Tuesday, January 02, 2007

PGA & SAG nominations, with my predictions

Here are the SAG & PGA predictions and actuals. Actual nominations are in bold. SAG first:

Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond
Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson
Peter O'Toole, Venus
Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland

alternate: Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat

don't count out: Ken Watanabe, Letters from Iwo Jima

it could happen: Greg Kinnear, Little Miss Sunshine

POST-NOMS: Got 'em all. But it wasn't that hard. Tough to say whether the oscars will repeat this lineup (with Leo in for The Departed, probably). DiCaprio and Gosling aren't safe, but I'd say they have the edge right now over Cohen and Watanabe. Oh, and I think Smith will win the SAG. His film has already hit $100 million and will only continue to make more money, whereas O'Toole and Whitaker's film have made approximately $0 combined.

PRE-NOMS: I feel like I'm wrong with my top five. I just have this inkling that Cohen will make it, though I'm leaving him out because it's not really a traditional "acting" performance, veering more into improv comedy, which is arguably even more difficult, but whatever. I also think that Kinnear could get a surprise nod a la Peter Dinklage in 2003 (I think Little Miss Sunshine will go over big with SAG, and I believe Kinnear's being submitted as a lead), but I wouldn't know who to drop. I hope they nominate Gosling, though. He hasn't been getting enough love.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Smith ultimately take this; of the presumed frontrunners, his film is far and away the most widely seen... but who knows, he could also be a surprise snub (they snubbed him for Ali in 2001).

Penélope Cruz, Volver
Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
Helen Mirren, The Queen
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet, Little Children

alternate: Maggie Gyllenhaal, SherryBaby

don't count out: Annette Bening, Running with Scissors

it could happen: Naomi Watts, The Painted Veil

POST-NOMS: Yay, 5/5. Not much to say here. Except that I really hope Streep upsets Mirren for the win, just so there'll be a little drama. I think it could happen.

PRE-NOMS: The predicted five have been pretty dominant so far, but I don't think it's out of the question that one of the lower three could supplant one of them. I have this irrational fear that Cruz will miss out here because she's foreign... but probably not.

Obviously Mirren is the frontrunner here, but I would NOT rule out an upset by Streep. Her film has made much much more money, and they love her. Depp had won zlich before taking this award in 2003. It could happen. I might even predict it when the time comes.

Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
Steve Carrell, Little Miss Sunshine
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Departed
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Jack Nicholson, The Departed

alternate: Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children (yay!!!)

don't count out:
Brad Pitt, Babel
Michael Sheen, The Queen
Ben Affleck, Hollywoodland
Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamond

it could happen: Mark Wahlberg, The Departed

POST-NOMS: Fine, so the Steve Carrell thing was stupid. Leo f***ed it up. And f***ed up Jack, too, apparently. I kind of had a feeling that if Leo got in for Blood Diamond, then Djimon would make it, too, but I didn't listen to that feeling. Shame. Anyway, Sheen is starting look very shaky. He hasn't been nominated ANYwhere. Jack will still get in for oscar, as will Eddie, and probably Alan Arkin. The last two spots are a crapshoot. They could go anywhere. And the win is up for grabs, too.

PRE-NOMS: Leo's Departed performance was apparently submitted in this category, so I'm predicting him for a double nod (and possible win here). I also think Steve Carrell will pop up here randomly. I really do. SAG picks out totally random people from ensembles they like (remember Chris Cooper for Seabiscuit!?), and everybody loves Steve Carrell. I wanted to predict Jackie Haley here as well - but he's been getting a lot of critics' awards lately - but this category's crowded, and Leo bumped him out. I'm not at all confident in these choices, though. Any of the alternates I listed are just as likely.

As for the win, I assume it's Jack vs. Leo vs. Eddie. Tough to say how it'll go between those three... but I think if Leo's nominated, he wins it.

Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal
Emily Blunt, The Devil Wears Prada
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
Toni Collette, Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls

alternate: Catherine O'Hara, For Your Consideration

don't count out: Adriana Barazza & Rinko Kikuchi, Babel

it could happen: Vera Farmiga, The Departed

POST-NOMS: Yeah, so of course the Babel girls got in. Whatever. This will probably be the oscar lineup. But Emily Blunt & Catherine O'Hara are breathing down Abby's neck. Honestly, though, I hope Abby makes it in... I think she totally deserves it.

PRE-NOMS: OK, here's where I go out on a limb. I don't expect to be right with these predictions... both Rinko & Adriana will probably make it. Something's telling me only one of them will make it (like when they dropped Maggie Smith for Gosford Park), but I wouldn't know which one. I just want to believe that Abby, Toni and Emily will all place here, because I love them. I actually really do believe in Toni... she's another surprise that I see coming. And I really think the actors will like Prada more than most people realize. Which brings me to...

(Brad Pitt, Cate Blanchett, Rinko Kikuchi, Adriana Barazza, etc.)
The Devil Wears Prada
(Meryl Streep, Anne Hathaway, Stanley Tucci, Emily Blunt, etc.)
The Departed
(Leonardo DiCaprio, Matt Damon, Jack Nicholson, etc.)
Little Miss Sunshine
(Greg Kinnear, Toni Collette, Abigail Breslin, Alan Arkin, etc.)
United 93
(lots of unknown actors)

alternate: Dreamgirls
(Jamie Foxx, Beyoncé Knowles, Eddie Murphy, Jennifer Hudson, etc.)

don't count out: Little Children
(Kate Winslet, Patrick Wilson, Jennifer Connelly, Jackie Earle Haley, etc.)

it could happen: A Prairie Home Companion
(Meryl Streep, Lily Tomlin, Lindsay Lohan, Kevin Kline, etc.)

it could happen, too, apparently: Bobby
(Sharon Stone, Demi Moore, Elijah Wood, Lindsay Lohan, etc.)

POST-NOMS: OK, so I knew it was pretty out there to predict a Dreamgirls snub, but I really wanted it to happen, and thought maybe the SAG voters did too. Whatever. I don't know why I didn't predict Bobby even for an alternate, though. I STILL thought it was dead. Dammit. I guess I should see it now. But is it even still in theaters? Not really.

Anyway, The Departed will win this. But I think Little Miss Sunshine deserves it (by a nose), so I'll be hoping for an upset.

PRE-NOMS: Going out on a limb again. That's right, I am leaving off Dreamgirls. I think it could be the kind of shock exclusion that Cold Mountain was in 2003. The acting in it is just very uneven and not too impressive in general. And Jennifer Hudson sort of outshines everyone else, even Eddie Murphy to some extent. And of course Beyoncé is problematic, and Foxx couldn't even get a globe nod, and... well, I think it could miss. And I really and truly believe that The Devil Wears Prada will hit. This is a great example of a whole troup of actors (even Simon Baker) working together to elevate a rather mediocre script, with great results. There's really not a weak link in this whole cast (not even Simon Baker) and I think they deserve the nomination. As do the United 93 crew.

ARGH. The sensible part of me wants to drop Carrell and Collette, and replace them with maybe Wahlberg and Barazza... and also to drop Blunt, and replace her with Kikuchi... and also to put Dreamgirls back in ensemble. But I WON'T DO IT. I must have bragging rights if my crazy predictions are correct.

Alright, now for the PGA, quickly. My predictions were:

The Departed
The Devil Wears Prada
Letters from Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine

alternate: The Queen

don't count out: Babel, Flags of Our Fathers, United 93

it could happen: Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan

POST-NOMS: I got 3/5 (60%). Actual nominees are in bold. I'm rather shocked they went for Babel since it made no money at all, but I guess they really liked it. Ditto The Queen. I assume The Departed will win this, too, but they might be stupid and go for Dreamgirls. Or maybe even something else. We'll see.

PRE-NOMS: Again, I think Prada will surprise. It's been doing so all season, so why stop now? Though even I'm not ballsy enough to predict a Dreamgirls snub here. It just won't happen. I think The Queen is the one that'll go down; it's just not a "big" film, not a huge moneymaker, etc. I do think Little Miss Sunshine will land a spot here for being a sleeper hit, and for just being really good. But of course there are many other possibilities as well.

So, that's it. Balls out. I hope I'm right about some these surprises. We'll see. What are YOUR thoughts?


Blogger Kamikaze Camel said...

I am also predicting Devil Wears Prada for SAG ensemble and PGA (I think either that or Borat but not both). PGA cares about the $$$ and those two definitely got tonnes of it, but I doubt both can make it.

I am scared though that the PGA will go for BOTH Flags and Iwo Jima as some revolutionary (lol) effort in filmmaking.

The reason Jackie Earl Hadley will probably get in? Kid actor in a big acclaimed comeback. I'm predicting him too.

If any of the Babel girls get it I think it'll be Barraza. Even though she doesn't do anything in the movie. I'm still baffled over how the love for Barraza and Pitt's performances. They're so... nondescript.

1:17 AM  

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