OK, so I did badly on those predictions I just made.
Suffice it to say that I missed all the actual big surprises (The Reader, the Winslet switch, the Dark Knight snub, Michael Shannon, etc.), instead predicting my own big surprises that didn't pan out (Frost/Nixon snubbed for WALL•E, Patel in lead, Marsdan, etc.). I was on to something with the surprises, but my predictions still suffered for it. So basically I did worse than if I'd just played it safe. Oh well. Maybe next time.
I'll be light on the oscar stuff this year, just sayin'... though there will be more content in the near future.