Oscar charts: Best Original Screenplay

THE FIVE (3/5=60%)
1) The Queen (=)
2) Little Miss Sunshine (=)
3) Babel (=)
4) Letters from Iwo Jima (+4)
5) Pan's Labyrinth (+1)

UPDATE (1/23): Oh well. Very sad about United and especially Volver (it deserved to win here), but these are still good nominees. I'm so glad Stranger Than Fiction didn't place. And I continue to be amazed at how everyone assumed Letters was totally out of it, when lo and behold, it even shows up here (don't get me wrong, I bought into the "Letters is dead" theory, too, but at least it took me longer).

Anyway, the win seems like a crap shoot between The Queen and Little Miss Sunshine, with Letters a possible dark horse spoiler. I'd personally prefer that Little Miss Sunshine take this, now that Volver is out of it. We'll see...

UPDATE (1/20): Hmmm... I feel like I'm off by one here... but this is the best combo I could come up with. Letters takes a dive in this category after being ignored by all the guilds. United 93 seems primed to get a consolation nod here for Greengrass in place of best director... or perhaps a second nod. And I'm betting Pedro's reputation and the strength of Volver's screenplay will allow it to hold off late-surging Pan's Labyrinth, which didn't have all this buzz back when voters were turning in their ballots. And I'm just hoping the trite and treacly Stranger Than Fiction script is snubbed. I think it will be.

UPDATE (1/5): Not much to report here. The top 3 are very much locked, Letters is looking very likely, and the 5th spot could go anywhere. I'm thinking it'll go to Volver (it certainly deserves it), but any of the others could get it, too. The WGA will shed some light on this close race.

UPDATE (12/16): The top three spots all seem locked. As for the last two, I think they'll go to to Volver (still looking strong for placement in this category, even if it's best picture hopes are waning) and Letters (apparently campaigning for this category, not adapted). Any of the lower-ranked titles could still swoop in and take one of those spots, but for now, they look like longshots. This category seems pretty firmed up.

UPDATE (12/3): Not much new to report. I'm adding Prairie because I think it's an original screenplay, but I'm not really sure. It still looks like the top four are safe, with the fifth slot up for grabs. It depends which films catch on. We'll see...

UPDATE (11/13): It seems that The Pursuit of Happyness is original after all, so it takes my 5th slot. Stranger Than Fiction and Bobby remain major threats. Babel also drops to #3 and Venus to #12... just feelin' 'em less, is all.

FIRST THOUGHTS: I believe in the top four; it's hard to see any of them missing. The last slot is anyone's guess. I'm currently guessing that it'll be Bobby. Stranger Than Fiction surely seems like the kind of script they'd honor, but I'm currently betting that it won't be well-recieved. United 93 is another possibility, but screenplay? Really? And for the rest, we just have to see how the films do.