Sunday, October 29, 2006

Oscar charts: Best Actress

THE FIVE (5/5=100%)
1) Helen Mirren (The Queen) (=)
2) Meryl Streep (Devil Wears Prada) (+1)
3) Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandal) (-1)
4) Penelope Cruz (Volver) (=)
5) Kate Winslet (Little Children) (=)

UPDATE (1/23): Yawn. But also, YAY! What a sweet lineup this is.

And Mirren is still a lock for the win... hence the continued bold type.

UPDATE (1/20): So BAFTA puts their hat into the ring and nominates the SAME five ladies. Can you say "locked"? It is rather bizarre how literally every organization has had the exact same lineup. But it's fine with me. They all deserve it.

UPDATE (1/5): Not much to say. These are the five. SAG says so and BFCA says so. Plus they deserve it.

Each of the others all has some advantage that keeps her on the chart at all - a major year, Hollywood royalty status, frontrunner film, globe nod, frequent nudity - but none of them will make it. This race is done.

UPDATE (12/16): Mirren, Dench, Streep, Cruz and Winslet will be the lineup. But if they do decide to shun Kate or anyone else, the 5th spot could go any which way... though it'll most likely go to Bening or Gyllenhaal.

UPDATE (12/3): No change in the top five; I think this is the lineup. But Beyoncé moves into striking distance as Dreamgirls' buzz comes to a head, and Blanchett takes a hit, having failed a nod at the satellites. Maggie G and Gretchen Mol rise up with their satellite nods (and possible globe nods). Watts rises as her film exceeds expectations... and Kidman finally falls out of the top ten (and how).

UPDATE (11/19): No change in the lineup, and very little change in the order... but my girl Kate is slipping. I still think she's in the lineup, but many don't. I say she ekes this one out over Blanchett and Bening, for many reasons. Shame, though, that she has no chance of winning.

FIRST THOUGHTS: Great crop of actresses this year, even without Ashley Judd for Bug. Unfortunately for most of them, this race already seems all locked up. Mirren will win, says everyone, and while I don't know quite how locked up that win is, it sure would be hard for someone else to overtake her. And the other four slots are pretty much taken, too. I find it hard to imagine (after seeing the Notes on a Scandal trailer) that they will pass on Streep, Winslet, or Dench (they're all huge oscar favorites, at least nomination-wise). And if you believe the hype, the annual "breakthrough" slot belongs to Cruz.

Blanchett is a distinct possibility, but I feel like German will be too cool and stylized for the academy, and she'll have to sit this one out and settle for a fraudulent supporting nomination for Notes. Bening also still has a shot, but when push comes to shove, the bad response to Scissors will probably kill her nod. Beyoncé, I think, will get closer to a nod than people are expecting, but will not make it simply due to the stiff competition. Nicole and Renée will have to settle for globe nods (as they often do).


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