Friday, December 09, 2005

OK, here goes:

I'm calling it now: Brokeback Mountain will win the oscar for Best Picture of 2005. I really believe this. I've insinuated as much many times, but now I'm making it my official stance. I am firmly behind this prediction.

Apparently, Munich is a tad disappointing (not to mention COLD and PESSIMISTIC, two adjectives not generally attached to best picture winners)... and, well... I just believe in Brokeback. The good reviews are more like stellar reviews, and the bad reviews are generally nonsensical. Everyone who sees it has a strong reaction. It is being called "landmark" from coast to coast. It is a classic romance with a unique edge. It is timely and timeless. There are no other movies this year that can stake these claims.

Also, the globes like Ang Lee and his movies a lot (S&S won best drama, CTHD won director and probably would have won picture if not for their rules exculding foreign films), so that will help. And I think it will nab Best Picture from at least one major critics' group (possibly several).

It could easily get oscar-nommed in all of these categories:

Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Cinematography
Best Film Editing
Best Original Score
Best Original Song

That's 10 nominations - more than enough to be a frontrunner. Even Munich probably will not exceed this tally. Walk The Line definitely won't.

It seems like an uphill battle, but is it really?

Brokeback Mountain will win... and it'll deserve to.


Blogger Kamikaze Camel said...

Hmm. I'm not there yet. I think he has a very excellent (frontrunner) shot at Best Director, but Picture may take a while to achieve.

But, if it does, the Academy will need to be applauded.

6:57 AM  
Blogger adam k. said...

I suppose I could see a Brokeback/Walk the Line split, but I think Brokeback taking both is more likely.

Of course a lot can change, but I was just thinking about it, and do you realize that Brokeback may very well get 8 golden globe noms next week? It will get between 6 and 8, depending on how kind they are to the supporting actors, whether they buy Jake as supporting, etc. (after the Foxx debacle, I think they will). Those are frontrunner numbers. And it will lead the oscar noms, too... that counts for a lot.

Yeah, I'm presumptuous, but why not take a stand? Remember when everyone was all skeptical about the ROTK win and then it swept everything and people were like, "well, yeah, obviously..."

OK, that was different, but I still think Brokeback is the film to beat, and people just aren't giving it credit for that.

It's fun to do all this guesswork before any precursors come out, cause I feel like there's enough subtle evidence that a Brokeback tsunami will sweep through. But if it somehow falls flat, I'll be really disappointed.

12:54 PM  
Blogger Tricia said...

Brokeback Mountain does have a pretty stellar trailer, but if you haven't actually seen the film, I don't know how you could be so confident in its superiority. I am very excited to see it!

12:07 AM  
Blogger Kamikaze Camel said...

Cold Mountain got 8 Globe nominations... that's all i'll say.

1:12 AM  
Blogger adam k. said...

The reason Cold Mountain pooped out later on, though, is that is wasn't good.

Not the case here.

And to Tricia, I know I haven't seen it, but it does look amazing, as Lee's films usually are, and has gotten enough raves by people I go by that I'm pretty confident that it's great.

3:14 AM  

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