Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Golden Globe nominations! (& my prediction success)

I did pretty well on these. Nominees I predicted correctly have an asterisk next to them. Those I'm now predicting to win are in bold. Let's dig in:

Inglorious Basterds*
The Hurt Locker*
Up in the Air*

I scored 4 of 5. But I'm happy to be wrong on Invictus and wrong about the Precious snub. The latter is a very good film, and I'm glad to see it recognized. In fact, this lineup is pretty great in general. I'm still pretty sure Up in the Air will take this, though Best Director is probably headed to Bigelow (or her ex-hubby).

(500) Days of Summer*
A Serious Man
The Hangover
It's Complicated*
Julie & Julia*

4 of 5 again. Dammit. Deep down I knew The Hangover would make it here - after all, it was a giant sleeper hit with good reviews - but I refused to believe it. Nine will still win this award, though it isn't looking nearly as dominant as I thought it would.

Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart)*
George Clooney (Up in the Air)*
Johnny Depp (Public Enemies)
Colin Firth (A Single Man)*
Morgan Freeman (Invictus)*
Tobey Maguire (Brothers)

4 of 5 yet again. So Tobey ended up in the wild card spot. Fair enough. He'll most likely be replaced by Renner at oscar time. I do think Clooney will take this one, with the momentum he has from all the critics' awards plus the fact that the starfucking globes love him. But Bridges will likely take home the SAG and oscar.

Emily Blunt (The Young Victoria)
Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side)*
Abbie Cornish (Bright Star)
Helen Mirren (The Last Station
Carey Mulligan (An Education)*
Saorsie Ronan (The Lovely Bones)
Gabourey Sidibe (Precious)*

Ouch! 3 of 5. I stupidly bet against Mirren, and (like most of the world) didn't see Emily Blunt coming. This probably puts Ronan's oscar hopes to rest... it now looks like Bullock, Mirren, Mulligan, Sidibe and Streep, with Blunt and Cornish looming on the outside. Also: I think Bullock will win this. Mulligan certainly could (as could Sidibe), but An Education didn't register much with them, and if the double nom is any indication, they're itching to reward Sandy.

Matt Damon (The Informant!)*
Daniel Day-Lewis (Nine)*
Robert Downey Jr. (Sherlock Holmes)*
Joseph Gordon-Levitt (500 Days of Summer)*
Michael Stuhlbarg (A Serious Man)*

5 of 5! Nailed it. These really seemed like the right five. I think DDL is winning, but he's not the runaway favorite he would have been if Nine had gotten more love. I don't think Damon or JGL have what it takes, but I could see Downey or Stuhlbarg upsetting (though I haven't seen their films, so I don't know how confident I am in that happening).

Sandra Bullock (The Proposal)*
Marion Cotillard (Nine)*
Zooey Deschanel (500 Days of Summer)
Julia Roberts! (Duplicity)
Meryl Streep (It's Complicated)*
Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia)*

4 of 5. I was definitely on the right track here (double Streep, double Bullock, Cotillard, no Pfeiffer), but I did miss the crazy-out-of-nowhere love for Julia Roberts. Though it's really not that surprising. I do think that, with the Nine love dampened and Cotillard's categorization in doubt, Streep has this one locked up. She'll take it for J&J.

Matt Damon (Invictus)*
Woody Harrelson (The Messenger)*
Alfred Molina (An Education)
Christopher Plummer (The Last Station)
Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones)*
Christoph Waltz (Inglorious Basterds)*

4 of 5. Not bad. I had an inkling that Molina wouldn't show up, but I predicted him anyway, leaving off the "duh" choice of Christopher Plummer. I do still think Waltz will win - he's been sweeping the critics, and the GGs are loving his film - but this one could really go to anyone.

Penélope Cruz (Nine)*
Judi Dench (Nine)
Vera Farmiga (Up in the Air)*
Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air)*
Mo'Nique (Precious)*
Julianne Moore (A Single Man)

4 of 5. I definitely overestimated the Nine love. And I was doubting Moore's chances, so I left her off in favor of perennial nominee Judi Dench. But I think this category is great. Love the Up in the Air girls. Haven't seen Moore or Cruz yet, but love them in general. Also love Mo'Nique (who's clearly winning).

Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker)*
James Cameron (Avatar)*
Clint Eastwood (Invictus)
Rob Marshall (Nine)
Jason Reitman (Up in the Air)*
Quentin Tarantino (Inglorious Basterds)*

4 of 5. Overestimated the Nine love once again. And I assumed Eastwood's film would make it, but he wouldn't. Turns out I had that one backwards. This race should be very exciting - Bigelow, Cameron and Reitman are all definitely in play - though I think this one goes to the girl. Should be awesome.

The Coen Bros, A Serious Man
Nick Hornby, An Education
Neill Blomkamp & Teri Tatchell, District 9
Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Basterds*
Nancy Meyers, It's Complicated
Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker*
Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air*

3 of 5. Not bad, considering how whacked out this category is. I'm proud of myself for calling The Hurt Locker here. But the Nancy Meyers nomination is unfortunate. The District 9 nomination is weird, but welcome. I'm perplexed by the Coen Bros snub, and rather happy about the An Education snub. All in all, kind of a fun category.

Bright Star
Coco Avant Chanel
The Informant!*
A Single Man
The Lovely Bones
Where the Wild Things Are

2 of 5. Ouch. But the globe score category's always weird. At the least here, the nominees are good-weird. Loving the Single Man and Wild Things nods. Good on you, Golden Globes.

Crazy Heart
Everybody's Fine
Up in the Air

2 of 5. Meh. Sad about the Up in the Air snub. "Help Yourself" is REALLY GOOD, and the sequence where it's used in the film is quite memorable. Oh well. I'm assuming the Everybody's Fine and Brothers songs won't go the distance. What could win here? Tough to say. Right now, I'm saying Crazy Heart.

Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
The Fantastic Mr. Fox*
The Princess and the Frog*

4 of 5. This is probably the oscar shortlist. Too bad for Ponyo and Mary & Max.

A Prophet*
Broken Embraces*
Coco Avant Chanel
The Maid
Sin Nombre
The White Ribbon*

3 of 5. Not terrible.

So the tally is:

6 - Up in the Air (I guessed 7)
5 - Nine (I guessed 8... oops)
4 - Avatar (nailed it)
4 - Inglorious Basterds (nailed it)
3 - Invictus (got it, though in different categories)
3 - The Hurt Locker (nailed it)
3 - A Serious Man (failed it)
3 - A Single Man (I predicted the wrong Man for 3 nods)
3 - An Education (they didn't love it)
3 - It's Complicated (didn't see that third nod coming)
3 - Precious (got the # of categories right)
3 - The Lovely Bones (not so much)
3 - (500) Days of Summer (the Zooey nomination didn't happen)

So I knew which two movies would come out on top (though I thought Nine would fare better than Up in the Air), and I had a good idea of which other films would do well (i.e. 3 or 4 nods). Not bad, if I do say so myself.

Questions? Comments? Praise? I love reader participation...



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