Thursday, December 01, 2005

(final) NBR predictions

OK. I'm going to put out National Board of Review predictions now. I don't know why I love predicting the NBR so much... I guess because it's the very first thing, so it could go literally any which way, even though they do show definite trends. So anyway:

#1: Brokeback Mountain
#2: Capote
#3: Munich
#4: Match Point
#5: Walk The Line
#6: Crash
#7: The White Countess
#8: Goodnight, and Good Luck
#9: Memoirs of a Geisha
#10: The Constant Gardener

Pride & Prejudice
The Family Stone
Cinderella Man

INDIVIDUAL CATEGORIES (one prediction and two alternates each)

Best Actor: Ralph Feinnes for The Constant Gardener and The White Countess
alternates: PS Hoffman and Joaquin Phoenix

Best Actress: Joan Allen for The Upside of Anger, Off The Map, and Yes
alt: Felicity Huffman and Reese Witherspoon

Supporting Actor: George Clooney for GNaGL and Syriana
alt: Paul Giamatti and Bob Hoskins

Supporting Actress: Scarlett Johannson for Match Point
alt: Maria Bello and Michelle Williams

Best Director: James Mangold for Walk The Line
alt: James Ivory, Ang Lee

Original Screenplay: The Squid and the Whale
alt: Crash, Match Point

Adapted Screenplay: Munich
alt: Brokeback Mountain, Memoirs of a Geisha

(...or if these categories are joined into just "screenwriter of the year", then that would be Woody Allen for Melinda & Melinda and Match Point)

Production Design: Memoirs of a Geisha
alt: The New World, King Kong

Animated Feature: Wallace & Gromit
alt: Howl's Moving Castle, Corpse Bride

Ensemble Acting: Crash
alt. The Family Stone, Pride & Prejudice

Music Composition (if they do it, it'll definitely be): John Williams for (deep breath) Memoirs of a Geisha, Munich, Star Wars Episode IV: The Return of the Sith, and War of the Worlds (phew)

Special Achievement in Filmmaking: Woody Allen for Match Point
alt. Paul Haggis for Crash, George Clooney for GNaGL

Breakthrough Actor: Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
(just changed this... I believe in him more now, even though he's been famous for years and doesn't belong here)
alt: Cillian Murphy, Terrence Howard

Breakthrough Actress: Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
(changed my mind... this is technically a film breakthrough, since her only other claim to fame is on TV, plus it's been called a "breakthrough performance" many times in reviews, so I think they'd go for her here)
alt: Keira Knightley, Q'Orianka Kilcher

Directorial Debut: Bennett Miller, Capote
alt: Joe Wright, Pride & Prejudice

Career Achievement: James Ivory and Ishmael Merchant
alt: Shirley MacLaine

These are my final predictions. I am sticking to them.

More on these when the actual awards come to pass.


Blogger Kamikaze Camel said...

Okay, I'm following your thought.

Obviously, I have much different predix. I didn't do alternates though cause that's giving the NBR way too much to work with.

I think the strangest of my predix was Zhang Ziyi for Supporting Actress in 2046.

1:29 AM  
Blogger adam k. said...

I haven't seen 2046 (bad me) so I'm neither here nor there on Ziyi.

I have this weird Michelle Williams vibe for NBR supporting actress, but I doubt they'll choose both her and the movie... and I'm sticking with the movie.

I'm thinking of changing breakthrough actor to Ledger, though. It's a very Theron in Monster kind of situation in terms of where he was in his career.

1:43 AM  
Blogger Kamikaze Camel said...

I'd say Theron's career was in much better shape than Ledger's was before this year. She was at least appearing in some box-office hits.

Well, i have Ledger as Best Actor on my predix so that's why I didn't go with Michelle, but I can definitely see that happening. I mean, obviously I'm gonna be off on 95% of my predix. That's the NBR for ya.

8:55 AM  

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