Oscar nomination predictions/reactions

BEST PICTURE
Atonement*
Into the Wild
Michael Clayton*
No Country for Old Men*
There Will Be Blood*
alt. Diving Bell
...and Juno.

4/5... including Atonement. I knew it would make it. Yay for Into the Wild being snubbed. I've seen all 5 of these nominees, and they're all very good films, which is a nice change. So yay. I was wrong about Juno, though. That's fine.


BEST DIRECTOR
PT Anderson (There Will Be Blood)*
Coen Bros (No Country)*
David Fincher (Zodiac)
Sean Penn (Into the Wild)
Julian Schnabel (Diving Bell)*
alt. Tony Gilroy (Clayton)
...and Jason Reitman (Juno).

3/5 (4 with my alternate). Probably about the same as most people... lots of surprises here.


BEST ACTOR
Clooney (Clayton)*
DDL (There Will Be Blood)*
Depp (Sweeney Todd)*
Hirsch (Into the Wild)
Mortensen (Eastern Promises)*
alt. Gosling (Lars)
...and Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah).

4/5... not bad. I KNEW Hirsch and Gosling were too young to be getting this much love. They like their leading men seasoned. But I went with Hirsch anyway. Not a big deal, since Jones was never the one I'd have predicted instead. Sad for McAvoy and Gosling, but oh well.


BEST ACTRESS
Christie (Away From Her)*
Cotillard (La Vie En Rose)*
Jolie (A Mighty Heart)
Linney (The Savages)*
Page (Juno)*
alt. Blanchett (Golden Age)

4/5 (5/5 with my alternate!) Looks like Blanchett was in fact more secure than Angelina. How baffling. But I'm SO happy for Linney. She was being unfairly shafted everywhere else. Could she win this? Probably not. But with her in and Page riding LOTS of Juno love, the race has opened up a bit. I still think Christie will take it - she's built up a lot of momentum - but it could go a few different ways.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Affleck (Assassination)*
Bardem (No Country)*
Holbrook (Into the Wild)*
Jones (No Country)
Wilkinson (Clayton)*
alt. Dano (There Will Be Blood)
...and Philip Seymour Hoffman (Charlie Wilson's War).

4/5 here. Dammit, I should've just gone with the consensus. But I just really didn't believe in Hoffman... it seemed like one of those nominations (like Jolie's turned out to be) that was in danger of missing out due to lack of passion. I think what happened was that all the possible upsets - Dano, Jones, Von Sydow - split each other's support and allowed Hoffman to pull through. Oh well. I was right that Jones would be nominated somewhere, though...


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Blanchett (I'm Not There)*
Keener (Into the Wild)
MacDonald (No Country)
Ryan (Gone Baby Gone)*
Swinton (Michael Clayton)*
alt. Dee (American Gangster)
...and Saoirse Ronan (Atonement).

3/5 (4 with my alternate). Damn, I shoulda stuck with Saorsie. I believe in her for a long time... thought it would be her, screenplay, and best pic for Atonement, which is just what it turned out to be. But then I abandoned her in favor of candidates from (presumed) frontrunner films. Oh well. Happy for Ruby Dee, though.


ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Juno *
Lars and the Real Girl*
Michael Clayton*
Ratatouille*
The Savages*
alt. Knocked Up

5/5 here. This category was easy.


ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Atonement*
Diving Bell*
No Country*
There Will Be Blood*
Zodiac
alt. Into the Wild
...and Away From Her.

4/5 here... including Atonement. I knew it was far from dead. And yay for Away From Her! I had faith in it early in the season, but lately I thought it would be crowded out of this category when all was said and done. But alas, here it is. Too bad about Zodiac, though. Oh, and I correctly predict THIS Into the Wild snub at least! Yay!


ART DIRECTION
3:10 to Yuma
Atonement*
Harry Potter
Sweeney Todd*
There Will Be Blood*
alt. Golden Age
American Gangster
...and The Golden Compass.

3/5


COSTUME DESIGN
3:10 to Yuma
Atonement)*
Golden Age)*
Hairspray
Sweeney Todd*
alt. La Vie En Rose
...and Across the Universe.

3/5 (4 with alternate)


CINEMATOGRAPHY
Assassination*
Atonement*
Diving Bell*
No Country*
There Will Be Blood*
alt. Into the Wild

5/5! Yay! Good thing they hated Into the Wild.


FILM EDITING
Atonement
Into the Wild*
Michael Clayton
No Country*
There Will Be Blood*
alt. Bourne Ultimatum
...and Diving Bell.

3/5 (4 with alternate). So they nominated the snubbed Into the Wild and Diving Bell here, but not best pics Atonement and Michael Clayton (both of which were very well edited). Oh well. This branch is veering more and more away from best picture, though sometimes it seems unintentional.


MAKEUP
DIving Bell
La Vie En Rose*
Sweeney Todd
alt. 300
Pirates
...and Norbit.

1/3. Christ. This is ridiculous. Maybe La Vie En Rose will win a consolation prize here when it loses actress? As long as Norbit doesn't win.


VISUAL EFFECTS
300
Golden Compass*
Transformers*
alt. Pirates.

2/3. I don't know why I predicted 300. That was dumb. Oh well.


SOUND
Hairspray
No Country for Old Men*
Pirates
Sweeney Todd
Transformers*
alt. Bourne Ultimatum
3:10 to Yuma
...and Ratatouille.

2/5 (3 with my alternate). Ouch.


SOUND EFFECTS EDITING
300
Bourne Ultimatum*
No Country*
Ratatouille*
Transformers*
alt. Beowulf
...and There Will Be Blood.

4/5. Good for me. And good for There Will Be Blood, which I'm very happy about, even if I didn't see it coming.


ORIGINAL SCORE
3:10 to Yuma*
Atonement*
Kite Runner*
Lust, Caution
Ratatouille*
alt. Beowulf
...and Michael Clayton.

4/5. Yay for me! And yay for everyone! Except I'm really sad for Alexandre Desplat, who still only has one nomination to his name, despite being nod-worthy every year. Booo.


ORIGINAL SONG
Enchanted ("That's How You Know")*
Into the Wild ("Guaranteed")
Hairspray ("Come So Far")
Love in the Time of Cholera ("Despedida")
Once ("Falling Slowly")*
alt. American Gangster ("Do You Feel Me?")
two other songs from Enchanted
...and a song from August Rush.

2/5. Wow, this category never fails to shock. But yay for shunning all the rock/pop stars here (booo for the shunning of Jonny Greenwood, but that's another matter). So with the whole category being hogged by Enchanted (none of whose songs really seem to stand out), does this mean "Falling Slowly" will win it??? Please please PLEASE....


ANIMATED FILM
Persepolis*
Ratatouille*
The Simpsons Movie
...and Surf's Up!

2/3. Surf's Up!? WTF!? Whatever, with 5 nods, the Rat's got this thing sewn up.


FOREIGN FILM
I am boycotting this category in protest.

So I'm 31/40 in the main categories (32/40 if you give me 1/2 credit for my alternates)... I basically went 4/5 everywhere, but for my perfect score in original screenplay (yay!) and my 3/5 screwups in supporting actress and director (shoulda gone with Gilroy and Dee, who I had as alternates... and don't get me started on Ronan).

But anyway, these are good nominations, barring the occasional Cate Blanchett, Surf's Up, Norbit, etc. Overall, the academy seems to know what they're doing this year. And what exactly is happening with best picture? I could still see a No Country sweep (it could easily take best pic, director, screenplay, supporting actor, cinematography, editing), but it does seem to have been knocked off its frontrunner perch a bit lately, losing the GG and now sharing "critical favorite" status with There Will Be Blood. So really, I could see almost anything winning now. Maybe the two critics' films will split that vote and hand it to either Atonement or Juno? Very possible. And how crazy is it that Juno has a best director nom??? Crazy.

I'm also wondering if Julie Christie still has her second best actress oscar coming. With Page, Cotillard and now Linney all splitting the dissenting vote, I think it'll still go to Christie, but it could go any which way. ESPECIALLY if there's a huge wave of Juno love on the horizon. Page might win the SAG award, in which case all bets are off.

How exciting.

Now let's just pray that the oscars actually happen...