Wednesday, December 13, 2006

BFCA nominees & reactions

OK, so...


Blood Diamond
The Departed
Letters from Iwo Jima
Little Children
Little Miss Sunshine
Notes on a Scandal
The Queen
United 93

Interesting. Babel continues to do well, but not too well, with these lists. Hard to say how much momentum it has. Diamond shouldn't be here. Little Children really needed this, and I'm glad it got it. Notes is getting more actual best picture play than I thought it would... seemed (like Iris, Eyre's last oscar film) to be all about the performances. United also makes good here, and strengthens its case for an oscar nod (but a lock? please.)

Condon, Dreamgirls
Eastwood, Letters
Frears, Queen
Greengrass, United
Scorcese, Departed

Looking quite likely as the oscar lineup, and possibly the best pic lineup as well. I still have this nagging feeling that Frears will be replaced by someone, but if Queen continues to win critics' awards and does well at the globes, I'll have to abandon that notion. All in all, this seems like a good lineup to me, though I've only seen 2 of the films (I'm seeing Queen tomorrow).

DiCaprio, Diamond
DiCaprio, Departed
Gosling, Half Nelson
O'Toole, Venus
Smith, Pursuit of Happyness
Whitaker, Last King of Scotland

So Leo's nominated twice. I think his oscar nom (if it happens) will be for Departed, but they need to get a proper campaign going, stat. If Diamond continues to do this inexplicably well, then vote splitting could be an issue. Still, this could be the lineup (with only one Leo, of course). The ones to look out for are Cohen and Watanabe. I think one of them will displace one of these guys (probably Watanabe). Peter, Ryan, Will and Leo are all vulnerable for different reasons. I still wish Hugh Jackman could get some traction, but alas, it is not happening.

Cruz, Volver
Dench, Notes
Mirren, Queen
Streep, Prada
Winslet, Children

That sound you hear is the sound of these nominees locking in for oscar. This will be the lineup, folks. Notice how this is (quite conspicuously) the ONLY top category with only five nominess. Why? They probably didn't believe in Blanchett, Bening, or Beyoncé enough to even give them a 6th spot. These are our five nominees... unless something changes drastically. And since Mirren is winning every precursor award, it looks like nothing will.

Affleck, Hollywoodland
Arkin, Sunshine
Beach, Flags
Hounsou, Diamond
Murphy, Dreamgirls
Nicholson, Departed
Pitt, Babel

So yeah, that picture is what Brad looked like when he got the news (you might notice he's not a nominee). People must really not love this performance very much, if Beach can get a nod over him here when Flags, even here, is quite dead. And I continue to wonder just how much support Hounsou really has. I should see Blood Diamond to get an idea of how good this performance really is. Affleck, I think, will get a globe nod, but will falter with SAG and oscar, since his film has died. Of these six, it seems that Murphy, Nicholson and Arkin are IN, Beach is OUT (sorry, stick a fork in him, he's done), and Affleck and Hounsou are iffy. Pitt and Sheen will likely be fighting for those two spots (and it's tough to imagine either not getting one). And Jackie Earle Haley is still possible (as I've maintained in my charts all along).

Barraza, Babel
Blanchett, Notes
Hudson, Dreamgirls
Kikuchi, Babel
Thompson, Stranger
O'Hara, FYC

Interesting. Barazza and Kikuchi both scored here, but could they do so in a field of 5? Probably, since Thompson is out, I think. The perf, however pleasant, just wasn't that special, and neither was the film around it. Blanchett and Hudson are in, it seems, with Hudson a lock for the win. Breslin didn't make it here (as I expected she wouldn't), but that might not mean much, since she has her own category. Now we'll have to wait till SAG to see if she can really compete with these women (she is going lead at the globes). O'Hara remains something of a wild card. I think her chances are good, but I really don't know what I'm basing that on - I haven't even seen her film. One notable thing is the absence of Farmiga; if she fails to make the globe list, too, then it's safe to say she probably won't be swept along with The Departed.

The Departed
Little Miss Sunshine
A Prairie Home Companion

Departed, Dreamgirls, and Sunshine will undoubtedly be in the SAG race as well. Babel is also looking strong for recognition there. Could the 5th spot go to United? I have my doubts. But if the actors like the film in general, then they'll vote for it; it is after all a great ensemble film (p.s. an actress who was in United 93 and had small parts in lots of other things came to my seminar the other week, OMG!). Bobby and Prairie seem out of the hunt for awards play at this point, but maybe not. Who knows. And Little Children, widely praised for its acting, could still show up here as well.

Arndt, Little Miss Sunshine
Arriaga, Babel
Field & Perrota, Little Children
Helm, Stranger Than Fiction
Monahan, The Departed
Morgan, The Queen

Remove Stranger and this is probably the globe screenplay lineup. Unless they don't remove it (shudders; I really hope that screenplay doesn't get an oscar nod). All of these look good for screenplay oscar nods as well (with the exception, perhaps, of Stranger... please). The drama for me is all about which of these will WIN the best screenplay globe; I could see it going to almost any of them.

Flushed Away
Happy Feet
Monster House
Over the Hedge

Probably the oscar lineup.

Probably Feet will win.

Days of Glory
Letters from Iwo Jima
Pan's Labyrinth

I assume this is a Volver vs. Letters smackdown. I also assume Letters will win this award, along with all the other foreign film awards it's allowed into. Sigh.

An Inconvenient Truth
Shut Up and Sing!
This Film Is Not Yet Rated
Who Killed the Electric Car?

Go, Al Gore, go!!! I assume this will be the first of many statues for Truth. Please let it win the oscar. It's so good, and so worthy of attention. I don't know what the other oscar nominees will be, and frankly, I don't care. I just want the global warming movie to win.

Akeelah and the Bee
Charlotte's Web
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

I wonder what will win this award. One first assumes, "Pirates. Done." ...but first of all, is it even really a family film? I guess they think so, but whatever. And also, it wasn't very well reviewed. Up against family classic stalwarts like Charlotte's Web and Lassie, it could lose. But it probably won't. Whatever.

Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
The Devil Wears Prada
For Your Consideration
Little Miss Sunshine
Thank You For Smoking

I wonder what will win THIS one. I suppose Borat is the obvious choice, especially is "best comedy" = "funniest"... but they could give it to Little Miss Sunshine as a consolation prize for losing the big one (it's the only Best Pic nominee here)... or they could also just go with all-around goodness and mainstream appeal and choose Prada. It's probably Borat vs. Sunshine, and LMS has to win somewhere...doesn't it?

Elizabeth I
The Librarian
Nightmares and Dreamscapes
The Ron Clark Story
When the Levees Broke

Hmm. Elizabeth I won the emmy and will probably win this... especially given the year-long Mirren love fest. But they could go all topical and pick Levees. Edge: Elizabeth

Oh whatever. One thing I will say is that I'm wondering who will win these... these were all very very good child/teen performances, and it's hard to pick one from each. Probably Dano and Breslin, but that's just cause they're from the most lauded film. Maybe little boy Smith and Breslin. It's really impossible to know.

OK, I'm done now. I don't want to type anymore. But those are my thoughts. What are yours?


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