Monday, January 22, 2007

final Oscar predictions + actuals

The "big 8" categories are on the charts (all charts are now down to five), and the rest of the categories are right here. Let's see how I did (yikes!):

The Departed
The Queen
United 93
(alt. Little Miss Sunshine)

...and the shockers were: Blood Diamond and Children of Men.

And boy, were they shockers. This category has been veering away from best picture lately. Good for it. And I LOVE that Dreamgirls was snubbed here. That editing was a mess, despite the occasional snappy musical number.

For the win? Babel vs. The Departed vs. United 93

I actually wanna say United takes it, since the other two editors have already won. But this race will be tight.

Children of Men
The Illusionist
(alt. Curse of the Golden Flower)

...and the shockers were: The Black Dahlia, Pan's Labyrinth and The Prestige.

Like, whoa. I really bombed here. Good for them, though, for steering clear of best picture nominees, especially Dreamgirls... oh wait, it wasn't nominated. Hee.

Anyway, I'd like to see Children of Men take this, and it probably will. It's closest competition is probably Pan's Labyrinth, but that will be winning enough other categories that it won't need to win here.

Children of Men
Curse of the Golden Flower
Pan's Labyrinth
(alt. The Prestige)

...and the shockers were: The Good Shepherd and Pirates of the Carribbean: Dead Man's Chest.

And those really were shockers. Lotsa crazy stuff in these here tech categories. And of course, I got a shitty score here again.

I assume this is between Dreamgirls and Pan's Labyrinth, and in truth I don't much care for either in this category (where is Children of Men???), but I'd rather see Pan's take it than see a repeat of the totally unnecessary Chicago win in this category four years ago. OK, Dreamgirls isn't Chicago, but it's close enough (please don't win!).

The Black Dahlia
Curse of the Golden Flower
The Illusionist
(alt. The Painted Veil)

...and the shockers were: The Devil Wears Prada and The Queen.

Yay for Prada here! Shouldn't have been so cynical about its chances. This is a nice nominee list overall, but I'm not sure what will actually win it. I would've said Dreamgirls (and it probably still has the edge here), but now that it's down and out as a best picture contender, might Marie or Curse or Prada swoop in and take it? Hmmm... my bet is Dreamgirls, but I sense an upset in the works here.

Night at the Museum
Pirates of the Carribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Superman Returns
(alt. X-Men: The Last Stand)

...and the shocker was: Poseidon.

OK, so that wasn't really a shocker. Shoulda listened to Kris Tapley.

But anyway, I assume Pirates is headed for the win here... even though Superman deserves it. And don't even get my started on The Fountain...

BEST MAKE-UP (2/3=67%)
Pan's Labyrinth
Pirates of the Carribbean: Dead Man's Chest
(alt. Click)

Well, I got Click as an alternate! I think that counts for something.

Anyway, weird that they jettisoned Pirates here... I assumed it was another example of the makeup branch having issues with makeup enhanced by effects work. Whatever. This one's Pan's to lose.

BEST SOUND (4/5=80%)
Blood Diamond
The Departed
Flags of Our Fathers
Pirates of the Carribbean: Dead Man's Chest
(alt. Babel)

...and the shocker was: Apocalypto.

OK, again, not a real shocker. Just a bad decision on my part. Don't know why I believed so much in The Departed here.

I assume this is going to Dreamgirls, with Blood Diamond and Flags each getting their share of votes.

The Departed
Flags of Our Fathers
Pirates of the Carribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Superman Returns
(alt. World Trade Center)

...and the shockers were: Apocalypto, Blood Diamond and Letters from Iwo Jima.

OUCH. You'd think this category would be easier. Oh well.

It's Flags vs. Letters for the win. Letters will probably take it, best pic nominee that it is.

The Fountain
Notes on a Scandal
The Painted Veil
The Queen
(alt. The Illusionist)

...and the shockers were: Babel, The Good German and Pan's Labyrinth.

OUCH. I SUCK. And so does the music branch. WHERE are The Painted Veil and The Fountain??? Sigh. But maybe Desplat will still win for his other film (thank the lord they finally acknowledged him here, anyway, even if it is for one of his least inspired efforts).

The win seems wide open at this point. Pan's, Notes or Queen could easily take it... tough to predict, this one.

Cars ("Our Town")
Dreamgirls ("Listen")
Happy Feet ("Song of the Heart")
An Inconvenient Truth ("I Need to Wake Up")
Little Miss Sunshine ("'Til the End of Time")
(alt. Dreamgirls ("Love You I Do")

...and the shocker was Dreamgirls (AGAIN, for the song, "Patience")

OK, not so terrible here. I did pretty well, considering. Didn't think they'd snub the globe-winning song, but then I guess they didn't know it'd win the globe when they were voting, did they?

It's Etheridge vs. Krieger for the win. If the Dreamgirls people make it clear that "Listen" is the song they want to win, then its chances are pretty darn good... but I'd love to see An Inconvenient Truth take this.

Anyway, this'll be a great lineup to listen to during the broadcast. Good on AMPAS in this category... though I wish "'Til the End of Time" could've scored here. I do love that song.

Happy Feet
Monster House
(alt. Over the Hedge)

YAY! My first perfect category, outside of acting. And Monster House deserved that last spot. Good show.

Days of Glory (Algeria)
The Lives of Others (Germany)
Pan's Labyrinth (Mexico)
Volver (Spain)
Water (Canada)
(alt. Black Book (The Netherlands))

...and the shocker was: After the Wedding (Denmark).

OK. I mean... it sucks, I know. Volver totally deserved to be here. In fact, it deserved to be in the best pic category and totally deserved to WIN here. But I don't think this means they hate Pedro. I think they just wanted to spread the wealth. They've given Pedro a lot already, and other foreign filmmakers deserve love, too. At least that's what I'm trying to tell myself. Cause I'm PISSED that Volver is not here.

Deliver Us From Evil
An Inconvenient Truth
Iraq in Fragments
Jesus Camp
Jonestown: The Life and Death of the People's Temple
(alt. Shut Up and Sing)

...and the shocker was: My Country, My Country.

OK, so I did pretty well here. In all honesty, I was just copying Kris Tapley's predictions. I didn't even know this My Country thing even existed. But it's probably good.

My prediction score in the "big 8" categories was 33/40 or 82.5%, and I'm pretty happy with that (better than Kris Tapley!). But I'm not even gonna bother calculating a total score for ALL the categories... that's just too much trouble, and it would bring my score down anyway. I'd rather just pretend I got 82.5% acress the board.

Anyway, now let's check my projected nomination totals vs. the actual ones. My predictions are on the right; the actual totals are on the left, in bold. Best pic nominees' titles are also in bold:

8 - Dreamgirls (9)
7 - Babel (7)
6 - The Queen (6)
6 - Pan's Labyrinth (3)
5 - Blood Diamond (2)
5 - The Departed (8)
4 - Little Miss Sunshine (6)
4 - Letters from Iwo Jima (0)
4 - Notes on a Scandal (4)
4 - Pirates of the Carribbean: Dead Man's Chest (4)
3 - Apocalypto (3)
3 - Little Children (3)
3 - Children of Men (3)

...and a whole bunch of other films with 2 nominations each.

I actually got many of the totals right. But it seems I either got it right or misread a film's support completely. I (along with most people) very much underestimated Blood Diamond, Pan's Labyrinth, and Letters from Iwo Jima, and I also overshot significantly on The Departed and a tad on Little Miss Sunshine. I'm proud of predicting that Dreamgirls wouldn't reach the double digits, though even I never thought it would be snubbed in the big race.

And speaking of the big race... what exactly is supposed to win this thing? With the presumed frontrunner GONE, another presumed frontrunner crippled (without a director nod) and yet another (The Departed) dogged by a low nomination total, what will rise up? Letters? Does it have a chance? It has the lowest nomination total of all (apart from Little Miss Sunshine), but I have a feeling it'll be seeing a huge surge of support in the coming weeks). Or could Babel (the nomination leader among the nominees) or The Queen (the runner-up) actually take it? What a roller-coaster ride this best picture race has been. It really is a wide open race.



Blogger Kamikaze Camel said...

"my bet is Dreamgirls, but I sense an upset in the works here."

Four Words:





Critically lambasted, missed in all major categories but still got high tech total, wins in three categories.

I still think it's very possible, but a lot of the time they go for the obvious choice. The best thing working for The Devil Wears Prada over, say, Marie Antoinette is that Prada has been seen by a lot more people. It's respected by a lot of tech people and obviously well-liked by actors, BAFTA people, so on. So... yeah. I could see it happening, but wouldn't hold my breath for it.

7:13 AM  
Blogger adam k. said...

Yeah, you're right.

I think it's down to Dreamgirls or Prada due to, as you said, people having actually seen them. I just feel like now that Prada is actually on the ballot, people will take a second look and go, "man, those clothes were cool."

And really, Dreamgirls can't win in EVERY category it's nominated in... can it???

7:24 AM  

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