Best Supporting Actress

I think the rankings now probably are:

1) Michelle Williams (lock)
2) Rachel Weisz (lock)
3) Catherine Keener (likely)
4) Amy Adams (rising)
5) Maria Bello (iffy)
6) Frances McDormand (seems in, but I am doubting it)
7) ScarJo (seemed in before, but now I'm REALLY doubting it)

I expect the top three to make it, since they've basically been everywhere (Keener missed at the globes, but they clearly just didn't like Capote overall, while other groups did)... and a globe snub is not bad if you recover at SAG). I really didn't think Adams would make it before, and I still have my doubts, since it's such a small film with no oscar chaces anywhere else, and she's still basically unknown, and also there's Nat's theory about actresses choking the chicken... but with the triple whammy of the SAG nom, the NSFC win, and now the BFCA win, one has to sit up and take notice; the support is definitely there. But will it be enough? Hard to say. The preferential voting system bodes well for her, however. And speaking of preferential voting, Bello should benefit from it also, since I'm sure she has many rabid fans... but the combination of AMPAS category confusion and SAG snubbing her when there was no category confusion is worrying. Still, I think she has a better chance than Frances McDormand, who I just sense will be snubbed despite her continued presence in precursors (I think both North Country stars will be snubbed, since the film itself is blah and neither is owed anything by the academy). And that leaves ScarJo, who I still think has a lot of goodwill from her previous snub, but no one seems to care at all about the performance other than the HFPA.

I really think that Adams, Bello, Frances, and Scarlett are pretty even... no two of those four would surprise me... it's tough to see. I think everyone else it kinda out of it, however.

As for the win, I'm thinking Williams... back when ScarJo and Keaton looked like the frontrunners, I thought it would be Scarlett for the globe, Keaton for the SAG, and someone else surprising for the oscar... probably Williams. And now it's looking like still Scarlett for the globe, maybe someone else for the SAG, and then who knows for the oscar? Maybe ScarJo/Weisz/Williams? Or ScarJo/Williams/Williams? Or maybe even Williams/Williams/Williams (doubtful)? I still think it's going to be one of those unpredictable years in this category where the precursors are all over the map, but if anyone emerges as a real frontrunner, it will be Williams. She has the whole "longsuffering wife in best picture frontrunner" thing that JConn had, and there is no clear critical favorite to get in her way (Adams comes closest, but she is hardly a steamroller, and she's still fighting to even get a nomination).

So my "right now" prediction for oscar's Best Supporting Actress:

Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain