Wednesday, December 09, 2009

I'm back with Golden Globe nomination predictions!

Hi, all! I know I don't blog anymore, so my readership is probably gone, but I'm gonna start back up again anyway since it's AWARDS SEASON now, and I have to vent my obsessions. I hope I can corral some people in here to comment. Early winner predictions in bold, with asterisks if I'm extra confident:

Inglorious Basterds
The Hurt Locker
*Up in the Air*

So many options... I wanted to go out on a limb and predict something like Bright Star or The Road or The Last Station, but there just doesn't seem to be room for a smaller film to break through. Apparently Avatar was very well received at an HFPA screening, Invictus has "bait + Clint Eastwood + international" in its favor, Inglorious Basterds is also international (so many languages!) and also has verve and an a marquée director, and Hurt Locker and Up in the Air have had all the buzz for some time now. I realize I'm taking a risk by leaving off Precious, but it hasn't had quite the box office people expected, and I'm sensing it's on the wane... and what is life without risks? And obviously An Education could show up here, too, though I feel surprisingly confident that it won't.

(500) Days of Summer
A Serious Man
It's Complicated
Julie & Julia

The Hangover poses a definite threat, but I refuse to predict it. Here's hoping A Serious Man keeps it out of this list... though I suppose Sherlock Holmes is possible, too.

Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart)
George Clooney (Up in the Air)
Johnny Depp (Public Enemies)
Colin Firth (A Single Man)
Morgan Freeman (Invictus)

I think Depp takes Renner's spot here. The other four seem locked and loaded for both this list and oscar's. The one other guy (aside from Renner) who could totally end up on this list is Viggo... but I don't think there's room.

Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side)
Abbie Cornish (Bright Star)
Carey Mulligan (An Education)
Saorsie Ronan (The Lovely Bones)
Gabourey Sidibe (Precious)

This category's actually quite crowded. I'm gonna just roll the dice and say Mirren gets snubbed (maybe they just won't respond much to The Last Station?) in favor of the above five. I wanted to predict Swinton, but I can't see her beating out any of these buzzier contenders. And that SUCKS. But there you go.

Matt Damon (The Informant!)
*Daniel Day-Lewis (Nine)*
Robert Downey Jr. (Sherlock Holmes)
Joseph Gordon-Levitt (500 Days of Summer)
Michael Stuhlbarg (A Serious Man)

Let's just go with this. There are other contenders, but I feel pretty good about these five.

Sandra Bullock (The Proposal)
Marion Cotillard (Nine)
Zooey Deschanel (500 Days of Summer)
Meryl Streep (It's Complicated)
Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia)

Yes, I am predicting that Pfeiffer will get the shaft in favor of Bullock (or rather, her great year), Cotillard, Deschanel, and a double dose of Streep. I also think Adams will be undone by the prevailing notion that her storyline was the inferior half of Julie & Julia and should've been eliminated altogether. But those two would be the obvious spoliers... along with perhaps Ellen Page and a few others.

Matt Damon (Invictus)
Woody Harrelson (The Messenger)
Alfred Molina (An Education)
Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones)
Christoph Waltz (Inglorious Basterds)

I've erred on the side of bigger names here - Damon, Harrelson and Tucci seem like good bets for the globes, along with likely winner Waltz - but I have left off Christopher Plummer. For some reason I'm feeling like they may just completely ignore The Last Station. We'll see.

Penélope Cruz (Nine)
Judi Dench (Nine)
Vera Farmiga (Up in the Air)
Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air)
*Mo'Nique (Precious)*

I'm guessing this category gets totally swarmed by women from what I think will be the nomination leaders (and eventual best picture winners) Up in the Air and Nine. But for what it's worth, I think Julianne Moore and Samantha Morton have strong potential to upset this list.

Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker)
James Cameron (Avatar)
Rob Marshall (Nine)
Jason Reitman (Up in the Air)
Quentin Tarantino (Inglorious Basterds)

Yes, I think both Clint Eastwood and Lee Daniels will be snubbed in favor of Tarantino and Marshall. I actually think Marshall could win here if they really go crazy for Nine, which they might. Obviously Reitman or Bigelow could also take the prize, as could Cameron if Avatar turns out to be huge.

The Coen Bros, A Serious Man
Nick Hornby, An Education
Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Basterds
Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker
*Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air*

I'm fairly confident in everything but The Hurt Locker. I actually didn't want to predict it, but I couldn't think of anything else I believed in more, so I figured it had the best shot for the 5th slot. It is a very well-regarded film and will probably get nominated somewhere other than picture and director, so I guess this could be the place. Not sure what could really replace it... maybe In the Loop, The Last Station, or The Lovely Bones? We'll see.

Bright Star
Coco Avant Chanel
The Informant!
The Lovely Bones

No idea. But I think some of these will be right...

Up in the Air

Again, no idea. But I think some of these will be right, particularly Avatar, the Nine songs, and Up in the Air.

The Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog

A Christmas Carol, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs or Mary & Max could definitely place, but I'm betting on these five.

A Prophet
Broken Embraces
Coco Avant Chanel
Sin Nombre
The White Ribbon

I think three or four of these will definitely place, but I doubt I'm totally on the mark. Just trying to go with acclaim, fame level of the filmmakers, and general buzz... although Spanish and French films are totally over-represented...

Capitalism: A Love Story
Food, Inc.
The Cove
This is It
Valentino: The Last Emperor

The globes tend to go more populist in this category (as I recall), so I'll go with these. But it's really hard to say.

So the tally is:

Nine (8)
Up in the Air (7)
Avatar (4)
Inglorious Basterds (4)
Invictus (3)
The Hurt Locker (3)
A Serious Man (3)
An Education (3)
Precious (3)
The Lovely Bones (3)
(500) Days of Summer (3)

...and the rest with scraps. So I guess I'm thinking they'll really spread the wealth, outside of the clear dominance of Nine and Up in the Air. Though the best pics are obvious, I expect director to be very tight between Bigelow, Reitman and Marshall, so it should be fun to see how that plays out.

Questions? Comments? Praise? I love reader participation...



Anonymous MovieArena said...

When it comes to the screenplays you have to watch "500 Days of Summer" - "An Education" and "The Hurt Locker" seems less of an Screenplay Movie.

5:02 AM  
Blogger adam k. said...

An Education does not have a brilliant screenplay, but it feels like the kind of film that will inevitably get screenplay kudos anyway.

500 Days, on the other hand, has a better screenplay (still not brilliant, though, I'd add), but it seems like the type to inevitably get nommed for oscar but snubbed here, where they can honor it in the comedy categories.

That's my take, anyway.

10:55 PM  
Anonymous Samuel Wright said...

sadly, I've hardly seen any of the movies from the nominee list - hopefully I'll get to watch more of them before the awards night comes around

12:42 AM  

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