(final) NBR predictions
OK. I'm going to put out National Board of Review predictions now. I don't know why I love predicting the NBR so much... I guess because it's the very first thing, so it could go literally any which way, even though they do show definite trends. So anyway:
TOP TEN LIST
#1: Brokeback Mountain
#2: Capote
#3: Munich
#4: Match Point
#5: Walk The Line
#6: Crash
#7: The White Countess
#8: Goodnight, and Good Luck
#9: Memoirs of a Geisha
#10: The Constant Gardener
alternates:
Pride & Prejudice
The Family Stone
Cinderella Man
INDIVIDUAL CATEGORIES (one prediction and two alternates each)
Best Actor: Ralph Feinnes for The Constant Gardener and The White Countess
alternates: PS Hoffman and Joaquin Phoenix
Best Actress: Joan Allen for The Upside of Anger, Off The Map, and Yes
alt: Felicity Huffman and Reese Witherspoon
Supporting Actor: George Clooney for GNaGL and Syriana
alt: Paul Giamatti and Bob Hoskins
Supporting Actress: Scarlett Johannson for Match Point
alt: Maria Bello and Michelle Williams
Best Director: James Mangold for Walk The Line
alt: James Ivory, Ang Lee
Original Screenplay: The Squid and the Whale
alt: Crash, Match Point
Adapted Screenplay: Munich
alt: Brokeback Mountain, Memoirs of a Geisha
(...or if these categories are joined into just "screenwriter of the year", then that would be Woody Allen for Melinda & Melinda and Match Point)
Production Design: Memoirs of a Geisha
alt: The New World, King Kong
Animated Feature: Wallace & Gromit
alt: Howl's Moving Castle, Corpse Bride
Ensemble Acting: Crash
alt. The Family Stone, Pride & Prejudice
Music Composition (if they do it, it'll definitely be): John Williams for (deep breath) Memoirs of a Geisha, Munich, Star Wars Episode IV: The Return of the Sith, and War of the Worlds (phew)
Special Achievement in Filmmaking: Woody Allen for Match Point
alt. Paul Haggis for Crash, George Clooney for GNaGL
Breakthrough Actor: Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
(just changed this... I believe in him more now, even though he's been famous for years and doesn't belong here)
alt: Cillian Murphy, Terrence Howard
Breakthrough Actress: Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
(changed my mind... this is technically a film breakthrough, since her only other claim to fame is on TV, plus it's been called a "breakthrough performance" many times in reviews, so I think they'd go for her here)
alt: Keira Knightley, Q'Orianka Kilcher
Directorial Debut: Bennett Miller, Capote
alt: Joe Wright, Pride & Prejudice
Career Achievement: James Ivory and Ishmael Merchant
alt: Shirley MacLaine
These are my final predictions. I am sticking to them.
More on these when the actual awards come to pass.
posted by adam k. @ 1:49 AM
3 Comments:
Okay, I'm following your thought.
Obviously, I have much different predix. I didn't do alternates though cause that's giving the NBR way too much to work with.
I think the strangest of my predix was Zhang Ziyi for Supporting Actress in 2046.
I haven't seen 2046 (bad me) so I'm neither here nor there on Ziyi.
I have this weird Michelle Williams vibe for NBR supporting actress, but I doubt they'll choose both her and the movie... and I'm sticking with the movie.
I'm thinking of changing breakthrough actor to Ledger, though. It's a very Theron in Monster kind of situation in terms of where he was in his career.
I'd say Theron's career was in much better shape than Ledger's was before this year. She was at least appearing in some box-office hits.
Well, i have Ledger as Best Actor on my predix so that's why I didn't go with Michelle, but I can definitely see that happening. I mean, obviously I'm gonna be off on 95% of my predix. That's the NBR for ya.
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