Saturday, January 27, 2007

SAG predictions + actuals

Wow, how boring. But I'm glad Little Miss Sunshine won.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
My prediction: Peter O'Toole (Venus)
My alternate: Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland)
Actual winner: Forest Whitaker

POST-CEREMONY: OK. So... I guess he's winning the oscar. But will they really send O'Toole home empty-handed AGAIN? I just find that hard to imagine.

PRE-CEREMONY: Alright. So I know I've gone on and on about how Will Smith had the best chance to win the SAG because his film is widely seen, etc. but I'm rescinding now. I've heard the news about the 100,000 Venus screeners sent out to the entire SAG membership, and that is enough to give me confidence that he'll take this. Smith may be seen as too light/mainstream to win this, so even though I think he's still very much in the running in a not-so-distant 3rd place, I think it'll go to O'Toole or Whitaker. O'Toole has the edge due both to the inundation of screeners and to his being a legend who's never won a SAG, playing an actor.


BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
My prediction: Helen Mirren (The Queen)
My alternate: Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada)
Actual winner: Helen Mirren

POST-CEREMONY: Yawn. Nice speech, though. She's great, I can handle her winning.

PRE-CEREMONY: I'm sticking with Mirren here, but it's not a runaway. SAG has been known to buck trends in their voting, and The Queen couldn't manage any other nominations with them. Streep is the most likely spoiler, since her film is very widely seen and every actor I know worships Meryl Streep and LOVES her in this movie. I think it'll be closer than people realize, at least in this particular race. But I still know a frontrunner when I see one. Mirren it is.


BEST PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
My prediction: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Departed)
My alternate: Alan Arkin (Little Miss Sunshine)
Actual winner: Eddie Murphy

POST-CEREMONY: That's weird, I really thought they'd honor Leo. Strange that Departed won nothing. I think it's the hyper-masculine factor. Women don't vote for it. So will Murphy actually win the oscar? Probably.

PRE-CEREMONY: This one seems pretty simple to me. Leo has 3 nominations, will NOT be winning for Blood Diamond, and is having a hell of a year, with this being the last chance he has to win something for The Departed. I think he'll take this one, throwing a big wrench in the oscar race. Especially if The Departed loses best ensemble (which people seem to think it will), then I really can't imagine Leo losing here. The obvious backup pick would be Alan Arkin (veteran, in loved film, has never won), but don't think they'll be honoring 3 (!) old crones in one night. Murphy also could continue his streak and win it (he'd be my 3rd choice), but I'm sticking with Leo. And since his performance is easily the best in the category, I'll be happy if he wins.


BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
My prediction: Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls)
My alternate: Abigail Breslin (Little Miss Sunshine)
Actual winner: Jennifer Hudson

POST-CEREMONY: Yeah, duh. No more surprises this year, except best picture.

PRE-CEREMONY: I'm sticking with JHud on this one. Her endless run of wins shows no sign up of letting up now, best pic snub or no best pic snub. I do have some reservations about the way actors in particular will feel about her perf, which is the only reason I'm not 100% sure she'll win this. But I'm not stupid. I know a frontrunner when I see one (see also: Queen Mirren). Still, there's an obvious alternate choice in Abigail Breslin, and I wouldn't be shocked to see her emerge with a trophy... or two.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A CAST IN A MOTION PICTURE
My prediction: Little Miss Sunshine
My alternate: The Departed
Actual winner: Little Miss Sunshine

POST-CEREMONY: Yay! Expected, but I do love them so. I still don't think the film can win the oscar, but it would be pretty cool if it did.

PRE-CEREMONY: Very much a two-horse race. For a LONG time, I thought The Departed would ride its huge star wattage and general awards strength to a win here. But lately, Little Miss Sunshine has been picking up major steam, due in no small part to its BFCA win for best ensemble. Expect to see that repeated here. This is a true ensemble film, with truly great ensemble work. I'll be so happy if it wins.

So I got 3/5 in total. Pretty bad. But I felt like taking chances. Really, I'm pretty bored with this awards season now. At least the best pic race is still interesting.

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2 Comments:

Blogger Ali said...

I'm also wondering whether LMS will take the Oscar, but the lack of the Editing nod prevents me from stating it with confidence (Brokeback obviously wasn't able to overcome that hurdle...)

I'm not good with stats; has there ever been a film (minus the winners in the early years, when things were simply nuts) to have won Best Picture without an Editing nom? Because if not, it's likely that Babel or The Departed will take it.

2:53 AM  
Blogger adam k. said...

I'm fairly sure that the last time a film won without an editing nod was Ordinary People in 1980, which was also the last time before Crash that a film won with fewer than 6 nods (this question came up last year).

But honestly, I don't think the editing snub had much to do with Brokeback's loss. It's not as if they all sat around saying "it has no editing nod! we have to vote for Crash now!" If anything, it was more that the unexpected random snub made BBM look weak, which made people think Crash had a chance, and maybe more people decided to vote for it for that reason.

But this year is different. No one ever expected LMS to get an editing nod. Everything's just gotten so random that it's impossible to tell what really has the momentum.

I still expect The Departed to win; it still has the best combo of base support: nods for director, screenplay, acting & editing, very strong box office, and solid (if not dominating) precursor support. Departed also has 2 very likely wins in director and screenplay, so it just seems logical that it'd win picture.

Even if it garners the PGA, WGA, and SAG, Sunshine just doesn't seem like a winner to me (and I really WANT it to win, as you probably know). If it had director & editing, it'd be the frontrunner right now, but as it is, I just don't see it. Though I could certainly be wrong. I don't think editing by itself will make or brake it.

Babel or even Letters could also win... but I think the safe money's on The Departed.

It'll have the DGA and WGA, and the BFCA, as well as oscar wins for writing and directing. But I think what will put it over the top is the male vote; it appeals much more to men than to women, and while that didn't help it win things like SAG, I think it will be a plus with the old-man-skewing academy.

4:00 AM  

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