OK, so here are the oscar nomination predictions that I barely have time to do...

Sorry, to anyone still reading. The blog kind of died over the past few weeks. I've been very busy with real life... making my thesis film and whatnot. But I feel like I should at least make some oscar predictions, on the record. So here goes:

BEST PICTURE
Slumdog Millionaire
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Milk
The Dark Knight
WALL•E

Mostly wishful thinking, I guess, but I'm gonna stick my neck out and guess that the generally unremarkable Frost/Nixon takes a dive for the very remarkable WALL•E... even though my mind says Milk is the one most likely to be snubbed.

BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle
David Fincher
Gus Van Sant
Christopher Nolan
Darren Aronofsky

Just a hunch that best pic and best director will yield two different surprises. Consensus seems to be forming that The Wrestler is building momentum and Aronofsky is the most likely director to surprise here. Though I have a lingering feeling that Van Sant could actually emerge as the lone director. We'll see.

BEST ACTOR
Sean Penn
Mickey Rourke
Frank Langella
Clint Eastwood
Dev Patel

Yeah, I said it. Dev Patel will be nominated HERE, according to my crazy predictions. As will Clint Eastwood. I'm opting for the total Brangelina snub... dangerous, but with a potentially big payoff if I'm right.

BEST ACTRESS
Meryl Streep
Anne Hathaway
Sally Hawkins
Melissa Leo
Kate Winslet

Jolie is probably in, but I refuse to admit it. This lineup would be so sweet... and I think there is a decent chance of it happening.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Heath Ledger
Philip Seymour Hoffman
Robert Downey Jr.
Josh Brolin
Dev Patel

OK, so here's where I hedge my bets. I really do think Patel will get a lot of votes in lead. But it'd also be crazy to bet against him here, for the simple reason that there's just no one to replace him. I think Shannon and Franco are dead in the water, frankly, mostly cause of lack of love for their films (or in Franco's case, just not ENOUGH love for the film to get it multiple nods here). The only other reasonable alternative is Eddie Marsdan, but Happy-Go-Lucky is on very shaky ground as well. If Hawkins is iffy, then I don't think he has much of a shot. So Patel it is. As long as he gets nominated SOMEwhere, I reap rewards. Hee.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams
Viola Davis
Penélope Cruz
Marisa Tomei
Kate Winslet

I wanted to be ballsy and predict Kate for The Reader in lead, but I really think that in this case, the category placement has set in. It's just how people see it at this point. It's won the globe and BFCA in this category, for chrissakes. But I hope I'm wrong... I really want Cruz to win this award. I've also lost faith in Henson and have gained faith in Adams (after that BAFTA nod). It seems that there are in fact people who love her more than Viola Davis.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Happy-Go-Lucky
Rachel Getting Married
Milk
WALL•E
Vicky Cristina Barcelona

There are a TON of possibilities here. It seems like they should all be able to get in. But they can't. So I just went with the most obviously easy gets: the Pixar film, the Woody Allen film, the Mike Leigh film, the best pic contender, and the nepotism/quirky indie spot (which also just happens to be the most deserving of them all). The Wrestler seems a likely spoiler except for the fact that even the film's biggest fans (Nat, Nick, etc.) haven't been nominating its script, even as they give it love in every other category. In Bruges also really seems poised to score here, but I just can't see it getting in over any of these five. We'll see.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Slumdog Millionaire
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader

I think The Dark Knight will take a back seat to The Reader in this category. The other four are pretty locked in. Rev Road is not even close here, I don't think.

Alright, now here's how I think the 5 most nominated films will do:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: 11 nods
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Film Editing
Best Cinematography
Best Art Direction
Best Costume Design
Best Makeup
Best Visual Effects
Best Original Score
Best Sound

The Dark Knight: 11 nods
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Supporting Actor
Best Film Editing
Best Cinematography
Best Art Direction
Best Makeup
Best Visual Effects
Best Original Score
Best Sound
Best Sound Effects Editing

Slumdog Millionaire: 9 nods
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best (Supporting?) Actor
Best Film Editing
Best Cinematography
Best Original Score
Best Original Song
Best Sound

WALL•E: 7 nods
Best Picture
Best Original Screenplay
Best Sound
Best Sound Effects Editing
Best Original Score
Best Original Song
Best Animated Feature

Milk: 6 nods
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Original Screenplay
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actor
Best Film Editing

I guess I'm being optimistic. We'll see in a few hours...