Sunday, October 29, 2006

Oscar charts: Best Director

THE FIVE (4/5=80%)
1) Martin Scorsese (The Departed) (=)
2) Clint Eastwood (Letters) (+5)
3) Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu (Babel) (-1)
4) Stephen Frears (The Queen) (-1)
5) Paul Greengrass (United 93) (-1)

UPDATE (1/23): NOOOO!!! I had this category PERFECT forever and then yesterday I changed it, opting for the Sunshine duo over Clint. WHY??? I KNEW he'd make it. I also KNEW Greengrass would make it. I should've gone 5/5 here. DAMMIT.

Anyway. I still think Marty has this locked up, but now Clint is looming... so you never know...

UPDATE (1/22): Swapping Dayton & Faris for Eastwood. This might be a dumb move, but I'm thinking that Eastwood might actually still be splitting his votes in this category between his two films, paving the way for someone to take that spot. Plus, he's been nowhere except the globes. So here's hoping Dayton & Faris ride this wave of LMS heat right into the lineup (I really do think Condon has the been chance of missing).

UPDATE (1/20): Whoa. Many are predicting a 5/5 correlation here with best picture, but I just don't think that will happen. Condon, Dayton & Faris COULD of course be nominees, but I'm betting their slots go to Greengrass & Eastwood. Just a hunch. Both of them seem like perfect candidates for the "lone director" spot... and Condon, Dayton & Faris seem like perfect candidates for dropouts. Though actually, I wouldn't be shocked to see any of the presumed "locks" miss here (save Scorsese).

UPDATE (1/5): I'm dropping Condon, and giving into the inevitability of Frears. Having seen Dreamgirls, I now believe more strongly than ever that the directors will snub it (if the DGA snub Condon, he's gone). And The Queen's semi-surprise PGA nod indicates a lot of strength for that film. So I'm feeling good about my predicted five. Still, the spanish men and Todd Field are all still possible, as is a double dip for Clint.

UPDATE (12/16): Marty continues to lead the pack. Clint joins him at the top. Those two are the only locks. Inarritu and Greengrass are both looking good, whether or not their films make the cut. And Condon takes a bit of a dive, having failed a nod with the globes, but he still holds spot #5, thus shutting out Frears, who I continue to believe will be snubbed for no logical reason. Other than those 6, Clint for Flags stands the best chance of getting a nod. Pedro, Guillermo and Todd are here mostly as longshots/space fillers.

UPDATE (12/3): As with best pic, no change in the top six, but lots of movement elsewhere. Eastwood for Flags makes a big leap up, but I'm still betting Eastwood for Letters gets the nod. Still think Frears will get pushed out. Also, Guillermo Del Toro, Gabriel Muccino, and Sunshine's two directors all join the chart as their films' profiles rise... as does Robert Altman with his death.

UPDATE (11/19): Lots of movement here. First of all, I've added Clint for Letters From Iwo Jima, which I think will easily get him a nod now (instead of Flags) if it's as good as they say. I am also losing some faith in Inarritu, but I've kept him in for now. And I don't know why I'm so resistant to Stephen Frears. I just feel like there are so many "lone director" types this year, and that he will be one of the ones who's booted for, say, Eastwood or Greengrass. Also, Stone makes a leap upward to #12, and Cuaron falls to #16.

UPDATE (11/1): I've bumped Eastwood. His film has been losing steam. In his place, I have Paul Greengrass, who I think will be this year's lone director, replacing Stephen Frears for The Queen.

FIRST THOUGHTS: I don't expect my lineup to be the lineup. Probably Almodovar and/or Eastwood will miss to make way for Greengrass and/or Frears. At this point, the top 7 seem like where the final 5 will come from. The others on the chart are definite possibilities if their films catch fire later in the season, but for now, they all seem doubtful. Marty, it seems, is headed for the win, but saying that might jinx it, so "sssssshhh!"


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