Saturday, December 03, 2005

OK, some oscar predictions now

I'm just gonna lay out my thoughts on the major categories before the awards season kicks off.

1) Brokeback Mountain
2) Walk The Line
3) Munich
4) Good Night, and Good Luck
5) The New World

This list might be wishful thinking, but I really think these five will do well. I'm thinking The New World will supplant Memoirs as the "epic love story" nominee (unless you count Brokeback as one already). And Good Night, and Good Luck seems as likely as anything. The top three seem quite safe. The only thing that worries me is that there's no comedic nominee in the bunch... but that just happens sometimes. Walk The Line will at least be categorized comedy/musical at the globes, so that makes me feel somewhat better.

1) Ang Lee
2) Steven Spielberg
3) George Clooney
4) Terrence Malick
5) Woody Allen

I think this particular race is really down to seven men, and the other two are Mangold and Cronenberg. Both could easily make it. No combo of the seven would surprise me. But these five seem most likely right now.

1) PS Hoffman
2) Joaquin Phoenix
3) Eric Bana
4) Heath Ledger
5) David Straithairn

I am keeping Feinnes out for now. I am losing faith in him... although he and a few others have good shots.

1) Reese WItherspoon
2) Judi Dench
3) Felicity Humman
4) Joan Allen
5) Q'Orianka Kilcher

See previous post about SAG. I have faith in these five for now.

1) Bob Hoskins
2) George Clooney
3) Paul Giamatti
4) Jake Gyllenhaal
5) Christopher Plummer

Whatever. The first four I chose out of name recognition/past snubs/best picture nominee affiliation... these names just jumped out at me as easy picks. And Plummer I think may get a career type nom if The New World really ignites.

1) Scarlett Johannson
2) Diane Keaton
3) Michelle Williams
4) Uma Thurman
5) Maria Bello

I don't see how Johannson can miss here... they owe her and it's a huge spotlight role... and Woody's actresses otfen win awards. Keaton is looking strong, although I think the fact that she's part of an equally weighted ensemble in a non-oscary film makes her vulnerable. She could miss. Williams looks like a good bet, but she of course could miss, too. I think Thurman and Bello might benefit from their recent snubs... but maybe not. We'll see.

OK, that's it for now. Back to real life.



Blogger Kamikaze Camel said...

See now, I just have a feeling (which is silly cause there's no way I have any idea what the Academy are thinking) that something is going to pop up in one of the main categories that nobody is thinking about now. Or, at least, not thinking about as anything other than "wouldn't that be nice!"

I mean, I think that whoever or whatever it is will get some sort of precursor nod and go from there.

I don't know why... i just can't help but think that the season will not pan out as obviously as last year's did.

9:10 AM  
Blogger adam k. said...

Maybe Viggo?

The closest I have to that kind of thing happening is Bello... and I do kind of think she could get it.

11:42 AM  
Blogger Kamikaze Camel said...

I think she's a good bet for a Golden Globe nod (she was nommed for The Cooler too).

But even that performance is a decent possibility at the moment.

I'm meaning something like Fernando Meirelles for Best Director with City of God, or the one-two punch of Samantha Morton and Keisha Castle-Hughes in Best Actress. That year was wild for nom's. I suppose they figured LOTR was gonna win everything so they could go bananas with the nominations.


9:12 PM  
Blogger adam k. said...

I think Shirley MacLaine is actually a good bet for a globe nod, too. They love her immensely. I bet she'll be the sole notice for In Her Shoes.

I think their supporting actress list will go something like:

Scarlett Johannson
Diane Keaton
Uma Thurman
Michelle Williams
Shirley MacLaine

...and maybe Bello if they go for aHoV as a whole.

I really think Scarlett will win the golden globe. Have thought so all year. Don't see Uma missing since they'll give lots of love to The Producers. Same with Michelle/Brokeback. And they just love MacLaine.

10:49 PM  
Blogger Kamikaze Camel said...

If Bello doesn't get a Globe nod I think she'll be done for in terms of Oscar.

Your theory about MacLaine is good. But is it glamourous enough?

They could have a field of six this year I suppose. Johansson, Keaton, Williams and Thurman all sound like good bets for GG Supporting. But, you never know...

6:33 AM  
Blogger Ali said...

I really hope you're right about Maria Bello, who gave my favorite female supporting performance of the year (at least thus far).

And I don't know why, but I get the feeling that The New World is going to be shut out completely (aside from a few token tech nods).

1:14 AM  
Blogger adam k. said...

In terms of the globes, I really only see Bello making it if they go for the film (with Cronenberg and Viggo also getting in), which is unlikely, but could happen if there's a critical groundswell (i.e. Mulholland Dr.). Last time, Bello rode on the coattails of Baldwin... I don't think she has the kind of caché to get a nod without the film doing well. And it will be tough since Brokeback, The Producers and The Family Stone WILL most likely do well, and since they have shown considerable love for Johannson and MacLaine.

10:50 AM  
Blogger Kamikaze Camel said...

Ali, I too am getting that vibe from New World. A couple of techs and MAYBE a token nod to Q'orianka. But if she doesn't move people then she won't get in. Keisha and Catalina moved people. She'll need that to get in.

I don't think Bello rode the coattails of Baldwin. She was good in her own rights. And, if memory serves me correct, she doesn't have too many scenes with Baldwin.

11:16 AM  
Blogger adam k. said...

I just mean I don't think she would've gotten the globe or SAG attention if Baldwin hadn't gotten that boost from NBR and given attention to the movie. But who knows.

4:30 PM  
Blogger Kamikaze Camel said...

Oh okay. I spose.

I knew the NBR was good for some things! Rewarding Baldwin was a great start.

8:59 PM  
Blogger adam k. said...

The NBR is good for lots of things. Moulin Rouge!!!

But they suck a lot too, at times. Like when they got the ball rolling for Berry (not that I hate her THAT much, but she didn't deserve that award... you'd think they'd have given it to Nicole for her body of work).

Don't they announce tomorrow? I'm excited.

9:20 PM  

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