Monday, December 12, 2005

BFCA, NBR and NYFCC all love Brokeback Mountain

Well, the newest results are in, and it's official: Brokeback Mountain is the frontrunner. Period. It will win the oscar in february. I am rather certain of this.

People are still saying "it's just the critics who love it!" but please. The BFCA are not really critics. They are talking heads who reward what they think will win oscars. And Brokeback is leading their nominations. At this rate, I would be rather shocked if Brokeback DIDN'T earn 8 golden globe nominations tomorrow. It's missing in any of the 8 categories it hit at the BFCA's would not be logical. I'd say the absolute worst case scenario for it would be 6, which would still make it the nomination leader. And then it will likely win the globe.

There is still the issue of box office, but so far, box office has been fine. And with all this attention, I'd be surprised if it didn't make at least $50 million fairly easily. A big epic romantic movie winning every industry award in sight, complete with two popular heartthrobs as male leads, just can't be ignored for long, even if it the romance is a gay one. Sooner or later, average Joes (or at least average Janes) will start to say "alright, I'd better go see this Brokeback Mountain movie... there must be something to all this hype" (hey, it happened with Sideways, and that had arguably even less wide appeal). And I think most moviegoers will find themselves liking it. Or at least reacting to it strongly in some way.

And this may sound wrong, but believe me, there will be MANY a teenage girl lining up for repeat viewings to see Jake and Heath kiss and fondle. Seriously. Some teenagers are stupid and bigoted, but many just like to see hotties make out. And I'm sure many a gay man will be seeing it MANY MANY times. And then there's the older woman contingent. And the film buff contingent. I mean, basically, this film WILL make money.

The only thing I could see beating it right now would be NBR winner Good Night, and Good Luck (also the only film I could see beating it to the globe), or maybe, MAYBE Walk the Line. But GNaGL didn't make much money either, and WtL just feels too specific to win best pic... it's the kind of film that wins acting awards only. I think Munich is out of the winning circle. It's just not making enough of a wave. Brokeback Mountain has the high ground now, and if it wins the BFCA (highly likely) and the drama globe (highly likely), then it's losing the oscar would make AMPAS look like a bunch of big homophobes.

Come on, AMPAS. Take the high ground here. Do the right thing. You know you want to.


Blogger Kamikaze Camel said...

You've really been thinking about this long and hard haven't you?

7:02 AM  
Blogger adam k. said...

In a word... Yes.

2:15 AM  

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