random Golden Globe comedy/musical update

I love the Golden Globe comedy/musical categories.

Here's how things look right now in Best Picture:

1) HAIRSPRAY
I don't really think it'll win. But I don't see how it can miss the nod. It's already opened and proved itself a contender. It's both a comedy AND a musical, it's been both well-reviewed AND well-attended, and it's just so much fun. It may be too lightweight to win here, but it'll be among the nominees.

2) KNOCKED UP
This year's zeitgeist mainstream comedy hit. It's as well-reviewed as Hairspray, and it's made even more money. The only thing against it is that it's rather low-brow... and that (I believe) kept the same director's 40 Year Old Virgin off the shortlist. But I think the HFPA voters realize it's time to honor Judd Apatow. It'll be hard to deny him this year... but they can if they want to.

3) ONCE
Still a teensy weensy foreign indie, but its box office (nearly $10 million) is now as good as can be expected of arthouse fare. It's actually made BIG money relative to its budget, and it's one of the best-reviewed films this year. And despite it's teensiness and Irishness, it's totally accessible, and damn hard not to at least like (I myself love it). So I think it'll place here. Maybe nowhere else, but at least here.

4) SWEENEY TODD: THE DEMON BARBER OF FLEET STREET
Here it gets more dicey, cause we're getting into unknown quantities. But I bet they'll nominate this one here even if it's bad. It'll get lots of votes on pre-release hype alone... unless it's a total bomb, on the level of, say, Elizabeth: The Golden Age... in which case Johnny and Helena will probably STILL be globe-nommed... but the movie, probably not. Though if it's actually good, it could easily win. No film seems like much of an early favorite... except maybe this one.

5) JUNO
This one could ride Ellen Page's acclaim right into the top category. Pre-release buzz is defeaning; apparently the studio has more faith in this than in The Savages, hence the latter's move to December. Juno's being touted as "this year's Little Miss Sunshine"... and we know what happened with that one. BUT this is not an ensemble; the attention's focused mainly on Ellen Page. So that might be where the nominations focus, too.

6) THE SAVAGES
See above. But it could still easily place here IF it doesn't get lost in the December shuffle AND it's categorized as a comedy. Neither of those is a sure thing. So I remain skeptical (though Linney individually is looking strong).

7) I'M NOT THERE
My early hunch on this appears to have been wrong. The jury's still out on its critical reception, and even Nathaniel doesn't love it. So mainstream awardage seems unlikely. After all, last time Haynes made a film, the critics gave the HFPA a clear go-ahead to nominate it, and they... didn't. As a biopic of a famous musical icon, this one stands a better chance, but I'm not holding my breath. I'll probably have to settle for a Blanchett win.

8) RATATOUILLE
It's as acclaimed as Finding Nemo and The Incredibles - arguably moreso - but with the globes' new animated category, it'll be much harder for Ratatouille to place here. In fact, it might be impossible. Anybody know the rules of eligibility?

9) ENCHANTED
Could be a huge hit... or not. And even if it is, they could ignore it. Time will tell.

10) (tie) WAITRESS & LARS AND THE REAL GIRL
I think their supporters will rally round Keri Russell and Ryan Gosling, respectively. So I doubt these two will make a play here... though it is possible.

Probably not gonna happen: MARGOT AT THE WEDDDING

Any of the top 8 are still quite possible, but I think this order is pretty accurate about their chances. What do YOU think? I might do one of these for each of the other comedy/musical categories when I have time, but right now, I'm going to bed. Catch y'all later.