Sunday, October 21, 2007

random Golden Globe comedy/musical update

I love the Golden Globe comedy/musical categories.

Here's how things look right now in Best Picture:

1) HAIRSPRAY
I don't really think it'll win. But I don't see how it can miss the nod. It's already opened and proved itself a contender. It's both a comedy AND a musical, it's been both well-reviewed AND well-attended, and it's just so much fun. It may be too lightweight to win here, but it'll be among the nominees.

2) KNOCKED UP
This year's zeitgeist mainstream comedy hit. It's as well-reviewed as Hairspray, and it's made even more money. The only thing against it is that it's rather low-brow... and that (I believe) kept the same director's 40 Year Old Virgin off the shortlist. But I think the HFPA voters realize it's time to honor Judd Apatow. It'll be hard to deny him this year... but they can if they want to.

3) ONCE
Still a teensy weensy foreign indie, but its box office (nearly $10 million) is now as good as can be expected of arthouse fare. It's actually made BIG money relative to its budget, and it's one of the best-reviewed films this year. And despite it's teensiness and Irishness, it's totally accessible, and damn hard not to at least like (I myself love it). So I think it'll place here. Maybe nowhere else, but at least here.

4) SWEENEY TODD: THE DEMON BARBER OF FLEET STREET
Here it gets more dicey, cause we're getting into unknown quantities. But I bet they'll nominate this one here even if it's bad. It'll get lots of votes on pre-release hype alone... unless it's a total bomb, on the level of, say, Elizabeth: The Golden Age... in which case Johnny and Helena will probably STILL be globe-nommed... but the movie, probably not. Though if it's actually good, it could easily win. No film seems like much of an early favorite... except maybe this one.

5) JUNO
This one could ride Ellen Page's acclaim right into the top category. Pre-release buzz is defeaning; apparently the studio has more faith in this than in The Savages, hence the latter's move to December. Juno's being touted as "this year's Little Miss Sunshine"... and we know what happened with that one. BUT this is not an ensemble; the attention's focused mainly on Ellen Page. So that might be where the nominations focus, too.

6) THE SAVAGES
See above. But it could still easily place here IF it doesn't get lost in the December shuffle AND it's categorized as a comedy. Neither of those is a sure thing. So I remain skeptical (though Linney individually is looking strong).

7) I'M NOT THERE
My early hunch on this appears to have been wrong. The jury's still out on its critical reception, and even Nathaniel doesn't love it. So mainstream awardage seems unlikely. After all, last time Haynes made a film, the critics gave the HFPA a clear go-ahead to nominate it, and they... didn't. As a biopic of a famous musical icon, this one stands a better chance, but I'm not holding my breath. I'll probably have to settle for a Blanchett win.

8) RATATOUILLE
It's as acclaimed as Finding Nemo and The Incredibles - arguably moreso - but with the globes' new animated category, it'll be much harder for Ratatouille to place here. In fact, it might be impossible. Anybody know the rules of eligibility?

9) ENCHANTED
Could be a huge hit... or not. And even if it is, they could ignore it. Time will tell.

10) (tie) WAITRESS & LARS AND THE REAL GIRL
I think their supporters will rally round Keri Russell and Ryan Gosling, respectively. So I doubt these two will make a play here... though it is possible.

Probably not gonna happen: MARGOT AT THE WEDDDING

Any of the top 8 are still quite possible, but I think this order is pretty accurate about their chances. What do YOU think? I might do one of these for each of the other comedy/musical categories when I have time, but right now, I'm going to bed. Catch y'all later.

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15 Comments:

Blogger Kamikaze Camel said...

So, about Once... umm... :/

4:22 AM  
Blogger Kamikaze Camel said...

Oh, and also, the globes have given their Best Picture Musical/Comedy award to much more frivilous movies than Hairspray so if Sweeney Todd doesn't hit as big.

But then they also have awarded people like Ricky Gervais for The Office so perhaps Once could win (unfortunately, he whispers quietly)

4:24 AM  
Blogger Colin said...

No Lars and the Real Girl? I doubt that they will consider that under drama, however much more of a drama than comedy it is.

7:36 AM  
Blogger adam k. said...

Uh-oh, Glenn is one of the haters...

Sorry, no hating on Once (or The Host!) in my little playground. I suggest you find the other 5 people who disliked Once and go bitch together in a little room something : P

Haha, that was so mean. But as much as frustrated when I am cursing critically acclaimed movies I hate, I do feel the need to invoke the critics on this one:

98% RT
100% RT cream of the crop
88% on metacritic (universal acclaim)

Sooo...

Oh, re: Lars and the Real Girl, yeah I forgot about it. I don't think it'll be nominated, but I gave it the spot I had Margot in (since that one has no chance at all).

1:45 PM  
Blogger adam k. said...

Anyway, it seems to me that it'll be the top 4, plus whichever one of the lead-performance-driven films (Juno, Lars, Waitress, Enchanted) breaks out the most. Or if none of them do, then the 5th spot will go to The Savages or I'm Not There.

And any of the musicals could win. I do think it'll be one of the musicals (I'm Not There included).

1:54 PM  
Blogger Kamikaze Camel said...

I suppose I am a hater. :)

11:00 PM  
Anonymous Matthieu said...

Someone might want to check the Gotham Awards nominations

Best feature
MARGOT AT THE WEDDING

Best ensemble
MARGOT AT THE WEDDING

Kidman and Leigh are on their way to a bunch of noms a la Theron/McDormand for North Country

8:47 PM  
Anonymous Matthieu said...

Oh, and for the "Please come out already Jodie Bandwagon", Adam K. might also want to check www.justjared.com to see Jodie pictured with her kids and her partner Cydney Bernard.
She also publicly stated that her kid's surname was Bernard Foster.
Is that not enough ? Should she send you a note ? or should she send a note to every gay and lesbian of this country ? Then they could all call their mom and say "Mommy, I'm gay, but guess what, Jodie Foster too, so I guess that's OK" !!!

8:52 PM  
Blogger adam k. said...

Matthieu:

I'm not holding my breath for Margot at the Wedding. But not that I never said Kidman or Leigh were out of contention, just that the film itself was, and I stand by that. Even if it were getting raves, it'd have a hard time getting nominated in this competitive category. As it is, I'd keep it below the other 10 films on my list. Leigh I think has a good chance to be nommed, and Kidman has a good chance to at least be globe nommed. But the film? No.

And re: Jodie Foster... that post was from weeks ago, and I've already stated in the comments that it was too harsh. So I don't know why you're bringing that up now.

I was just venting. I heart Jodie. I just feel for her and her situation. Say what you will about her semi-outness, but she was visibly nervous on Letterman promoting The Brave One. I assume this is either because:

A) She isn't really as proud of The Brave One as she claims (and she shouldn't be, really)

or B) She is constantly worried about being asked about her partner, family, etc.

The double whammy assault of seeing The Brave One (a bad film that Jodie's apparently more proud of than any film she's done in a long time) and the semi-painful Letterman spot was what drove me to do that post.

I respect her efforts to keep her private life private, I just think she's gone a bit too far for her own good, and has gotten herself into a bit of a spot lately, what with that and the string of bad movies.

That's just my opinion. But I'm sure Jodie's a lovely person, and I'd be honored to know her personally. I realize that I don't actually. But you know how it is with celebrities. Their job is to make you think that you do.

And that's all I have to say about that.

11:00 PM  
Blogger Rural Juror said...

Adam, if Once gets nomianted for a globe we should throw a party b/c that would be incredible. I loved that movie.

2:52 AM  
Blogger adam k. said...

I feel pretty confident in a Once nod. It does after all have the musical advantage. As one of the year's most consistently praised films AND a musical, Once shouldn't have much trouble placing.

And though it's a tiny little thing, it was really extraordinarily successful on its own terms; it's not like it didn't money.

It also doesn't have standout individual elements the way many contenders do; it's really about the whole package... which is why I think it will get the pic nod and others (like Lars, Waitress, Juno, Enchanted, etc.) will get nominated for acting.

That reasoning goes for Hairspray, too.

2:20 PM  
Blogger adam k. said...

Oh, but I just realized I'd forgotten about a major player: Ratatouille.

It's now among the predicted nominees.

2:27 PM  
Blogger Kamikaze Camel said...

They have an animated category now so while it woulda been a slam dunk (and could've won, really) it is now much harder. Unfortunately.

3:14 AM  
Blogger adam k. said...

Oh, that's right. I knew there was a reason I wasn't predicting it.

I think it may actually be impossible for it to be nommed then. With the other best pic categories (Drama, Comedy/Musical, Foreign), you can only be nominated in one - no overlaps. So I'm inclined to think the new animated is that way, too.

Damn.

3:39 AM  
Blogger Kamikaze Camel said...

I know, it's very disappointing. They gave the award to Toy Story 2 in 2000, which is incredibly amazing. Alas...

9:46 AM  

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