Yay! I liked the show.

The only thing I'm really pissed about is Children of Men losing cinematography... not just the fact that it lost but the reasons why it lost. I get that Pan's was more typically "pretty" and more loved in general, but I hate that a nominee who won the guild award, BAFTA and every critics award AND who was the most innovative and unique AND who should've won last year too lost to another film just cause it was "prettier" and had the heat. Anyone who was paying any attention would've seen that Children of Men was far and away the superior - indeed, the only - choice. It's always sad when a frontrunner that's actually deserving ends up losing, but alas it seems to happen every year.

But aside from that... yay! I really enjoyed most of the wins. And my three last-minute changes (in song, foreign film and supporting actor) were ALL correct. Go me. Also, Ellen is great and should host this thing every year.

So, I did pretty well, getting a few of the surprises, but missing others. I knew Happy Feet had a shot at the win, but was not courageous enough to predict it. The Departed win in editing surprised me, as did the aforementioned Pan's win cinematography win. Also, HOW did Gustavo Santaolalla win AGAIN for a score that was barely there? They love him. He's the Tom Hanks of the original score category. But you'd think that score would've been disqualified when other highly acclaimed work (Moulin Rouge, The Aviator, etc.) has been in the past.

Anyway, I was sad that Peter O'Toole lost. I think his perf was in the same league as Whitaker's, and it would've been great to see him win. But as it is, he holds the record for most nominated actor never to win, so that's kind of special. I'm also happy for Etheridge and Inconvenient Truth. I know Glenn isn't, but whatever. Here in America where people are stupid, that movie has actually made a huge difference. People in general didn't used to "get" global warming. Now they do. And it's largely this film's fault. Plus, I just thought it was really good... like, as a film. So more power to it.

And yay for Marty. FINALLY. I'm glad The Departed won, cause it proves the academy is still sort of in touch with critics and the public, and spares Little Miss Sunshine the backlash it would've gotten from a win.

I also predicted all top 8 categories correctly. Yay! Even though I kinda died in the techs. I didn't really predict animated short/documentary short/live action short, but of the categories I DID predict, I got 16/21 right. And if I had officially predicted the other three, I'd have gotten two of them, for a total of 18/24 (at my oscar party, I marked down West Bank Story and The Blood from Yingzhou District, but missed the other one... but I have no blog record of that). Oh yeah, and I got 9 out of 13 Spirit Award predictions right. That's not bad, I guess.

Phew. OK, that's it. I have school stuff to do now. I have to learn how to use a film camera and also learn a bunch of piano by tomorrow morning. Maybe.

Check for the continuation of the Streepathon, and the beginning of the Altmanathon and the Almovovaration (yes, another one... with the oscars over, I will have time) in the coming weeks. That, and continued screenings of old 2006 films I never got to.

Cheers!

Spirit predix and (semi)final Oscar predix

2007 Spirit Award predictions (full list of nominees here)

BEST FEATURE
prediction: Little Miss Sunshine seems like the inevitable winner here. The only oscar nominee in the category, and too big a success to pass up.
alternate: Half Nelson
look out for: Pan's Labyrinth (why isn't this one in foreign?)

BEST FIRST FEATURE
prediction: Wow, I have no idea. None of these have a very high profile. But I'll go with The Motel since I just read a story about how great it is that it's nominated.
alternate: Day Night Day Night
look out for: Man Push Cart (whatever, I have no idea)

BEST DIRECTOR
prediction: Dayton & Faris will most likely be honored along with their film.
alternate: Ryan Fleck, Half Nelson
look out for: Robert Altman, A Prairie Home Companion

JOHN CASSAVETES AWARD (best feature under $500,000 or some such)
prediction: Quinceanera (I'm not even venturing an alternate guess, cause I haven't heard of any of the other nominees... that's usually a good sign that the one you've heard of will win)

BEST SCREENPLAY
prediction: Tough one. Most of these are relatively high profile scripts, but none really stands out as being the frontrunner. They might want to honor Nicole Holofcener as a makeup award for when they shafted her in 2002 (for The Good Girl... ugh). Or they might go for the classy, restrained script for The Painted Veil. But I'm betting they continue their record of hip/spotty choices in this category and go for the oscar-buzzed (but not necessarily good) screenplay for Thank You For Smoking... it seems right up their alley in many ways.
alternate: The Painted Veil
look out for: Friends with Money

BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY
prediction: This one will likely go to oscar frontrunner Michael Arndt, even if Half Nelson's screenplay was better.
alternate: Anna Boden & Ryan Fleck, Half Nelson

BEST FEMALE LEAD
prediction: I find it hard to imagine this award not going to Guest darling Catherine O'Hara for her central role in For Your Consideration...
alternate: ...BUT I could be totally off; it wouldn't shock me to see Shareeka Epps take this.
look out for: Robin Wright Penn & Michelle Williams (they were both just nominated last year, and that momentum thing can work wonders)

BEST MALE LEAD
prediction: Ain't no way this isn't going to indie darling and oscar nominee Ryan Gosling for Half Nelson.
alternate: Don't need one; Gosling's got it sewn up.

BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE
prediction: This is hard, because once again, we have a category without any high profile contenders; this'd be much easier if either Shareeka Epps or Catherine O'Hara had been placed here. As it is, I'll go with Frances McDormand; she's by far the biggest name, and most widely loved, even if her Friends with Money perf's a walk in the park.
alternate: Mary Beth Hurt, The Dead Girl
look out for: Marcia Gay Harden, American Gun

BEST SUPPORTING MALE
prediction: Common wisdom would seem to point to Arkin here, but it's a different race with Paul Dano also present. I'm guessing they divert and go for it-boy Daniel Craig for his role in Infamous.
alternate: Alan Arkin
look out for: Paul Dano
om(f***ing)g, please no!: Channing Tatum

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
prediction: Guillermo Navarro, Pan's Labyrinth. Easy.

BEST DOCUMENTARY
prediction: My Country, My Country is the only oscar nominee in the bunch, and for that reason, I think it'll win here.

BEST FOREIGN FILM
prediction: Sans le presence de Pan's Labyrinth, The Lives of Others should take this in a walk. But why isn't Pan's Labyrinth here?

Alright, I'm not doing these BS "special award" things. Although I hope the producers of Shortbus win the Axiom award. They deserve something for having the balls and ingenuity to produce that film. And how 'bout the "special distinction" prize for David Lynch and Laura Dern? Pretty awesome, says me.

I think my final oscar predictions are the same as in the post below, actually. I'm seriously waffling on Arkin/Murphy and Lives/Labyrinth... I really don't know what to think, except that it'll be close. Obviously other races like best picture, score and editing are close, too, but I've basically settled on my choices there, regardless. But the other two categories are irking me. Thoughts?

UPDATE: Alright, I think I'm actually switching to Arkin, The Lives of Others AND An Inconvenient Truth for best song. Maybe this Dreamgirls vote split theory makes sense. Could Dreamgirls and Pan's each win only 3 oscars? Or even fewer? Dreamgirls is so darn hard to read... it could go home with 6 oscars or 2. Impossible to say how it'll go down.

Oscars, Oscars, Oscars...

So I think I may actually be attending an oscar party this year at school and/or watching the oscars with similarly oscar-obsessed friends. This never happens for me. I always just watch them alone in my room like a nerd. So that's exciting.

Also, I'm thinking of changing some predictions, namely swapping Arkin for Murphy and (gasp!) The Lives of Others for Pan's Labyrinth. People have been saying that the actual voters who have seen all five films will be voting for The Lives of Others, and I could see that happening. Even though you'd think Pan's Labyrinth, with its NSFC award and huge critical following, would not be in danger of this kind of "people who've actually seen all the nominees won't vote for it" downfall. But people are saying it is.

Also, I'd seriously consider predicting Babel or Letters for best picture, but that's just it... I wouldn't know which one to pick. I think they'll BOTH be getting a lot of votes and will thus cancel each other out (as I just explained in a comment on Nat's blog). Both are competing for the same socially conscious/liberal guilt votes. Were those votes all going to one nominee, I think it would win (as Crash did last year... shudders), but with both in the mix, I think the prize will ultimately go to the slow-and-steady awards stalwart that is The Departed.

The Departed = The Silence of the Lambs
Little Miss Sunshine = Beauty and the Beast
Babel + The Queen = Bugsy

I think 1991 is the closest parallel to this year.

what I'm inclined to predict right now

Note: These are NOT my final predictions. Well, I guess they might be. But I'm not committing to anything. Many of these are just me flipping a coin. I'm sure I'll waste a lot more time thinking about them before making my final choices.

Picture: The Departed (it just makes the most sense)

Director: Marty (a lock)

Actor: Forest Whitaker (but O'Toole could still take it)

Actress: Helen Mirren (the biggest lock in any category in years)

Supporting Actor: Eddie Murphy (by a nose over Arkin)

Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson (a lock, but less so than Mirren)

Original Screenplay: Little Miss Sunshine (pulling away from The Queen)

Adapted Screenplay: The Departed (a lock)

Editing: Babel (or United 93 or The Departed)

Cinematography: Children of Men (a lock)

Art Direction: Pan's Labyrinth (god, I hope so)

Costume Design: Dreamgirls (my heart says Prada, my brain says no)

Makeup: Pan's Labyrinth (a lock)

Visual Effects: Pirates (a lock)

Sound: Dreamgirls (a near-lock)

Sound Editing: Letters from Iwo Jima (its only award of the evening)

Score: Pan's Labyrinth (Pan's is hot hot hot...)

Song: Dreamgirls, "Listen" (it'll be close, but this song screams oscar)

Documentary: An Inconvenient Truth (a lock)

Animated: Cars (NOT a lock... Happy Feet is still in this)

Foreign: Pan's Labyrinth (The Lives of Others is possible, but not likely)

FINAL TALLY
Dreamgirls: 5
Pan's Labyrinth: 4
The Departed: 3
(no other film gets more than one)

That's what I'm thinking right now.

oh yeah, the BAFTAs...

I don't have much to say about these. Basically, I am through with this year's award season, other than the continued excitement over what will win Best Picture.

But anyway... I was surprised and disappointed that neither Emily Blunt nor Michael Sheen managed to win on their home turf. Instead, Jennifer Hudson cements her "mortal lock" status, and Alan Arkin wins his first big award. Is it a sign of things to come? Perhaps not. Sheen and McAvoy probably split the Brit bias vote, leaving Arkin to win with the oscar-correlate vote. Doesn't mean he'll actually win the oscar over Murphy, who wasn't nominated here. But this award cements him as Murphy's main competition, which helps. More anti-Murphy votes will be thrown his way.

Cool to see Greengrass win the BAFTA. I would've thought United would win Best British Film, but they have him this award instead. Nice.

Also nice to see The Last King of Scotland get some love outside of Forest Whitaker... though I watched it again the other night, and it isn't nearly as great as I thought the first time... oh well. It's still cool that other aspects of the film are being recognized, cause Forest certainly wasn't the only good thing about it.

And of course, The Queen took Best Film, as expected... though it didn't win much else.

Its loss to LMS in the screenplay category is particularly telling. If The Queen can't win the screenplay oscar HERE, of all places, then I doubt it can win the oscar. It seems that to most people, The Queen = the Helen Mirren show. Period.

Anyway, those are my thoughts. Now it's back to my busy busy life. Gaaaaaaaaahhhh...

The Departed vs. Little Miss Sunshine

This seems to be what Best Picture is coming down to (though Babel, Letters or even The Queen still wouldn't surprise me much at all).

Departed and Sunshine have shared all the guild love (DGA & WGA for the former, PGA, WGA & SAG for the latter). Everyone likes The Departed, and it's got quite the lock-down on the writing and directing oscars, which says a lot.

But a lot of people LOVE Little Miss Sunshine, and it's now looking likely to edge out The Queen in its own screenplay race, despite the latter's early season dominance of the category (it won LAFCA, NYFCC, NSFC, and the globe... and not just as best original but as THE BEST screenplay of the year).

Really tough call. Right now I'd say The Departed has the edge, only because it has a presence across the board (directing, writing, acting, editing) and is basically a lock to win in writing and directing. But LMS just keeps winning things... I'm feeling a groundswell of love...

We'll see.

SAG predictions + actuals

Wow, how boring. But I'm glad Little Miss Sunshine won.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
My prediction: Peter O'Toole (Venus)
My alternate: Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland)
Actual winner: Forest Whitaker

POST-CEREMONY: OK. So... I guess he's winning the oscar. But will they really send O'Toole home empty-handed AGAIN? I just find that hard to imagine.

PRE-CEREMONY: Alright. So I know I've gone on and on about how Will Smith had the best chance to win the SAG because his film is widely seen, etc. but I'm rescinding now. I've heard the news about the 100,000 Venus screeners sent out to the entire SAG membership, and that is enough to give me confidence that he'll take this. Smith may be seen as too light/mainstream to win this, so even though I think he's still very much in the running in a not-so-distant 3rd place, I think it'll go to O'Toole or Whitaker. O'Toole has the edge due both to the inundation of screeners and to his being a legend who's never won a SAG, playing an actor.


BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
My prediction: Helen Mirren (The Queen)
My alternate: Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada)
Actual winner: Helen Mirren

POST-CEREMONY: Yawn. Nice speech, though. She's great, I can handle her winning.

PRE-CEREMONY: I'm sticking with Mirren here, but it's not a runaway. SAG has been known to buck trends in their voting, and The Queen couldn't manage any other nominations with them. Streep is the most likely spoiler, since her film is very widely seen and every actor I know worships Meryl Streep and LOVES her in this movie. I think it'll be closer than people realize, at least in this particular race. But I still know a frontrunner when I see one. Mirren it is.


BEST PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
My prediction: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Departed)
My alternate: Alan Arkin (Little Miss Sunshine)
Actual winner: Eddie Murphy

POST-CEREMONY: That's weird, I really thought they'd honor Leo. Strange that Departed won nothing. I think it's the hyper-masculine factor. Women don't vote for it. So will Murphy actually win the oscar? Probably.

PRE-CEREMONY: This one seems pretty simple to me. Leo has 3 nominations, will NOT be winning for Blood Diamond, and is having a hell of a year, with this being the last chance he has to win something for The Departed. I think he'll take this one, throwing a big wrench in the oscar race. Especially if The Departed loses best ensemble (which people seem to think it will), then I really can't imagine Leo losing here. The obvious backup pick would be Alan Arkin (veteran, in loved film, has never won), but don't think they'll be honoring 3 (!) old crones in one night. Murphy also could continue his streak and win it (he'd be my 3rd choice), but I'm sticking with Leo. And since his performance is easily the best in the category, I'll be happy if he wins.


BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
My prediction: Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls)
My alternate: Abigail Breslin (Little Miss Sunshine)
Actual winner: Jennifer Hudson

POST-CEREMONY: Yeah, duh. No more surprises this year, except best picture.

PRE-CEREMONY: I'm sticking with JHud on this one. Her endless run of wins shows no sign up of letting up now, best pic snub or no best pic snub. I do have some reservations about the way actors in particular will feel about her perf, which is the only reason I'm not 100% sure she'll win this. But I'm not stupid. I know a frontrunner when I see one (see also: Queen Mirren). Still, there's an obvious alternate choice in Abigail Breslin, and I wouldn't be shocked to see her emerge with a trophy... or two.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A CAST IN A MOTION PICTURE
My prediction: Little Miss Sunshine
My alternate: The Departed
Actual winner: Little Miss Sunshine

POST-CEREMONY: Yay! Expected, but I do love them so. I still don't think the film can win the oscar, but it would be pretty cool if it did.

PRE-CEREMONY: Very much a two-horse race. For a LONG time, I thought The Departed would ride its huge star wattage and general awards strength to a win here. But lately, Little Miss Sunshine has been picking up major steam, due in no small part to its BFCA win for best ensemble. Expect to see that repeated here. This is a true ensemble film, with truly great ensemble work. I'll be so happy if it wins.

So I got 3/5 in total. Pretty bad. But I felt like taking chances. Really, I'm pretty bored with this awards season now. At least the best pic race is still interesting.

My thoughts on JHud

For the record, this began as a long comment on Nathaniel's blog, as part of the debate going on there about the best supporting actress nominees and particularly the merits of Jennifer Hudson's performance. But it just got so out of control and long that I thought it made the most sense to just create my own post out of it. Maybe it'll start a new discussion here.

Anyway, some have made comments that it's unfair and inappropriate for JHud to have an oscar when she has no intention of building a film career. I don't agree with that sentiment; further aspirations in film should not be prerequisite to winning awards. In fact, somebody pointed out the "supporting actress curse" and how it might as well be set on Hudson since she doesn't seem likely to pursue a film career anyway. I'd rather she get her oscar and go on to success in music than have Breslin suffer the same fate as Tatum O'Neal and Anna Paquin (i.e. peak at age 10). So I'm really fine with JHud winning. Clearly she's very loved. I just think Breslin and the others (haven't yet seen Blanchett) all give superior performances.

There are just things you learn from experience making films and acting onstage that help you to smooth out the rough edges JHud shows here. Generally when actors make a big film debut, they've already had big careers onstage, or at least been trained or had many years of amateur roles. This is why you sometimes see these huge debuts from people like Barbra Streisand, Better Midler and Julie Andrews. But Jennifer Hudson had NEVER ACTED BEFORE IN HER LIFE. And I'm sorry, but I know as an actor that no one is brilliant the first time they ever do anything, even if they're chock full of natural talent. And she shows a lot of promise, and has big presence, but that's not the same thing as giving a great performance.

It takes a true genius to instantly have a sense of how to act brilliantly without any training or experience whatsoever. Like perhaps whatshername the 4-year-old from the french film in 1997. And I'm sure Streep was pretty great the moment she first set foot onstage. But JHud is not there yet.

Abigail Breslin actually, for all her 10 years of age, has actually had far more acting experience than JHud. And it shows. She, I would argue, has a really potent natural gift, but I'm sure she wasn't brilliant either on the very first thing she did. Her perf may come off as "just cute" but there's not a false moment in it, and she makes brilliant choices throughout, and actually displays oodles of range, for a 10-year-old or for an adult.

Anyway, my main point is that I think it's sort of demeaning to the thousands of actors who go to training programs and devote their lives to improving their craft, when the whole world goes crazy for this girl with zilch experience and a great voice, especially since it's far from a perfect performance.

But I enjoyed her a lot, and she's always humble and grateful and fun, so I hold nothing against her. Just against this huge groundswell of love without any sense of critical perspective on her work.

Actually, a lot of the problems with the performance are Condon's fault. She may well have been brilliant if he'd made a better film than he did. But the obvious writing and rushed, sloppy direction detracted a lot from whatever the perf might've been (it's rather shocking to think that Dreamgirls was made by the same person who directed Gods and Monsters). In fact, as a non-actress, JHud probably followed a lot of direction from Condon that was not necessarily good.

I don't know why I'm obsessing so much over this. Partly because I always hate it when everyone is going wild praising something I don't feel to be award-worthy. Partly because I was expecting better, and really wanted to love JHud and the film, and feel sort of personally betrayed by its mediocrity. Partly because my loyalties still lie with Jennifer Holliday, who I think is transcendent (both acting and singing) in my favorite YouTube clip. Party because I as a singer/actor feel that I catch things most people don't about performances like this. Partly because I as a singer/actor am put off by the lack of regard for training and experience in what we worship in our "flavor of the month" fad-based pop culture. Partly because I as a singer/actor am a bit jealous. But I'm just starting to get sick of this "JHud can do no wrong" vibe.

My own reservations about this performance (again, as an actor) are why I'm less than fully confident in Hudson's chances for the SAG award. The actors could go hog-wild for the VERY actor-friendly Little Miss Sunshine and give it all three awards. But probably not. Expect JHud to win the SAG tomorrow night.

P.S. SAG predictions up soon.

Oscar nominations video!

Yay! I found an online video of the nominations announcement! Why didn't I think of this right when I woke up at 1:00pm? I could've totally seen the video with all the suspense, and without having to get up early. Damn.



Anyway, here are my top ten favorite moments:

10) When I heard Abigail Breslin's name called (this would've been way further up the list if I hadn't already known).

9) When, during the best picture announcement, I heard the words "Letters from Iwo Jima" instead of the word "Dreamgirls" (hey, I'm trying to pretend I was hearing these for the first time).

8) When I realized that both Mexican screenwriters are named Guillermo (I had never made that connection before... yeah, I'm stupid, so what?).

7) When Sid Ganis mispronounced "Cuaron."

6) When the producers of 2 of the 5 best pic nominees were announced as "nominees to be determined."

5) When Salma struggled to pronounce "Denmark."

4) When Salma said "best foreign film language" instead of "best foreign language film."

3) When Salma yelled "YES!" at the announcement of Penélope's nomination (note how badly Sid Ganis pronounced "Volver" and how it slipped by virtually unnoticed amid Salma's outburst).

2) When Salma got beautifully emotional at the announcement of "Mexico, Pan's Labyrinth" and then suddenly went cold at the announcement of "Canada, Water" (note how she STILL looked a little bit dazed about something right before announcing best picture - I'm snarkily hoping it was the Volver snub, but maybe she was just tired).

1) When Salma totally lost it and started crying when announcing Babel as a best picture nominee (saying the full mouthful "Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu" for the second time). Her honest emotion upon seeing her home country honored is touching.

And I had no problem with her yelp of joy for Cruz. It was a POSITIVE gesture; she wasn't dissing anyone. It's not like she was noticeably displeased with some non-Mexican nominee beating a Mexican nominee-- oh wait, she HAS done that before, hasn't she? Back when Nowhere in Africa beat El Crimen del Padre Amaro in 2003. Whatever, her obvious pro-Mexican bias is totally entertaining, albeit unprofessional at times.

And seriously, do they always go out and get Salma to announce things when hispanics look likely to win? She got to announce Gustavo Santaolalla's win last year, too, and I know she has no other connection to the "best original score" category. I feel like that was deliberate.

But anyway, good show. I enjoyed this. I'm really glad I found the video.

OK, Dreamgirls did NOT get snubbed because it was "gay"... unless you mean THAT kind of "gay."

I just read Modern Fabulousity's take on the nominations/snubs, and I felt I had to post something on that subject here, because... well, I very strongly disagree.

I am gay as all get-out, I was as pissed as anyone last year when Brokeback lost, I watch Jennifer Holliday's rendition of "And I Am Tellin' You" daily (just check my sidebar), and I wanted to love Dreamgirls. But I came out of it disappointed. And I never would've put it on my ballot for best picture. It was just shoddy filmmaking. And though I was a bit harsh on it in my review (I've softened a bit after a second viewing), I still maintain that this snub was entirely deserved, and had nothing to do with racism or sexism, or especially homophobia.

Oscarwise, Dreamgirls was sort of an amalgam of Cold Mountain and Walk The Line; it was certainly not Brokeback Mountain. It was a case of too much hype too long before release, with too little quality to show for it. It was less than the sum of its parts.

What I find most gratifying, though, is that what (I think) was rejected in Dreamgirls is what I hate most about all bad musicals: the idea that flashiness and catchiness can make up for shoddy dialogue and story. Everyone I know who dislikes musicals does do so because they think musicals inherently use their musical elements as a crutch. They think that just because musicals are glitzy and have hummable tunes, they must also always be shallow, clichéd, obvious, etc. And the worst musicals absolutely are.

Now, Dreamgirls is hardly one of "the worst musicals," but of this charge, it is guilty. It's a mediocre film dressed up as an oscar nominee. I did enjoy it (marginally), but it also embodies everything I hate about bad musicals. Without the music, it'd have nothing. The best musicals (note: I LIVE for great musicals) use music to heighten the impact of an already golden experience; they supplement great filmmaking with great music. Not surprisingly, when people call musicals "gay" (pejoratively), they're usually referring to their shallow, loud, gaudy aspects... the qualities they share with flamboyant gay men. And while I concede that these qualities (shallow, loud, and gaudy) are often associated with my sexual orientiation, I wish they weren't, and I absolutely agree that they're unappealing, at least when expressed without irony (and in Dreamgirls, they certainly are; in that sense, Dreamgirls is very "gay").

So even though it would've been nice to see another musical get oscar-nominated and get a whole bunch of new musicals green-lit, the pleasure would've been dampened by the fact that those new musicals probably would've been just like this one: shoddy, shallow, and far from best-picture-worthy. And I'm not just saying that because Bill Condon is gay.

And for the record, I'd die of happiness if Breslin somehow beat Hudson to the oscar. Seriously. Give Hudson a grammy. But Breslin gave a much better performance. Little Miss Abby has a hold on my heart (and my vote).

"What does 'a-la-modee' mean?"

GOLDEN.

final Oscar predictions + actuals

The "big 8" categories are on the charts (all charts are now down to five), and the rest of the categories are right here. Let's see how I did (yikes!):

BEST FILM EDITING (3/5=60%)
Babel
The Departed
Dreamgirls
The Queen
United 93
(alt. Little Miss Sunshine)

...and the shockers were: Blood Diamond and Children of Men.

And boy, were they shockers. This category has been veering away from best picture lately. Good for it. And I LOVE that Dreamgirls was snubbed here. That editing was a mess, despite the occasional snappy musical number.

For the win? Babel vs. The Departed vs. United 93

I actually wanna say United takes it, since the other two editors have already won. But this race will be tight.


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY (2/5=40%)
Apocalypto
Babel
Children of Men
Dreamgirls
The Illusionist
(alt. Curse of the Golden Flower)

...and the shockers were: The Black Dahlia, Pan's Labyrinth and The Prestige.

Like, whoa. I really bombed here. Good for them, though, for steering clear of best picture nominees, especially Dreamgirls... oh wait, it wasn't nominated. Hee.

Anyway, I'd like to see Children of Men take this, and it probably will. It's closest competition is probably Pan's Labyrinth, but that will be winning enough other categories that it won't need to win here.


BEST ART DIRECTION (2/5=40%)
Children of Men
Curse of the Golden Flower
Dreamgirls
Marie-Antoinette
Pan's Labyrinth
(alt. The Prestige)

...and the shockers were: The Good Shepherd and Pirates of the Carribbean: Dead Man's Chest.

And those really were shockers. Lotsa crazy stuff in these here tech categories. And of course, I got a shitty score here again.

I assume this is between Dreamgirls and Pan's Labyrinth, and in truth I don't much care for either in this category (where is Children of Men???), but I'd rather see Pan's take it than see a repeat of the totally unnecessary Chicago win in this category four years ago. OK, Dreamgirls isn't Chicago, but it's close enough (please don't win!).


BEST COSTUME DESIGN (3/5=60%)
The Black Dahlia
Curse of the Golden Flower
Dreamgirls
The Illusionist
Marie-Antoinette
(alt. The Painted Veil)

...and the shockers were: The Devil Wears Prada and The Queen.

Yay for Prada here! Shouldn't have been so cynical about its chances. This is a nice nominee list overall, but I'm not sure what will actually win it. I would've said Dreamgirls (and it probably still has the edge here), but now that it's down and out as a best picture contender, might Marie or Curse or Prada swoop in and take it? Hmmm... my bet is Dreamgirls, but I sense an upset in the works here.


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS (2/3=67%)
Night at the Museum
Pirates of the Carribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Superman Returns
(alt. X-Men: The Last Stand)

...and the shocker was: Poseidon.

OK, so that wasn't really a shocker. Shoulda listened to Kris Tapley.

But anyway, I assume Pirates is headed for the win here... even though Superman deserves it. And don't even get my started on The Fountain...


BEST MAKE-UP (2/3=67%)
Apocalypto
Pan's Labyrinth
Pirates of the Carribbean: Dead Man's Chest
(alt. Click)

Well, I got Click as an alternate! I think that counts for something.

Anyway, weird that they jettisoned Pirates here... I assumed it was another example of the makeup branch having issues with makeup enhanced by effects work. Whatever. This one's Pan's to lose.


BEST SOUND (4/5=80%)
Blood Diamond
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Flags of Our Fathers
Pirates of the Carribbean: Dead Man's Chest
(alt. Babel)

...and the shocker was: Apocalypto.

OK, again, not a real shocker. Just a bad decision on my part. Don't know why I believed so much in The Departed here.

I assume this is going to Dreamgirls, with Blood Diamond and Flags each getting their share of votes.


BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING (2/5=40%)
Cars
The Departed
Flags of Our Fathers
Pirates of the Carribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Superman Returns
(alt. World Trade Center)

...and the shockers were: Apocalypto, Blood Diamond and Letters from Iwo Jima.

OUCH. You'd think this category would be easier. Oh well.

It's Flags vs. Letters for the win. Letters will probably take it, best pic nominee that it is.


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE (2/5=40%)
Apocalypto
The Fountain
Notes on a Scandal
The Painted Veil
The Queen
(alt. The Illusionist)

...and the shockers were: Babel, The Good German and Pan's Labyrinth.

OUCH. I SUCK. And so does the music branch. WHERE are The Painted Veil and The Fountain??? Sigh. But maybe Desplat will still win for his other film (thank the lord they finally acknowledged him here, anyway, even if it is for one of his least inspired efforts).

The win seems wide open at this point. Pan's, Notes or Queen could easily take it... tough to predict, this one.


BEST ORIGINAL SONG (3/5=60%)
Cars ("Our Town")
Dreamgirls ("Listen")
Happy Feet ("Song of the Heart")
An Inconvenient Truth ("I Need to Wake Up")
Little Miss Sunshine ("'Til the End of Time")
(alt. Dreamgirls ("Love You I Do")

...and the shocker was Dreamgirls (AGAIN, for the song, "Patience")

OK, not so terrible here. I did pretty well, considering. Didn't think they'd snub the globe-winning song, but then I guess they didn't know it'd win the globe when they were voting, did they?

It's Etheridge vs. Krieger for the win. If the Dreamgirls people make it clear that "Listen" is the song they want to win, then its chances are pretty darn good... but I'd love to see An Inconvenient Truth take this.

Anyway, this'll be a great lineup to listen to during the broadcast. Good on AMPAS in this category... though I wish "'Til the End of Time" could've scored here. I do love that song.


BEST ANIMATED FILM (3/3=100%)
Cars
Happy Feet
Monster House
(alt. Over the Hedge)

YAY! My first perfect category, outside of acting. And Monster House deserved that last spot. Good show.


BEST FOREIGN FILM (4/5=80%)
Days of Glory (Algeria)
The Lives of Others (Germany)
Pan's Labyrinth (Mexico)
Volver (Spain)
Water (Canada)
(alt. Black Book (The Netherlands))

...and the shocker was: After the Wedding (Denmark).

OK. I mean... it sucks, I know. Volver totally deserved to be here. In fact, it deserved to be in the best pic category and totally deserved to WIN here. But I don't think this means they hate Pedro. I think they just wanted to spread the wealth. They've given Pedro a lot already, and other foreign filmmakers deserve love, too. At least that's what I'm trying to tell myself. Cause I'm PISSED that Volver is not here.


BEST DOCUMENTARY (4/5=80%)
Deliver Us From Evil
An Inconvenient Truth
Iraq in Fragments
Jesus Camp
Jonestown: The Life and Death of the People's Temple
(alt. Shut Up and Sing)

...and the shocker was: My Country, My Country.

OK, so I did pretty well here. In all honesty, I was just copying Kris Tapley's predictions. I didn't even know this My Country thing even existed. But it's probably good.

My prediction score in the "big 8" categories was 33/40 or 82.5%, and I'm pretty happy with that (better than Kris Tapley!). But I'm not even gonna bother calculating a total score for ALL the categories... that's just too much trouble, and it would bring my score down anyway. I'd rather just pretend I got 82.5% acress the board.

Anyway, now let's check my projected nomination totals vs. the actual ones. My predictions are on the right; the actual totals are on the left, in bold. Best pic nominees' titles are also in bold:

8 - Dreamgirls (9)
7 - Babel (7)
6 - The Queen (6)
6 - Pan's Labyrinth (3)
5 - Blood Diamond (2)
5 - The Departed (8)
4 - Little Miss Sunshine (6)
4 - Letters from Iwo Jima (0)
4 - Notes on a Scandal (4)
4 - Pirates of the Carribbean: Dead Man's Chest (4)
3 - Apocalypto (3)
3 - Little Children (3)
3 - Children of Men (3)

...and a whole bunch of other films with 2 nominations each.


I actually got many of the totals right. But it seems I either got it right or misread a film's support completely. I (along with most people) very much underestimated Blood Diamond, Pan's Labyrinth, and Letters from Iwo Jima, and I also overshot significantly on The Departed and a tad on Little Miss Sunshine. I'm proud of predicting that Dreamgirls wouldn't reach the double digits, though even I never thought it would be snubbed in the big race.

And speaking of the big race... what exactly is supposed to win this thing? With the presumed frontrunner GONE, another presumed frontrunner crippled (without a director nod) and yet another (The Departed) dogged by a low nomination total, what will rise up? Letters? Does it have a chance? It has the lowest nomination total of all (apart from Little Miss Sunshine), but I have a feeling it'll be seeing a huge surge of support in the coming weeks). Or could Babel (the nomination leader among the nominees) or The Queen (the runner-up) actually take it? What a roller-coaster ride this best picture race has been. It really is a wide open race.

PGA awards

So apparently Cars won the PGA for best animated film... best picture winner TBA.

For the record, I am predicting The Departed to take it, and I'm pretty confident that it will.

UPDATE: Little Miss Sunshine wins! And I couldn't be happier. I remember thinking it had a better chance than people were giving it credit for here, but I never thought it would actually win. My bad. I may be changing my oscar predictions now, putting Dayton & Faris in the top five after all (though this award has no direct bearing on whether they'll be nominated or not).

And really, I'm so happy LMS won here, both because it's my personal favorite of the nominees (though with a gun to my head I might admit that The Departed is a better film) and because this makes the race that much more interesting. This is a good sign that LMS could win the SAG and WGA as well. And if that happens and then, say, BAFTA goes for The Queen... well, the best pic race will be VERY interesting, far moreso than it's been in a while.

And this kind of "no clear frontrunner" climate is exactly what something like Sunshine would need to win.

OMG I love this movie. I think I'm buying it now.