Sunday, April 01, 2007

April Fools Oscar Predictions!

So I decided to try and officially beat Nathaniel to the punch this year in the April Fools year-in-advance game. Of course, I got most of my info on upcoming releases from his studio rundown page, so I can't take too much credit for anything I get right.

The omissions I feel worst about are Charlie Wilson's War (in every category) and Joseph Gordon-Levitt in The Lookout (I predicted the film in other categories but figured the best actor field would be too competitive). I don't feel too bad about leaving out Sweeney Todd... I just have a feeling it'll be a big miss... I didn't predict it in any category but best supporting actress for Bonham-Carter (I have an inkling she might actually steal the film and be the only one praised... plus I couldn't think of anyone else to predict instead).

My ballsiest prediction: Unconventional Bob Dylan biopic I'm Not There gets several major noms, including Best Picture. I think it's high time a Todd Haynes film got some oscar love. His last three films ALL deserved nominations for oscar's highest honor, and were all overlooked, but I think this time might be different, due to the combo of:

1) biopic of VERY famous and revered musician (Ray & Walk the Line were oscar hits)

2) lots of major stars (Bale, Blanchett, Brody, Gere, Ledger, Williams, etc.)

3) Harvey Weinstein (who, incidentally, wanted to distribute Haynes' last film, the oscar-worthy Far From Heaven)

If it's brilliant (highly likely) and they're able to sell it and campaign it effectively (also likely, with Weinstein onboard), it could be a major event. And if it's placed in comedy/musical at the globes, that can only help... LOTS of room there for stars to get noms if some go lead, and of course for the pic itself to grab a spot.

Anyway, predictions are all laid out on the sidebar (right below the new "favorite actors" lists, and above "the usual suspects"); you can scroll down to see them. I've chucked the old system of linking to each category's page, and just made everything visible on the sidebar instead. I'll only change these only every few months, probably, until waaaaaay later in the year.

UPDATE: Here are official year-in-advance predictions, to be preserved until nomination day and then uncovered to check my success rate:

The Golden Age
I'm Not There
Lions for Lambs
There Will Be Blood
Youth Without Youth
(probably should've predicted: Atonement, Rendition)

Cronenberg (Eastern Promises)
Haynes (I'm Not There)
Redford (Lions for Lambs)
P. T. Anderson (There Will Be Blood)
F. F. Coppola (Youth Without Youth)
(probably should've predicted: Joe Wright for Atonement)

Bale (Rescue Dawn)
Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood)
Ganz (Youth Without Youth)
Joaquin Phoenix (Reservation Road)
Denzel Washington (American Gangster)
(probably should've predicted: Clooney, Gordon-Levitt)

Blanchett (Golden Age)
Cotillard (La Vie En Rose)
Jolie (A Mighty Heart)
Moore (Savage Grace)
Streep (Lions for Lambs)
(probably should've predicted: Christie, Knightley)

Bosco (The Savages)
Daniels (The Lookout)
Dano (There Will Be Blood)
Owen (The Golden Age)
Ruffalo (Reservation Road)
(probably should've predicted: Redford, or someone from I'm Not There)

Blanchett (I'm Not There)
Bonham-Carter (Sweeney Todd)
Garai (Atonement)
Morton (The Golden Age)
Redgrave (Evening)
(probably should've predicted: Redgrave for Atonement)

I'm Not There
Lions for Lambs
The Lookout
Margot at the Wedding
The Savages
(probably should've predicted: Rendition, Michael Clayton)

The Kite Runner
Reservation Road
There Will Be Blood
Youth Without Youth
(probably should've predicted: Evening, Charlie Wilson's War)

Shrek the Third
The Simpsons Movie
(I really think these three'll actually make it)

Note how I'm already second guessing myself... one thing I forgot to do is think about each separate studio and how they'll all try to have a big film in play. Focus' Atonement will probably be bigger than I'm assuming. But these were my original predictions and they are official. Enough with this insane exercise. In 9 months, we'll see how I do.

Questions? Agreement? Dischord? Leave all your thoughts down in the comments.

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Blogger RC said...

that is bold...

we'll see...

Interesting on I'm Not There loving.

we'll see, but a best pic nod for it...yikes...a director nod would totally have to come first.

1:33 PM  
Blogger adam k. said...

Yeah, a lone director nod is probably more likely, but something comedic or musical is almost always in the lineup, and I'm counting on a strong campaign and immense Bob Dylan love to carry I'm Not There in to the mainstream.

4:14 PM  

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