Oscar Charts: Best Supporting Actress

THE FIVE (5/5=100%)
1) Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls) (=)
2) Abigail Breslin (Little Miss Sunshine) (+3)
3) Rinko Kikuchi (Babel) (=)
4) Adriana Barazza (Babel) (=)
5) Cate Blanchett (Notes) (-3)

UPDATE (1/23): 5/5, baby. Woop. But this was easy.

Anyway, Jennifer Hudson is still a lock to win it, but I think Abby Breslin will be getting her share of votes, hence her surge into 2nd place. Blanchett I don't think has a chance in hell (category fraud IS often frowned on in terms of actual wins, plus she just won here two years ago), hence her dive into 5th.

UPDATE (1/20): The consensus is that these five are IT, and I tend to agree. Though there's still a possibility that Breslin, Barrazza or Kikuchi could be bumped for Blunt, O'Hara, Collette, or Farmiga. Collette in particular is one of those well-respected but undervalued talents, like Samantha Morton, who seems like she could ride industry goodwill to a surprise nod here for a well-loved film. But that would require bumping off her co-star, so... we'll see.

UPDATE (1/5): So Breslin finally scores. Nice. Her SAG nod suggests that she'll probably place for oscar, too... and to be honest, I couldn't be happier. I actually prefer her to Blunt... but a nom for either would be fine by me. Sadly, only one of them will make it, though, cause the other four slots seem pretty sealed. Blanchett locks in for #2, and Kikuchi and Barazza, while not quite locked, are both looking pretty darn safe. And Hudson, of course, will be winning. Start writing your speech now, Jen.

UPDATE (12/16): Interesting. Hudson and Blanchett seem like the only locks (and not even Blanchett, really); Breslin takes a dive after failing to get a globe or BFCA nod. Barazza and Kikuchi keep making all the lists, so it looks like they'll both make oscar (though that's far from certain). From there, it could go anywhere; both the Sunshine girls are now in play (though neither looks all that likely), Farmiga has the frontrunner film, O'Hara has a BFCA nod, the NBR win, and probably lots of goodwill, Thompson has a BFCA nod and her own uber-awesomeness, Epps has critical support, and of course BLUNT has the globe nom. Let's just say they stick with Blunt for oscar, however unlikely that may be.

UPDATE (12/3): Still very unclear. Hudson, Breslin, and Blanchett are all looking strong for nods (thanks to their borderline lead roles), but the other two slots are a mystery. As such, I've decided to just keep my lineup the way it is for now, though I don't pretend to know who #4 and #5 will be. I still say that Kikuchi and Barazza will cancel each other out, and Anika won't get in without Beyoncé... but the globes and BFCA will tell the tale.

UPDATE: (11/19): Lotsa changes. I let go of Phyllis Sommerville due to Little Children's general lack of traction (though I still wouldn't be shocked to see her pick up steam and make it). Also, Cate for Babel is gone, since it looks like her nom will definitely be coming from Notes. Other changes at the bottom of the chart include Frances De La Tour's exit (cause... whatever), and the appearance of Catherine O'Hara for FYC and Meryl for Prairie, cause in an up-in-the-air category, you can't exactly count them out.

FIRST THOUGHTS: This category is SO up in the air. I don't know what I'm doing. Beyond JHud, anything is possible. That said, Breslin has an edge, her film already having been released and loved. Blanchett is looking solid to snag the annual category fraud spot (but maybe voters won't buy it?). Sommerville I just have good feeling about (I think Little Children might find a late surge after critics' awards have been processed). And I'd like to think that they won't nominate Cruz without nominating Maura, too.

Of course, all the Babel girls are in play... but which one will stand out most? Even Blanchett could end up nominated for that film, if they don't buy the Notes fraud but want to nominate her anyway. Thompson I think lives or dies by the reception to her film as a whole, which I'm betting won't be great. And Noni Rose I think is more of a factor than people think, though I'm still not predicting her for a nod.

Gyllenhaal could resurge for WTC, but I think she will fall victim to bad films and vote splitting. Blunt, godwilling, might have a chance... but probably not. Weaver I guess might become a big story, but as of now, I'll believe it when I see it. De La Tour also lives or dies with her film... as does Bonnie Henna. And I've added Juliette Binoche for good measure... you never know with her. Oh, and Vera Farmiga, too. Man, this category is a mystery.

Thoughts?