Sunday, January 27, 2008


Ryan (& Blanchett)

BFCA: Ryan

GG: Blanchett

SAG: Dee

Oscar: ?????

Any ideas? I guess the smart money's still on Blanchett (she has a double nom, lest we forget, and she played a real person). The Ruby Dee win at SAG tonight was probably more the populism bias than anything (many many people vote in those awards, and I bet they all saw American Gangster), but it still gives her momentum heading into the big race. Amy Ryan I think is the classic "critic's pick" who was never destined to transfer to an oscar win, just like Madsen and other past losers. Most academy members probably still don't really know who she is. But my dream scenario is that the confusion leads to a surprise win for SWINTON who I love beyond reason, and who could be a token win for Michael Clayton (which I also liked a lot).

Crossing my fingers for Swinton... but probably still putting money on Cate. Pray for an upset, people... pray pray pray...



Blogger J.D. said...



My money's still on Blanchett. Even though it is wide open.

10:44 PM  
Blogger adam k. said...

I apologize for not mentioning Saorsie... but she's not gonna win.

Though I guess it is possible.

10:52 PM  
Blogger Rural Juror said...

I want Swinton . . . but I bet on Blanchett. Dee could be an upset, though

10:54 PM  
Blogger NATHANIEL R said...

my money is on DEE

the BLANCHETT backlash has begun (i'm not just making this up. and i'm certainly not alone --i've been paying attention -- in being like "enough already")

SWINTON is still too cool for that school. SAOIRSE is too young (though she would totally win if the film were more of a force --think Paquin in The Piano)

RYAN is too new and not an ingenue (where they like "new")

my theory at least

2:51 PM  
Blogger adam k. said...

It may indeed be DEE, but I do think this year is one of those unstable years where best supporting actress could go anywhere. Like in 2000:

BFCA: McDormand
GG: Hudson
SAG: Dench
Oscar: Harden

If the 3 precursors all fly in different directions, oscar might go to none of them. And Michael Clayton needs a win. But yeah they may just settle on Dee. Or they may go back to Blanchett. I think Ryan's kind of a non-factor now, though.

10:06 PM  
Blogger DL said...

I'm still kind of baffled that Tilda Swinton even got nominated in the first place. A mostly mainstream public voting group suddenly embracing one of the strangest/most brilliant thespians in the world for a shady/unlikeable power-bitch? Hmm...

But if they like her enough to nominate her, maybe she could muster up enough support to win the thing??

Or maybe I'm just doing some extreme wishful thinking...

11:39 PM  
Blogger DL said...

*don't know why I referred to the Oscars as public. Whoopsy.

11:39 PM  
Blogger John T said...

I agree with Nathaniel-I think it's going to be Dee. Blanchett's backlash is probably here (remember, it also happened to Meryl Streep for a while), and I think everyone agrees she'll eventually get that second Oscar, but most would feel it should be for a lead role. Amy Ryan is a complete unknown, and though she picked up the most critics prizes, she's not the sort of person that Oscar usually flips over (plus, the movie's not nominated for anything else). Therefore, we have the legendary Ms. Ruby Dee, a woman who should have already had Academy Award nominee slapped in front of her name, who is in a film everyone saw, and is an actress everyone loves. I can see a lot of Academy members simply seeing her name and marking it down because they respect her so much. In this tight year, that should be enough to do it.

7:33 AM  
Blogger Kamikaze Camel said...

A general rule of thumb (or, it should be) with the supporting category is if you're unsure go with the a) the oldest or b) the one with the highest box office. In both cases that is Dee.

Although Adam did mention Marcia Gay Harden who wasn't known, wasn't in a big oscar pic and wasn't GG or SAG nommed (let alone a winner) so I still think Ryan is completely in the race. I'm thinking;

1. Dee
2. Ryan
3. Blanchett
4. Swinton
5. Ronan

Also, I'm not sure how many there are in the world let alone in the Academy, but you can bet your bottom dollar that any fan of The Wire is voting for Ryan.

8:21 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The big difference between this year's race and 2000's is that race didn't have an unrewarded legend among the nominees.

I guess Julie Walters might qualify, but being unrewarded at 50 is quite different than being unrewarded at 80+. Plus, Dee's renowned for her involvement in the civil rights movement, not just for acting - so she's an "important" legend.

10:51 AM  
Blogger Yaseen Ali said...

I would buy the "Blanchett backlash" theory... if she didn't just wing two acting nominations this year, one for a film that is pretty much universally reviled. I think AMPAS is still very much in love - they didn't have to give her a lead nod this year (there was arguably much more buzz around Adams when her film opened, and Jolie would have been a perfectly respectable early year choice.)

Still... if Cate didn't already have an Oscar to her name, she'd be a lock in this race. Plus, as John rightly said, they will probably wait until they can reward her in the Leading Actress categoy.

I'm also thinking Dee is going to take this, despite the lack of a sizable role/presence in Gangster. The living legend argument makes sense, and this will probably the last chance they will have to reward her (morbid, but true.) Swinton and co. will have more shots at the gold statuette. Right now, this the only argument that makes sense to me, although Amy Ryan is very much a possibility. I'm thinking Ronan is out.

1. Dee
2. Ryan
3. Blanchett
4. Swinton
5. Ronan

5:16 PM  

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