SAG nominees for Best Actress

I suddenly have the feeling that the five SAG nominees will be:

Joan Allen, The Upside of Anger
Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
Q'Orianka Kilcher, The New World
Reese Witherspoon, Walk The Line

Don't know why the sudden confidence. It's certainly premature. But I think I kinda know how the SAG committee thinks at this point. The last few years have revealed a lot.

Reese is a no-brainer, and will probably win this (based on the box office of the film and her general popularity, not to mention quality of performance).

Huffman, I think, will gain enough steam to at least be nominated, and could beat Reese if she really ignites. They already know her from Desperate Housewives and might admire her breakthrough into film. It's the kind of thing they like to recognize (even PS Hoffman in Flawless was SAG nommed when his chances with oscar weren't great).

Dench should be here because everyone loves her and she's the centerpiece of her film, though I don't think she has much chance of winning.

Allen might be wishful thinking, but with a likely globe drama nod (and perhaps a win), she should have enough momentum to place here, even if she's not their favorite performer. It's true that this category likes earlybirds.

And as for Kilcher... I just think they'll eat her up. The SAGs have shown no bias against youngsters (they nommed BOTH Keisha and Evan Rachel in their year, as well as Catalina Moreno), and they often choose candidates ignored by the globes. Her film will have to make waves, obviously, but if it does, I think Kilcher has a better shot here than, say, Knightley. I'm losing some faith in Knightley now that it's clear she'll be in the comedy field (and will probably not win that globe)... I think she'll look like "just nother comedy nominee" and people won't take her seriously because she's... well... Keira Knightley. Kilcher has that kind of exoticism and mystery that makes people want to vote for her; they'll feel like they're doing something cool.

And Paltrow, Theron, Richardson, etc. have done nothing to convince me that people will want to reward them come SAG time. For the former two, it's that issue of "you've already won, so now you'll have to REALLY impress me" and with Natasha, well, nothing's happening with that film. We'll see.

But for right now, I feel eerily confident in these five. Will that be the oscar lineup, too?