YAY for Clint Eastwood being snubbed again! Does this knock him down to 7th position? Is this the oscar list? Is Leo out? Is Brad in? Could both Leo and Brad get in? I think that's possible... we'll see. I went 4/5 in my predictions, like everyone else, missing Brad for Leo.

Best Actress:

Anne Hathaway
Angelina Jolie
Melissa Leo
Meryl Streep
Kate Winslet

Interesting. My Leo (Melissa, that is) hunch was correct. But it came at the expense of someone unexpected: Hawkins. This reminds me of last year's Linney-for-Jolie switch at oscar time. It's hard to believe Hawkins is out of the oscar race, having nearly swept the critics' awards, but who does she replace? Not Streep. Not Hathaway. Not Winslet. She could bump Leo even after Leo overtook her here. OR (more likely, I think), she could bump Jolie, who I just don't think will get #1 votes on ballots to make the oscar shortlist. OR, horror of horrors, Hawkins could miss. She has missed both the BFCA list and the SAG list, only making the cut at the globes in the comedy category. That does not bode well. So continue to rally, critics. Apparently she needs it. Ftr, I scored 4/5 here, missing Jolie for Hawkins, though I think my lineup could still be the one we see from oscar.

Best Supporting Actor:

Josh Brolin
Robert Downey, Jr.
Philip Seymour Hoffman
Heath Ledger
Dev Patel

EWWW, Dev Patel. Can't they at least reserve category fraud for truly exceptional performances? You can have your Gyllenhaal in Brokeback and Winslet in Reader, but Dev Patel? Really? Sigh. This puts him right back in contention for the oscar nod, surging him right ahead of James Franco (sigh). Though this reminds me a lot of the Keisha Castle-Hughes citation here that ultimately led to a lead nod from the academy. No other groups have really been buying the fraud on this one, and SAG probably only did it because they're only allowed to vote for people in the category they're gunning for. Hopefully Dev's votes will split at oscar time, and he'll be left out. But then, who would replace him? Neither Franco nor Michael Shannon have been doing particularly well, despite both being in films with big campaigns. And Cruise is not happening. So Dev could easily slip in. In any case, the other four are pretty locked. Ftr, I was 3/5 here... not good for me.

Best Supporting Actress:

Amy Adams
Penélope Cruz
Viola Davis
Taraji P. Henson
Kate Winslet

Interesting. My last-minute Amy Adams prediction was a good call, but swapping out Taraji Henson was not. Both made it. So my the net effect was nil, giving me a success rate of 4/5. The loser in all of this, of course, was Rosemarie DeWitt (my one bad prediction). Rachel Getting Married has gotten pretty shafted all season (beyond Hathaway), and the eponymous Rachel has been doing no better. So this appears to be a 6-woman race between Adams, Cruz, Davis, Henson, Tomei & Winslet, with DeWitt falling into "longshot spoiler" status. Of those 6, I'd take out Adams first, as I can't imagine her being #1 on many ballots above Viola Davis, but she's done well so far, so I dunno. Tomei or Henson could also miss. We'll see.

For the win, the big question is of course: Where will they give it to Kate?? Or will they at all? SAG has given her a win before (waaaay back in 1995), so they're not under the same pressure to honor her. She's nominated twice this year, but neither of her ensembles are. In fact, she's the only nominee from each of her films. So it seems its not about the films, it's all about her. If Doubt takes ensemble, which I think it will, then they may not need to give best actress to Streep, giving Kate an opening there. But I could also see her upsetting Cruz, who just doesn't seem to me like a SAG winner for some reason. Could Kate win both, with enough people voting for her twice, simply to cover themselves? I don't think it's out of the question. Could she win neither? That's not out of the question either. It'll be very exciting.



Anonymous Anonymous said...

My predictions for victory:

Lead Actor:
Will Win: Sean Penn (He's 4-0, but maybe the fifth is with victory)
Alternative: Mickey Rourke

Lead Actress:
Will Win: Meryl Streep (After "Doubt" love...)
Alternative: Anne Hathaway

Supporting Actor:
Will Win: Heath Ledger
Alternative: Heath Ledger

Supporting Actress:
Will Win: Viola Davis
Alternative: Penelope Cruz or Taraji P. Henson (She's the most nominated actress of the night)

Will Win: Milk
Alternative: Doubt

7:14 PM  

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