I weep for you, Joan Allen.

This is a particularly low point in the oscar bid for Joan Allen's performance in The Upside of Anger, and I felt the need to take a moment and mourn her likely snubbing. Now I'm not sure her performance is my very favorite this year (I was truly entranced by Witherspoon - she made me smile every moment she was onscreen - and I have yet to see Dench or Huffman or Theron), but how on earth is she on the verge of being snubbed for this? It is really New Line's fault, I think, for how they handled the release/campaign, but really it's starting to seem like there's some kind of conspiracy in Hollywood to keep Allen from being nominated.

If New Line had just released this last year like they'd planned, she would've been nominated last year. That Catalina Sandino Moreno spot would totally have gone to her. Or, if they'd just waited and released it this fall, she also would've been nominated this year, easily. OR, even with the March release, if they'd just given her a good campaign, she STILL would've grabbed a spot easily. And even without a real campaign, if the NBR had just cited her for her 3 films (instead of Huffman), since they like multi-film years, she would've gotten on solid footing. Or even without that, if the HFPA had just put her in comedy like they were expected to and given her a nod (or, god forbid, actually nominated her in drama), she would've gained some much-needed visibility and still been in a much better position. Or even then, if SAG had just picked up the slack like they often do and reintroduced her (instead of propping up Zhang Ziyi), I would have felt pretty confident in her chances. But now here we are, all the major precursors out, and the only major group that's thrown her any kind of a bone is the goddamn BFCA, and she probably would've missed there, too, had they not had six slots.

Anyway... it could be a conspiracy... or it could just be a chain reaction of really unfortunate decisions. You decide. I am still holding out hope, but I must admit, I am saddened and doubtful. Not just for Allen, but for the relevance of awards in general when sheeplike groupthink, bad campaigns, and bad release dates continue to doom worthy candidates.

Oh well... at least likely winner Witherspoon is truly deserving, which is more than one can say for arguably ANY other best actress winner this decade. That's a plus. Now, Felicity, PLEASE don't ruin it.