Monday, November 19, 2007

GOLDEN GLOBE SPOTLIGHT:Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)

Now for the comedic and musical men. Ahhh, the men. It's not nearly as competitive for them as it is for the ladies, but it is still a race worth exploring (if you, like me, love the men). Anyway, here are the leading contenders, as I see them:

DON CHEADLE (Talk to Me)

In his corner: Lots of goodwill in the industry. He's a very strong actor with only one previous nom to his name (for Hotel Rwanda). And once again, he's earned critical acclaim for playing a real person. I don't know much about this film (I missed it during its theatrical run), but it seems likely to earn him a nod in such a weak year.

But... the film never quite caught on the way it might have. It didn't make much money, and no one seems to be talking about it anymore.

(Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End)

In his corner: They love him. They've nominated him for the last two Pirates films. Why stop now? Depp's been a fixture at the globes for the past few years.

But... Captain Jack's kinda played out. Been there, done that, twice over. And Depp-wise, Sweeney Todd is where it's at this year.

Then again... they might just as soon nominate him for both (they did it for Leo last year). Call it "double Depping."

JOHNNY DEPP (Sweeney Todd)

In his corner: Legendary, immensely challenging role. It's comedic AND dramatic AND musical. It's been awards-bait before, at the Tonys. And Johnny's having a great year. And the globes love him. I don't see how he can miss.

But... what if he butchers it??? If the film's a total bust, and people start saying he's sullied Sweeney Todd, then I suppose they might snub him. Maybe.

Then again... I really think he'll get nominated either way. They've nommed him for crap before (Willy Wonka anyone?).

RYAN GOSLING (Lars and the Real Girl)

In his corner: He's a great actor, still riding high from last year's success, Half Nelson... and his Lars is totally unlike that previous (oscar-nominated) role.

But... some people don't like the quirk. Plus, the HFPA didn't even nominate him for Half Nelson... so maybe they won't nominate him for this? And speaking of Nelson, this perf is bound to suffer by comparison; it's hard to follow up Dan Dunne.


In his corner: Lovely, beautifully naturalistic performance in a movie that many people love. His acting, his singing and his songs carry the film. One could argue that he's the principal creative force behind Once.

But... he's not famous AT ALL. He's not even an actor, really. Nor is he American (his competitors are all of the above). Voters will have to REALLY love the film for him to get in. And even if they do, it's easier for them to just nominate one of his songs.


In his corner: Strong performance in a prestige film. Great scene partner in Laura Linney. He's had a great year, and it's probably easiest for voters to honor it by nominating him here.

But... men don't usually win awards for films like this; I'd say Linney's a more likely nominee. And some say she overshadows him anyway. Plus, there's always the off chance he'll compete in drama (in which case, he'd probably be snubbed).

SETH ROGEN (Knocked Up)

In his corner: Lead role in acclaimed hit film. That usually spells N-O-M. Could be the "mainstream" choice if voters are sick of Depp.

But... that's a big "if." And with romantic comedies, it's usually the women who win awards... not to mention, his female co-star is much more famous than he is. Plus, though he's very funny and engaging, he kind of reads as just a schlub playing a schlub... and that's not too hard. If either of the leads gets a nom from this film, it'll probably be Katherine Heigl.


In his corner: This category loves him; he's won it before. And this year, he gave the most talked about performance in a well-reviewed hit. When you leave the film, you definitely remember him (even if you'd rather not). Voters may be nostalgic for the Travolta of yore, to the tune of a nomination here.

But... it's really a supporting role. Since it's a lead in the play, and sticks out so much in the film, voters might ignore that fact and place him here anyway... but that's not a given. Plus, the performance is divisive; there's a good chance it won't be nominated at all.

I'd say all these men have a shot at the shortlist (assuming of course that Travolta's not placed in supporting, and Hoffman's not placed in drama). I think the list of 5 will be culled from these 8 (I'm also assuming, for the sake of argument, that if Sam Riley in Control gets any traction, he'll follow Cotillard into drama). Am I missing anyone? I do think, for the record, that the Jameses (Marsden and McAvoy) would be #9 and #10 respectively (for Enchanted and Becoming Jane). They're both having stellar years. But since they're also both playing second fiddle to their female co-stars, I don't expect to see either of them on the shortlist.

Right now I'd say the list will consist of Cheadle, Depp, Depp, Gosling and Hoffman, with Depp (for Sweeney) and Gosling being the two locks. But I'm probably wrong.

Who do you guys think it'll be? Discuss in the comments.

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Anonymous Ryan said...

Men are always so boring compared to the ladies- especially in comedy. Now, the fact that Depp has yet to win a Golden Globe is, in my view, testament against their “star-fucker” label. They EASILY could have given it to him in 2003 or 2004 but did not. However, I think this could be his year…

1. DEPP- a win at last?
2. TRAVOLTA- he’ll get a nod, but where? Right now I’m thinking lead.
3. HOFFMAN- Still can’t stand him. Yes, he’s a great actor. Yes, he will almost certainly be nominated but just get him away from me!
4. ROGEN- I think he’ll make it and he does deserve it.
5. CHEADLE- good call Adam, forgot about him

GOSLING- I highly doubt it- unless they feel guilty about the “Half Nelson” sub.
HANSARD- no way

I loved ONCE but Hansard is just too “unknown” for a nod here. Ryan Gosling is a fine actor but I’m fiercely loyal to my boy Gyllenhaal in the rising young (male) Hollywood elite.

Wonderful prediction post Adam. Can’t wait for more!

1:49 AM  
Blogger adam k. said...

Well, you'll have to wait for more, cause I have to edit a movie by wednesday ; ) But thanks!

I wish with all my heart that Hansard had a chance here. He really should. But you're right, he doesn't... and for stupid reasons. But I'll still be rooting for him 'til the end.

re: Gosling... I bet they DO feel bad about the Half Nelson snub. But even if they don't... he's a hot young star now, and he got acclaim for this role. He deserves it. I certainly think he has a better chance than Rogen.

And I think Depp is winning. Period. Unless they go nutso for Travolta and actually give him a win here... which I suppose is possible IF Sweeney disappoints.

2:08 AM  
Blogger adam k. said...

And why didn't Depp win a globe waaaay back in 1990 for Edward Scissorhands? That's what I wanna know.

Gerard Depardieu for Green Card? wtf?

2:11 AM  
Blogger Kamikaze Camel said...

The HFPA don't feel guilty about anything. Let us remember that Naomi Watts has never been nominated by the HFPA. Not for Mulholland Drive (which was nommed for Pic, Dir, Screenplay and Score!) and not for her Oscar-nommed role in 21 Grams (they felt guilty) or King Kong or The Ring. Nothing. So, no, even if they feel bad for not nominating Gosling I doubt they'll suddenly nominate him for Lars. If they do good for him but it won't be because they feel bad.

2:26 AM  
Blogger adam k. said...

Glenn, good point. But you forgot The Painted Veil btw. They didn't nominate her for that one either ; )

The Mulholland snub really is baffling... especially since it couldn't have been a category mixup thing. Don't they decide on people's categories before they start voting? Weird.

Anyway, there are a lot of other reasons why I think Gosling will get the nod; it's not just cause I think they're feeling guilty. It's more that I think they would've come around by now to the idea of Ryan Gosling being a hot young star they have to invite. And the whole situation reminds me of how Diane Lane got that globe nom for Under the Tuscan Sun almost entirely out of leftover goodwill from Unfaithful.

It just seems like it's time for them to honor Gosling... and there's not much competition. So why not?

2:35 AM  
Blogger par3182 said...

because the globes usually throw up some out-of-nowhere names that are going nowhere near the oscars how about steve carell in 'dan in real life' or jim sturgess in 'across the universe'?

7:19 PM  
Blogger adam k. said...

Those are possible, I suppose, but there are a lot of guys in front of them. Across the Universe was considered a failure, justly or not, and Steve Carrell has never gotten any love from the globes for his film work, for whatever reason, so I don't expect that to change now.

And I'm hoping their "out of nowhere" name this year will be Glen Hansard.

7:35 PM  
Blogger Kamikaze Camel said...

They nominated Chiwetel Ejiofor so you never can tell where they're going to go. I'd love it if they randomly through a nomination to Simon Pegg for Hot Fuzz.

Adam, I must've forgotten The Painted Veil because IT STILL HASN'T BEEN RELEASED IN AUSTRALIA!!! How fucked up is that? Almost as fucked up as the HFPA not nominating Naomi Watts for a movie they seemingly loved a lot.

9:14 PM  
Blogger adam k. said...

Wow, that sucks for you.

Can I visit you in Australia??? Like, not during movie season. When there's nothing to miss. Though on second thought, maybe not, since the American $ isn't worth shit anymore, and I don't really have 1,000 of them to spare anyway.

11:48 PM  
Blogger Kamikaze Camel said...

SURE! Why not!

"not during movie season" would be the opportune time.

9:17 PM  

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