Thursday, December 14, 2006

Golden Globe noms + my predictions

For the record, I really did post these BEFORE the nomination announcement, so I get whatever credit is due. The titles listed are my predictions; actuals are in bold:

The Departed
Little Children
The Queen
United 93
alt. Flags of Our Fathers & The Last King of Scotland

...and the shocker was: Bobby

I thought Bobby was done... especially since the HFPA didn't even nominate the similar Crash here last year. Oh well. Glad my Little Children hunch was right, though... Kate is now in it for the long haul.

And doesn't it look like Babel might actually win this? It is really the HFPA's kind of thing...

The Devil Wears Prada
Little Miss Sunshine
A Prairie Home Companion
alt. Stranger Than Fiction & Thank You For Smoking

So Prairie got snubbed. Oh well. Other than that, it went as expected, except that Dreamgirls and Sunshine both have FAR less support than we all thought. Dreamgirls will still take it, but perhaps not in a runaway, as was previously thought.

BEST ACTOR - DRAMA (4/5=80%)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Departed)
Ryan Gosling (Half Nelson)
Peter O'Toole (Venus)
Will Smith (The Pursuit of Happiness)
Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland)
alt. Ken Watanabe (Letters from Iwo Jima) & Hugh Jackman (The Fountain)

...and the shocker was: Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond.

Not that shocking, I guess. I thought of predicting him, but double nominations at the globes are quite rare. This probably helps his chances with oscar, since I don't think they're going anywhere near Blood Diamond and the double nom only gives him more visibility. Too bad Gosling and all the other potential 5th slotters got snubbed here.

It's still O'Toole vs. Whitaker. Smith seems to be out of the running for the win (will he even be nominated now that his film's tanking with critics? hmm...).

Penélope Cruz (Volver)
Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandal)
Nicole Kidman (Fur: An Imaginary Portrait of Diane Arbus)
Helen Mirren (The Queen)
Kate Winslet (Little Children)
alt. Maggie Gyllenhaal (Sherrybaby) & Cate Blanchett (The Good German)

Not surprised by the Maggie inclusion. It seems that they COULD in fact resist voting for Kidman again, and instead went with the hip young thing (it is a bit weird and unnerving though that the HFPA have abandoned artsy Nicole but stayed firmly behind dingbat Renée). But it's all kind of moot anyway, since Streep has that spot reserved at the oscars.

I assume this race is Mirren's to lose. Could she lose it? (*cough*CRUZ*cough*)

Sacha Baron Cohen (Borat)
Johnny Depp (Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest)
Aaron Eckhart (Thank You For Smoking)
Will Ferrell (Stranger Than Fiction)
Jamie Foxx (Dreamgirls)
alt. Gael Garcia Bernal (The Science of Sleep) & Richard Griffiths (The History Boys)

...and the shocker was: Chiwetel Ejiofor (Kinky Boots).

And WHAT a shock. I figured if someone unexpected would sneak in, it would be Bernal for his lovely work in Gondry's Science of Sleep. And I figured that if that happened (not that I thought it would), it would be at the expense of "been there, done that" Depp and not "look how much cooler I am than you" Foxx. I am SHOCKED beyond shocked that Foxx missed here. It could just be distaste for him personally... or it could be that they just don't really love Dreamgirls that much. Probably both. How unexpected...

This award will go to Cohen, btw. His only real competition was snubbed.

Annette Bening (Running With Scissors)
Abigail Breslin (Little Miss Sunshine)
Beyoncé Knowles (Dreamgirls)
Catherine O'Hara (For Your Consideration)
Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada)
alt. Renée Zellweger (Miss Potter) & Gretchen Mol (The Notorious Bettie Page)

...and the shocker was: Toni Collette (Little Miss Sunshine).

OK, I assume the Collette nod is just because they wanted to throw her a bone. She IS after all great and always underrated by everyone. But I didn't realize she was even being considered for this category. It's very strange to see her put here instead of Breslin (the heart of the film). Not surprised by anyone else, though... even the god-awful Renée. And I thought the Cinderella Man snub meant they were over her...

It's Beyoncé vs. Streep for the win. And NO, it's not all locked up. I'll be on the edge of my seat when they call this one. Go, Streep, go! Please don't let it be 1991 all over again.

Bill Condon (Dreamgirls)
Clint Eastwood (Letters from Iwo Jima)
Paul Greengrass (United 93)
Alejandro Gonzales Innaritu (Babel)
Martin Scorcese (The Departed)
alt. Clint Eastwood (Flags of Our Fathers) & Stephen Frears (The Queen)

No real shock inclusions here, but one SHOCK exclusion in Bill Condon. I can't believe they passed him over. This is really bad news for Dreamgirls. If he can get snubbed here, he can most definitely be snubbed for oscar. It's the musical curse (I don't get this particular curse at all, though, since musicals are arguably the most challenging of film genres to direct).

It's Clint vs. Clint vs. Marty here... I expect Marty to win it mostly because Clint should cancel himself out.

The Departed
Little Children
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
alt. Letters from Iwo Jima & Volver

...and the shocker was: Notes on a Scandal.

OK, it's not really a shocker - they did after all nominate Marber for Closer - but I'm still a bit surprised it's here. I almost had it as an alternate, but then thought one of the foreign films had a better shot. Ah well. Happy to see Little Children make the cut here. In fact, I think it could win it... but really, this one could go anywhere...

Ben Affleck (Hollywoodland)
Eddie Murphy (Dreamgirls)
Jack Nicholson (The Departed)
Brad Pitt (Babel)
Mark Wahlberg (The Departed)
alt. Bill Nighy (Notes on a Scandal) & Alan Arkin (Little Miss Sunshine)

BINGO. This is where I get to brag. The shocker to many was Mark Wahlberg but I totally saw it coming. It's an all-movie-star lineup. I had a feeling that's how they'd go. Tough to say how this translates into oscar, though. I don't think Affleck or Wahlberg will make it that far. And of course Pitt's had some trouble, too... but the big globe boost for Babel will help him.

Here's hoping Wahlberg siphons off some of Jack's votes and hands this award to Eddie Murphy.

Adriana Barazza (Babel)
Cate Blanchett (Notes on a Scandal)
Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls)
Rinko Kikuchi (Babel)
Anika Noni Rose (Dreamgirls)
alt. Vera Farmiga (The Departed) & Emily Blunt (The Devil Wears Prada)

Two words: EMILY. BLUNT. I'm SO happy for Emily Blunt. I still can't believe it. Can she get nominated for an oscar? I sure hope so (though I have my doubts). Barazza and Kikuchi are both looking very good for nominations now... and Hudson of course for the win. Dreamgirls as a whole hasn't done that well, though, and it looks like Noni Rose will get nowhere near the shortlist.

It actually looks like this could be the oscar lineup, give or take the two Little Miss Sunshine girls and a still-very-possible Vera Farmiga. Blunt will most likely fall to one of them, or to someone else I'm not thinking of. But please please PLEASE pray she doesn't.

The Fountain
Letters from Iwo Jima
Notes on a Scandal
The Painted Veil
The Queen
alt. Apocalypto & Little Children

...and the shockers are: Babel, Nomad and The DaVinci Code.

OK, so Babel is not that shocking. I actually haven't seen it, so maybe I don't realize how great the score is. I left it out mostly just cause I didn't see Babel getting 7 noms and becoming the nomination frontrunner (!!!). It sure showed me. I also almost predicted DaVinci Code but alas, I changed my mind. Nomad is the only one I totally didn't see coming (who knows what that film even is???).

The irony here is that I got two of the unexpected noms (Veil, Fountain) and then missed all the rest... but really, there were no "expected" noms in this category. Very cool category.

And just how happy am I about The Fountain??? ECSTATIC. My second favorite surprise nom of the day. And I predicted it. Yay!

Casino Royale ("You Know My Name")
Dreamgirls ("Listen")
Dreamgirls ("Love You I Do")
An Inconvenient Truth ("I Need to Wake Up")
Little Miss Sunshine ("Til The End of Time")
alt. Dreamgirls ("Patience") & Borat ("O Kazakhstan")

...and the rest of the category was:
Bobby ("Never Gonna Break My Faith")
Happy Feet ("Song of the Heart")
Home of the Brave ("Try Not to Remember")
The Pursuit of Happyness ("A Father's Way")

Whatever. I was way off. But this category is stupid. These songs all sound stupid. I suppose I should've known the Bobby song would make it, but the others? What up wit' dat? And the snubbing of Melissa Etheridge's "I Need to Wake Up?" Criminal.

Thankfully, oscar often differs strikingly in this category. It's choices are usually far better.

Letters from Iwo Jima
The Lives of Others
Pan's Labyrinth
alt. Days of Glory & Curse of the Golden Flower

5/5 here. Yeah, I rule.

I expect Glory and Flower to replace Letters and Apocalypto at the oscars. Very competitive foreign field this year. That's awesome.

But I expect the globe in any case to go to Letters.

Happy Feet
Monster House
Over the Hedge
A Scanner Darkly
alt. Flushed Away & The Ant Bully

They only picked three, but I got those three. It's just a coincidence that they were the first three I listed (alphabetical, you know), but they would've been my first three picks anyway... in that order, even.

Anyway... WOW.

#1: Ejiofor gets in for Kinky Boots over Foxx for Dreamgirls. Whaa--?
#2: Collette instead of Breslin in lead. Totally random and crazy.
#3: Nomad for best score. What is this movie???
#4: Condon gets snubbed for Dreamgirls. That's major.
and lastly... (that's #5 in shockingness but #1 in awesomeness):
#omgYES: EMILY BLUNT gets in for The Devil Wears Prada.
YES!!! I am happy as all get-out for her... but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't surprised.

Did MUCH better than expected: Babel, Bobby
Did MUCH worse than expected: Dreamgirls, Little Miss Sunshine
TOTALLY shut out: United 93 (I knew it was no "lock")
FINALLY got some traction: Little Children (I knew it would)
COOLEST surprise nom: Emily Blunt (sweeeeet)
DUMBEST surprise nom: Bobby (I thought it was dead)

My overall prediction rate: 50/68=73.5% (not too bad)

Thoughts? Comments? Reactions? Gushing praise at my prediction skills? (I really didn't do THAT well)

Lots of food for thought here.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

Damn Adam, you're talented at this stuff (reading this after the announcement.) The rest of us should just give up!

10:06 AM  
Blogger Kamikaze Camel said...

1. The Globes gave Scorsese the award for Gangs of New York. They don't owe him anything.

2. When I watched Kinky Boots months back I thought Ejiofor was a chance for Globe love, but forgot all about him about a week later (along with the film)

3. I hate Jamie Foxx, so yay

4. Mirren is winning the TV award, so maybe they will actually give it to Cruz. Who knows. It'll be interesting.

5. Just think: If Renee got nommed for Cinderella she would have 6 noms in a row (equalling Michelle Pfeiffer, I believe)

6. I still say The Queen is winning BP ala The Hours over Gangs of New York and a musical won in the comedy arena.

7. I have a weird feeling that the Globe will actually go to Ben Affleck. I hope Pitt doesn't get an Oscar nod. It's such a nothing role.

8. Yeah, go Emily Blunt

9. Nomad is actually a... wait for it... wait for it... a movie from... wait for it... KAZAKHSTAN!!!!!!!!! Does that not make you laugh hysterically?!?! The YEAR OF KAZAKHSTAN!!! It strangely stars Jay Hernandez though.

10. "I Need to Wake Up" is Melissa Etheridge taking a nap in the studio and recording her jibberish sleep talking. Where's the rocking Melissa I know?

11. I predicted Bobby, Emily Blunt, and the exclusion of Abigail, so I win on those things.

12. Gerard over at In Contention said "Wow. You deserve kudos for that Bobby prediction" to Kris, so I ever-so-slightly replied saying I too predicted it. Of course I won't get no love. Kris hates me like an uncomfortable rash (I keep calling him out on things. its sorta funny)

13 (and last) Somebody actually replied over at In Contention "I think Kris' review of Dreamgirls killed its chances totally." how about LOL!?!?!

Over and Out!

10:21 AM  
Blogger adam k. said...

Yes, I'm sure the HFPA all base their voting decisions on Kris' reviews.

Yes, you win on Blunt and Bobby, but I got Wahlberg and Affleck, and all the foreign nominees. And The Fountain for score... but none of those were all that shocking, really. I actually don't think Bobby and Blunt were the biggest shocks, it was more Kinky Boots and Toni Collette and the Condon snub for me.

See, I think Babel is this year's Hours. It is actually much more like The Hours than The Queen is. 7 nominations + lots of interwoven stories + depressing = won't actually win the best pic oscar, but WILL win the globe.

Affleck could indeed win the globe. I think it'll be Murphy, but it could kinda be anyone.

3:22 PM  

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